Car carrier orders surge, but relief is a 2028 story

Car carriers: the ordering spree is real, the price relief is two years away

Shipowners ordered 82 car carriers in the first nine months of 2026. That is the count from Greek broker Intermodal, reported by The Loadstar on 26 October. In all of 2025, owners ordered nine. The 10-year average is 35 a year. So the industry has ordered more than twice a normal year’s ships in nine months, and about nine times last year’s total.

The orderbook now equals 26% of the existing fleet, Intermodal says. The historical average is 14%. That ratio, the orderbook-to-fleet ratio, compares ships on order with ships already sailing. A high number usually means more ships than cargo a few years later, and lower rates.

Our view is simple. The oversupply fear is justified, but it belongs to 2028. For the next 12 to 18 months the car-carrier market stays tight. If rates do fall sooner, it will be because of trade policy in Brussels and carmakers running their own ships, not because the new orders arrive.

What the numbers say

First, some terms. A PCTC is a pure car and truck carrier: a floating multi-storey car park that vehicles drive on and off. That is also why the trade is called ro-ro, short for roll-on/roll-off. Ship size is measured in CEU, or car equivalent units, roughly one small car each.

The key figure is timing. About 64% of the orderbook by tonnage is scheduled for delivery from 2028 onward, according to Intermodal via The Loadstar. Most of those 82 ships will not carry a car for at least two years.

Meanwhile the market is hot. The Loadstar reports ships fixing at about $95,000 a day on charter, close to the levels seen in 2024. A charter rate is what an operator pays a shipowner per day to hire a vessel. It feeds straight into what carriers charge cargo owners.

Demand explains it. China’s vehicle exports reached 8.2 million units in the first nine months of 2026, up 66% year on year, The Loadstar reports. Domestic sales of new-energy vehicles fell 9.4%, pushing carmakers to sell abroad. Diversions around the Cape of Good Hope have lengthened voyages and soaked up ships. Limited backhaul cargo, meaning little to carry on the return leg, makes it worse.

Other data points the same way. In July, ShipUniverse put the one-year time-charter index for a 6,500-CEU ship at about $63,000 a day, up about 45% since the start of the year. It said PCTC fleet supply would grow about 7.6% in 2026. Exports are growing far faster than that.

What happened last time

This is not the first ordering wave. Veson Nautical’s Dan Nash, quoted by Riviera, said “shipowners virtually stopped ordering vessels last year” “following three years of strong newbuilding activity between 2022 and 2024,” “which pushed the orderbook-to-fleet ratio to around 40%.”

The ratio then drained away as those ships delivered. Veson’s data, reported by Riviera, put it at about 20.4% in CEU terms more recently, after an April low of 20.2%, the lowest since December 2022. The two firms may measure on different bases, so Veson’s figure and Intermodal’s 26% are not a like-for-like comparison. But both suggest the ratio has turned up since its spring low. Riviera also reported that a standard car carrier was earning about $61,700 a day on a one-year charter, the highest in more than a year, and that values for a 2010-built 6,500-CEU ship rose about 11% in the first half of 2026. High rates and rising second-hand prices are the classic trigger for a newbuilding wave.

That earlier wave was bigger in ratio terms than today’s 26%. Many of those ships have been delivered. Yet rates are still near 2024 levels. Chinese exports grew fast enough to absorb them.

Nash’s explanation for the new orders: “Shipowners are buying back into the mantra that China will continue exporting and demand will remain firm.” He also said owners are “prepared to wait up to three years for delivery.”

That is the lesson we draw. Last time, a 40% ratio did not crash the market, because demand kept climbing. This time the bet rests on one exporter and one assumption: that China keeps shipping more cars every year. If that holds, 2028 deliveries get absorbed too. If it breaks, the 2028 ships arrive into a weaker market.

The real near-term risk: Europe

The bigger danger to car-carrier demand sits closer than 2028. The EU and China have reportedly reached a preliminary understanding on restricting Chinese conventional and plug-in hybrid vehicles, The Loadstar reports. It would cap imports at 350,000 units a year at first, rising 6% a year over four years. It could take effect in December. Battery-electric vehicles would stay under separate anti-subsidy duties.

