317 ships hit in six months as the Black Sea war widens
The Black Sea’s danger zone now runs past Constanta’s front door
Russia and Ukraine hit 317 merchant and other vessels in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov between May and October 2026. That figure comes from Ambrey Analytics, a shipping security firm, and was reported by Reuters on 3 November. In the six months before, the count was 74. So the rate of hits has more than quadrupled. In October, Russia hit 38 vessels and Ukraine hit 5.
Our view is simple. Until now, most forwarders treated the Black Sea war as a Ukrainian-port problem. Cargo to Odesa was risky. Cargo to Romania and Bulgaria was mostly fine. That split no longer holds. The October strikes landed off NATO coasts, on the routes into Constanta, Varna and Burgas. Western Black Sea cargo now carries direct attack risk, and pricing, insurance and routing will start to show it.
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What the numbers show
The Reuters report, by Tom Balmforth and Luiza Ilie, sets out the scale. Ambrey’s count of 317 vessels hit covers “merchant and other vessels”. That wording matters: not every hit was a cargo ship. But the trend is clear.
The split between the two sides has also swung. In the third quarter, Reuters reports, Ukraine carried out 137 attacks on ships and Russia 92. In October, the balance flipped: Russia 38, Ukraine 5.
Location matters more than totals for forwarders. Reuters reports “seven strikes on cargo ships near NATO members Romania and Bulgaria last month”. One ship was struck on 23 October just outside Romanian waters. The following week, a Greek container ship was sunk by naval drones in Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone (the sea area, up to 200 nautical miles out, where a country controls resources). Ambrey said a naval drone seen in video of that last strike resembled a Russian variant. Russia denies targeting Ukraine’s neighbours.
Analysts read this as a step up. “I think it’s undeniably an escalation,” said Sidharth Kaushal, a senior fellow at RUSI, the London defence think tank. Iulia Joja of the Middle East Institute told Reuters the attacks were about testing Western red lines. “This is about testing these red lines,” she said. She also noted that NATO had not reinforced Romania the way it has reinforced the Baltic states and Poland, despite requests from Bucharest. Reuters adds that the US withdrew 1,000 troops from Romania last year.
NATO’s answer so far is surveillance, not escort. The alliance said it would deploy maritime patrol aircraft, radars and drones to its eastern flank in the Black Sea. A NATO official called its commitment to defend all members “ironclad”. Reuters adds that NATO has committed to invest more than $40 billion in counter-drone capabilities over the next five years. Patrol aircraft and radars help spot threats. They do not stop a sea drone hitting a box ship tomorrow.
The Contship Jet: what happens to the cargo
The Greek container ship sunk in Bulgaria’s zone was the Contship Jet. The Maritime Executive reports that it was Greek-owned and sailing for Zim. It was hit by three sea drones and sank about 16 nautical miles offshore on 29 October, roughly 12 hours later. It reportedly had 421 containers on board.
The manifest listed hazardous cargo, according to The Maritime Executive: flammable liquids and gases, non-flammable gases and lithium-ion batteries. Other reports mentioned general cargo, including Christmas goods bound for Romania.
Now the boxes are coming ashore. As the ship listed and drifted south, more than 20 containers reportedly fell overboard. At least four were seen drifting by Sunday 1 November. The first came ashore that day and lodged in rocks; media reports said it held Christmas trees. A frame carrying a large tank also washed up. On Monday 2 November, another container became stuck near shore at Tsarevo. The navy planned to inspect it, but shallow water and rough seas made access hard. Bad weather has also stopped any survey of the wreck, so its depth is not yet known. Bulgarian authorities say they cannot predict how many more boxes will surface. Fuel still on board remains a worry.
For shippers with cargo on that ship, we think the picture is grim. Most of the 421 boxes went down with the hull. Cargo owners should expect a total loss on those goods. They should also be ready for salvage and wreck costs to be shared out. Under general average, a centuries-old maritime rule, all cargo owners on a voyage can be asked to share the cost of saving the ship or removing the wreck. Forwarders who arranged that cargo should be checking now which clients held cargo insurance, and getting claims papers in order. Clients without cover may face both the loss and a bill.
