Geopolitics Oct 20, 2026 · 8 min read

Hormuz attacks climb while Washington waits for the midterms

Hormuz attacks are rising, and the US has ruled out striking Iran before 3 November. UKMTO, the UK navy’s shipping-security centre, logged 12 attacks on ships in the week to 17 October, 10 of them in the Strait of Hormuz. On 20 October Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said mines had stopped three more tankers. The same day the White House said it would not attack Iran before the 3 November midterms, while its blockade stays “in full force and effect”. Our view: that hands Iran a free fortnight. Gulf boxes stay on land-bridge routes via Khor Fakkan, Fujairah, Sohar and Jeddah. Our call: no regular container sailings through Hormuz before December.

Hormuz attacks are speeding up, and Washington has parked the war until after 3 November UKMTO, the UK navy’s shipping-security centre in the region, counted 12 attacks on merchant ships in the seven days to 17 October. Ten were in the Strait of Hormuz, one in the Gulf and one in the Gulf of Oman. UKMTO said one ship was lost and two were disabled. It also said it was “struggling to establish the actual number of attacks”, because “most targeted vessels declined to report incidents.” In our view the real figure is higher.
Then, on Tuesday 20 October, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said its mines had stopped three more tankers. The same day the White House said it would not attack Iran before the US midterm elections on 3 November.
Our view: those two facts belong together. Washington has told Tehran it has a fortnight with no US strikes. Iran is using that time to show it still controls the strait. For anyone moving boxes to or from the Upper Gulf, nothing gets easier before November. The next two weeks may well be the most dangerous of the war so far.

What Iran says happened this week

In a statement on its Sepah News website, the IRGC said: “Two violating oil tankers were set ablaze and halted due to the explosion of mines”. It placed them at what it called an illegal crossing point in the southern part of the strait, AFP reported via Al Arabiya. “Violating” here means ships using routes Tehran calls illegal, including a southern route near the Omani coast, without Iran’s authorisation, AFP reported.
A later IRGC statement on state TV said a third tanker “exploded and caught fire after striking a naval mine south of the Strait of Hormuz.” The IRGC said the ship was “carrying over two million barrels of crude oil, had deactivated all of its radar and navigation systems.”
Treat these claims with care. The IRGC named none of the ships. By Tuesday afternoon no shipping registry, insurer or flag state had confirmed any of them, HNGN reported. HNGN counts four tankers Iran says it has disabled since Friday 16 October, and Iran also says it shot down a US MQ-9 Reaper drone. Oil traders are discounting the IRGC claims until ships are named, HNGN said.
US Central Command (CENTCOM) has reported its own losses. It said the GFS Pride, a Singapore-flagged container ship, was hit by an Iranian projectile in the strait and sank while being towed ashore, Fox News reported. UKMTO also logged incidents outside the strait: off Saudi Arabia’s east coast near Al Jubail, a small-boat attack near Mukalla in Yemen, and a tug struck near Khor Fakkan in the UAE, according to HNGN. No one has claimed the Saudi attacks.

The attacks are getting more frequent and more damaging

The trend is clear. UKMTO reported 25 ships targeted in and around the strait in the first two weeks of October. That compares with 18 incidents in all of September and 15 in August, Bloomberg reported via gCaptain. Since the war began in late February, UKMTO has recorded 84 incidents in the strait, according to Anadolu’s report of the agency’s 17 October update.
The way ships are hit matters too. Jakob Larsen of the shipping association BIMCO said: “Attacks often focus on the engine room or the bridge of the ships”. He added that “there are significant risks of crew injuries when these areas of the ship are hit.” Phillip Belcher of Intertanko, the tanker owners’ group, put it simply: “What we’re seeing is an increase in the frequency of attacks”. Both were quoted on Fox News’s live page.
CENTCOM’s spokesman, Capt. Tim Hawkins, argued that most Iranian attempts fail. He said US forces have provided “coordinated protection for thousands of ships” that crossed safely. That may be true. But traffic is still about 70% below pre-war levels, UKMTO said. It counted 125 outbound and 129 inbound transits in the week to 17 October, down from 129 and 146 the week before. Before the war, about 125 large commercial ships crossed the strait every day, AAP reported. Today’s weekly total is roughly two pre-war days.