Intermodal puts projected Chinese hybrid imports into Europe at about 800,000 units in 2026. Against that, it says “these measures could significantly constrain shipment growth along the China-Europe corridor.”

Intermodal adds: “The impact on car-mile demand will largely depend on manufacturers’ ability to redirect exports to alternative markets.” Car-mile demand means cars shipped multiplied by distance sailed. China to Europe is a long haul. Swap it for shorter routes and the same number of cars uses fewer ship-days.

Our read: carmakers will redirect. ShipUniverse reported Chinese exports to Brazil up about 235% in January to May. Latin America, the Middle East and Africa are all growing markets. But some of those routes are shorter than China–Europe via the Cape. So the cap could cut ship demand even if total export numbers keep rising.

Carmakers and carriers want their own ships

The second pressure is captive fleets: ships owned or controlled by the cargo owner rather than chartered from the market. BYD and SAIC Motor are expanding theirs, The Loadstar reports. That could reduce their need for chartered ships and change demand for third-party tonnage, even if Chinese exports keep rising.

Container lines are moving in too. CMA CGM chief executive Rodolphe Saadé told Lebanon’s L’Orient-Le Jour the group wants 21 PCTCs in the coming years, The Loadstar reports. Its logistics arm CEVA already operates 11. MSC’s Global Car Carriers has ordered eight dual-fuel LNG ships across Chinese yards, according to Riviera.

Our view: this matters more for forwarders than the headline order count. When the largest carmakers and container lines control their own car ships, the open market shrinks. Independent shippers, smaller brands and used-car exporters compete for what is left. In a tight year, that means higher prices. In a loose year from 2028, it means captive fleets fill their own ships first and the spot market takes the hit.

What it means for forwarders

Start with containers. Veson’s Nash, via Riviera, said more than 10% of China’s car exports move on container ships because there is not enough ro-ro capacity. He called this “a structural constraint that underscores the fleet’s inability to keep pace with demand.” ShipUniverse estimated about 2 million Chinese vehicles would move by alternative modes in 2026, mainly containers, up from more than 1 million in 2025.

For forwarders, that is business. Cars in boxes need lashing, racking, documentation and port handling that forwarders sell. We expect that work to hold up through 2027, because ro-ro space will not loosen before the new ships come.

Second, anything else that rolls. Ro-ro ships also carry high-and-heavy cargo: tractors, excavators, buses and other rolling machinery. When car volumes fill the decks, that cargo competes for the same space. Forwarders quoting project or machinery moves on ro-ro should expect firm rates and fewer sailings to pick from through 2027.

Third, Europe-bound hybrids. If the EU cap starts in December, China-to-Europe ro-ro demand could soften first. That may free some space on that corridor, while routes to Latin America and the Middle East tighten as volumes get redirected. Lane by lane, the picture will split.

Fourth, 2028. When 64% of the orderbook lands, the balance shifts. If Chinese exports stall, ro-ro rates could fall sharply and cars could move back out of containers into cheaper car-carrier space. Forwarders who built a container-vehicle offering should plan for that volume to shrink then.

Our prediction

We expect car-carrier fixtures to stay above $80,000 a day through the end of March 2027, even if the EU hybrid cap takes effect in December. The ships that could change that are not due until 2028, and Chinese exports are still growing fast enough to keep today’s fleet full.

The first real test comes in the second half of 2028. If Chinese exports stop growing by then, we expect charter rates to fall below the roughly $63,000-a-day level the one-year index showed in July 2026.

Sources

• \
• The Loadstar — Car carrier orderbook surge raises oversupply fears, 26 Oct 2026 \
• World Ports (Riviera) — Chinese vehicle export boom fuels PCTC newbuilding revival, 2026 \
• ShipUniverse — China’s Car Export Boom Could Send Record 2 Million Vehicles by Container in 2026, 21 Jul 2026