Grain is the other half of the story
The war at sea is also choking the trade that built these routes. Reuters reports that Russia exported 0.3 million tonnes of grain via the Black Sea and Sea of Azov in September, down from 4.74 million a year earlier. Ukraine’s port grain exports were 0.81 million tonnes in September, against 2.1 million a year earlier.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy put it bluntly. “Everyone is talking about diesel and forgetting about grain,” he said. He also warned: “In a month or two, everyone will start talking about an agricultural crisis.” Turkey is waiting for replies to a narrow maritime ceasefire proposal. Russia has rejected it, according to Reuters.
Grain is mostly a bulk trade, not a container trade. But it matters to forwarders for two reasons. First, falling bulk volumes mean fewer ships calling, which raises the cost per call for whatever services remain. Second, a food price shock in importing countries in North Africa and the Middle East would hit demand on lanes many forwarders work.
Insurance and surcharges: where the costs show up
War-risk insurance is the first cost to move. War risk is extra cover a shipowner buys to sail into a conflict zone, priced as a share of the ship’s value per voyage. On 8 October, UkrAgroConsult, citing freight broker Konstantin Sobol, reported that insurance costs for vessels in the Black Sea had risen from 0.1% to 0.5% of vessel value over two weeks. Market participants expected it to reach at least 1%, though that was a forecast. Those figures came before the Contship Jet sinking.
There is history here. In December 2025, after Ukraine claimed attacks on two Russian shadow-fleet tankers, India Seatrade News reported that cover for Black Sea port calls had more than tripled in days. Citing Marsh figures through media reports, it said rates had gone from about 0.25% to 0.3% of a ship’s value to up to 1% for some Ukrainian ports. Back then the jump was concentrated on Ukrainian ports. This time the attacks sit off Romania and Bulgaria, so we expect the pricing to follow them west.
MSC already charges extra on these routes. Its customer advisory of 3 September adds a piracy risk surcharge of $55 per TEU (twenty-foot equivalent unit, a standard container measure) and a Suez Canal surcharge of $36 per TEU on cargo from Asia. It lists Constanta, Varna, Burgas and Odessa among its destinations, effective from 15 September 2026 “until further notice”. Those charges reflect the Red Sea and Suez route, not drones off Bulgaria. A Black Sea war-risk charge would be a new, separate line on the invoice.
What forwarders should do now
Our view is that forwarders should treat western Black Sea bookings the way they treated Red Sea bookings in early 2024. That means four practical steps.
Check cargo insurance on every open Black Sea shipment, and push clients without cover to buy it. A total loss with no cover is the worst call a forwarder can have with a shipper.
Read carrier terms for war-risk clauses. Most bills of lading let a carrier divert, discharge early or add surcharges if a route becomes dangerous. Clients should know that before it happens.
Price in a surcharge now on quotes for Constanta, Varna and Burgas with validity past mid-November, or quote with a clear surcharge clause.
Map the alternatives. Cargo for Romania and Bulgaria can move through Adriatic or Aegean ports such as Koper, Trieste or Piraeus, then on by rail or truck. That costs more and takes longer, but it is a real option if feeders start skipping calls.
What we expect next
The drivers of risk are all pointing the same way. The hit count has quadrupled. The attacks have moved into NATO members’ waters. A container ship has been sunk, and its boxes are washing up on a NATO beach. NATO’s response is surveillance, and Turkey’s ceasefire idea has been rejected by Moscow. Nothing on the table removes the threat in the next few weeks.
Carriers cannot absorb rising war-risk premiums on thin Black Sea volumes for long. Feeder operators, who run smaller ships on short shuttle services, are the most exposed: one sinking can wipe out a large part of a small fleet’s earnings.
Our prediction: by 30 November, at least one of the ten biggest container lines will announce a war-risk or emergency surcharge on bookings to Constanta, Varna or Burgas. We also expect at least one feeder service to skip or suspend a western Black Sea call in the same window.
Sources
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