Why the midterm date matters

On 20 October Deputy White House press secretary Anna Kelly said: “Iran is in very bad condition – both economically and militarily”. She said “the blockade will remain in full force and effect”, and added: “The United States will not be attacking [Iran] at any time prior to the midterm elections”. The blockade she means is the US counter-blockade of Iranian ports and ships.
Tehran is not offering a way out either. Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran’s president, said: “Before any negotiations, they must first end the pressure and threats and lift sanctions”. Mohsen Rezaei, a senior Iranian official, said on X: “There will be no negotiations until the United States takes steps to build trust”. Qatar says contacts between Iran and the US continue, The National reported. Iran’s foreign minister said Tehran’s offer to reopen the strait within seven days is still on the table, HNGN reported. But Iranian officials told Reuters they are dragging out talks to weaken President Trump before the vote, according to HNGN.
Our reading: both capitals have pointed at 3 November. Iran has little reason to ease off before then, and the US has said it will not escalate. That is a two-week window with pressure from Iran and restraint from the US. A deal could follow the vote. But a deal on paper is not the same as insurers and carriers trusting the water again.
The blockade is biting Iran. No tanker has docked at Kharg Island’s crude terminals since late August, Bloomberg reported via gCaptain. Iran’s crude exports fell from almost 1 million barrels a day in July to nothing. That pain is real, but it has not yet changed Tehran’s position.

What happened last time

This war has already had one false dawn. In July a ceasefire briefly lifted the US blockade, and Iranian loadings bunched into the first half of that month, gCaptain reported. Then it collapsed. Marcus Baker, global head of marine at broker Marsh, said: “In the past few days rates have risen again following attacks on shipping by Iran in the region”. He put war-risk cover at “anywhere between 2% and 6%”, Insurance Business reported on 10 July. War-risk cover is the extra insurance a ship needs to enter a conflict zone, priced as a share of the ship’s value. At that top rate, a $100 million tanker would pay around $6 million for one transit, the publication said.
The lesson for forwarders: a pause is not a reopening. Carriers did not rush back in July, and they will not rush back the week after a November deal either.

What this means for your Gulf cargo

Most Gulf-bound containers have moved on workaround routes since 28 February. These are the routes to plan on through November:

East-coast discharge, then truck or feeder. Hapag-Lloyd transships UAE cargo at Fujairah or Khor Fakkan, outside the strait. Cargo for Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar and Bahrain goes the same way to Jebel Ali or Sharjah, then onto intra-Gulf feeder ships. The bonded truck leg takes about five days, Container News reported in July. Feeders do not run on a fixed weekly schedule.

Red Sea discharge, then land bridge. Dammam and Jubail cargo can still move via a Jeddah land bridge. But Hapag-Lloyd suspended cross-border hauls from Jeddah to the Upper Gulf “until further notice”. A Tradlinx guide also warned: “Cargo booked to Jeddah will not discharge there if the consignee is based in another Middle Eastern country.”

Surcharges stay on. DHL’s crisis page, last updated in May, listed an MSC “mandatory USD 800/container surcharge” on diverted Gulf shipments. It also warned of war-risk premiums, an emergency conflict surcharge from at least one carrier, and rising bunker charges.

Three practical steps follow. First, get reroute and land-bridge charges in writing before loading, because they vary by carrier, box type and destination. Second, check your cargo insurance for general average. General average is the old maritime rule that makes every cargo owner share the cost of saving a ship. If a box ship is hit and salvaged, you may be asked for a deposit before your cargo is released, even if your container was undamaged. The GFS Pride sinking shows this is not theoretical. Third, check vessel histories on anything you charter. The US Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, said on 19 October that the US is working with investors who buy idle sanctioned “dark fleet” tankers, refurbish them and use them for legal trade. “There is no removing of sanctions,” he said, Bloomberg reported via gCaptain. Ships with a sanctioned past may come back into legal trade.
Fuel is the other cost. Brent crude settled at $108.79 a barrel on 20 October, and November WTI at $101.79, Reuters figures on Fox News showed. Moving oil from the Gulf to East Asia costs more than six times as much as before the war, Bloomberg reported via gCaptain. That feeds straight into bunker surcharges on every lane, not just the Gulf.

Our prediction

We expect UKMTO’s weekly count to stay at 10 or more attacks in and around the strait in each week up to the 3 November vote. We expect Brent to stay above $100 a barrel through mid-November. And we do not expect any major carrier to restore a regular scheduled container service through Hormuz into the Upper Gulf before 1 December 2026, even if talks restart straight after the midterms. Plan Gulf deliveries on land-bridge timings and budget for surcharges until then.

Sources