Thursday, November 12, 2026
The news that moves freight
Air Nov 12, 2026 · 6 min read

Singapore Airlines cargo revenue up 30%

Singapore Airlines is earning more per kilo, not flying more kilos, and the premium has peaked

Singapore Airlines Group’s cargo revenue rose 30.2% to S$1,394minthesixmonthsto30September2026.ThatisS$323m more than a year earlier. It came with no extra cargo capacity at all, according to the half-year results released on 11 November and reported by AsiaOne and Connected to India.

That one fact says a lot about Asian air freight right now. In our view, this was a price windfall, not a volume boom. The carrier chose margin over growth. The figures also show the windfall is already past its peak. Forwarders should plan for space that stays tight and expensive, but for rate premiums that ease rather than climb.

What SIA reported

The group covers Singapore Airlines and its low-cost arm, Scoot. It posted record half-year revenue of S$11,297m,up16.8%,ConnectedtoIndiareports.Profitwenttheotherway.Operatingprofitfell29.1%toS$569m. Net profit fell 43.9% to S$134m.

The cargo lines were the bright spot:

  • Cargo revenue: S$1,394m, up 30.2%.
  • Cargo yields: up 25.4%. A yield is the revenue earned for each tonne carried one kilometre. It is the closest thing an airline publishes to an average rate.
  • Cargo loads: up 4%, with capacity “flat”, Connected to India reports.
  • Cargo load factor: 58.5%, up 2 percentage points. The load factor is the share of available cargo space that was actually filled.

So almost all of the extra money came from charging more, not carrying more. Loads up 4% and yields up 25.4% roughly multiply out to the 30% revenue gain.

AsiaOne reports that cargo demand “has been firm owing to semiconductor and cloud computing-related flows.” That echoes what SIA said in July. In its first-quarter release it said cargo demand “shows resilience across most key verticals”, with “semiconductor and data centre-related movements providing support.”

The fuel bill explains the discipline

Why not add capacity when yields are rising this fast? The fuel bill is the answer.

Jet fuel averaged US$171abarreloverthehalf,up86.7%yearonyear,ConnectedtoIndiareports.FuelcostbeforehedgingroseS$2,233m, or 90.3%. AsiaOne puts the total at “over $4.7 billion”. SIA’s July release dates the spike to the Middle East conflict that began on 28 February 2026.

Hedging softened the blow. Hedging means buying fuel at fixed prices in advance. Last year SIA’s hedges lost money. This year they produced a S$806mgain.ThatheldthenetfuelbilltoS$3,974m, up 56%, Connected to India reports. Even so, profit was badly dented.

At those fuel prices, every extra freighter rotation or added belly flight costs a lot to run. Belly capacity means cargo carried in the hold of a passenger plane. Filling existing space at higher yields is the cheaper path, and SIA took it. The group said it “will maintain disciplined cost management to reinforce its long-term competitive position.” We read that as a plain signal: do not expect SIA to add cargo capacity to grab share.

The quarter-by-quarter picture: the peak was spring

Here is the angle the headline numbers hide. SIA published its first quarter (April–June) separately on 28 July. Put that next to the half-year and you can see the second quarter (July–September) on its own.

In Q1, SIA said cargo revenue “grew $178 million (+33.5%) to $708 million, driven by a 28.1% improvement in yields.” The cargo load factor was 58.8%. Loads rose 4.0% against capacity growth of 0.5%.

Our arithmetic from the two releases:

  • Q2 cargo revenue was about S$686m(S$1,394m less S$708m).ThatisaboutS$22m below Q1.
  • A year earlier, Q2 cargo revenue was about S$541m. So Q2 grew roughly 27% year on year, down from 33.5% in Q1.
  • Yields rose 28.1% in Q1 and 25.4% for the half. So yield growth in Q2 must have been below 25.4%.
  • The load factor was 58.8% in Q1 and 58.5% for the half. So Q2 was slightly less full than Q1.
  • Capacity grew 0.5% in Q1 and was flat for the half. So Q2 capacity held level or dipped slightly.

These are our own calculations from SIA’s reported figures, not numbers SIA printed.

The direction is clear. The biggest premium came in the spring, just after the conflict began and fuel had jumped. By the summer, SIA was still earning far more per kilo than a year earlier, but the gap was narrowing. July–September is also normally quieter than the run-up to year-end, so part of the dip is seasonal. Still, slowing year-on-year growth is not a seasonal effect. It means the market is adjusting.

The wider group results show the same pattern. Operating profit fell 73.8% in Q1 and then rose 16.3% in Q2, Connected to India reports. AsiaOne reports that Q2 operating profit was S$463monrevenueup14.3%toS$5.58bn. The worst of the fuel shock hit in the spring. By the summer, higher fares and rates had largely caught up with costs.

What it means for forwarders

Space on Asian carriers stays tight. A major Asian network carrier has shown it will hold capacity flat and accept 58.5% load factors rather than fly more space at today’s fuel prices. If others do the same, peak-season lift out of South-East Asia will stay rationed. Book early on Singapore-hub routings, and expect allocations rather than open space.

Fuel surcharges have a high floor. A US$171 average barrel is the cost base airlines are pricing against. Hedges cushioned SIA this year, but hedges roll off and get replaced at current prices. We would not plan on fuel surcharges falling much before 2027 unless crude drops sharply.

Gulf routings have less belly space. Scoot’s Jeddah flights and SIA’s Dubai flights remain suspended, and SIA’s Riyadh launch has been pushed back to March 2027, Connected to India reports. The group said it “will continue to monitor developments closely and adjust its schedules as appropriate.” For forwarders moving Asia–Middle East cargo, that means fewer passenger-hold options on these routes and more reliance on freighters or routings via other hubs.

Tech cargo is the anchor. Semiconductor and cloud-computing shipments are holding up demand. Those are high-value, time-critical goods that will pay air rates. That supports yields even as general cargo softens. Forwarders with tech customers will feel the squeeze on space most. Forwarders handling price-sensitive general cargo may find more room to negotiate as yield growth cools.

Carriers under profit pressure price hard. SIA’s net profit fell 43.9% even with a S$806mhedginggainandrecordrevenue.AsiaOnereportsthegrouppaidS$915m in ordinary and special dividends during the half, and holds S$8.98bn in cash and liquidity. The balance sheet is strong, so this is not a carrier in distress. But a board watching profit halve has little reason to discount cargo space. Cargo was one of the few lines that grew faster than costs. Expect SIA’s sales teams to defend that, especially on spot quotes into the December peak.

The fleet is not the constraint. AsiaOne reports that SIA and Scoot took delivery of two aircraft each in the second quarter, bringing the operating fleet to 224 passenger and freighter aircraft, with 58 more on order. Flat cargo capacity is therefore a choice about where and how often to fly, not a shortage of planes. If fuel eases, capacity could come back quickly. That is the main risk to our view below.

Rate talks get a little easier, not easy. Yield growth slowing from 28.1% to below 25.4% is a modest shift. It does suggest that by early 2027, carriers will find it harder to push year-on-year rate rises of the size seen in spring 2026. Shippers renewing contracts for 2027 have a data point to push back with.

Our call

SIA’s next update covers October–December 2026 and should arrive around February 2027. We expect it to show cargo yields still up year on year, but by less than 20%. That would be down from 28.1% in Q1 and the 25.4% half-year figure. We also expect cargo capacity to stay within 2% of last year’s level. In other words: no capacity surge, and a premium that keeps shrinking.

If yields come in above 20%, we would read that as a sign the Gulf disruption has deepened, not eased. Forwarders should then budget for tight, expensive Asian air space well into the first half of 2027.

Sources

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