Monday, November 2, 2026
The news that moves freight
Trade & Customs Nov 2, 2026 · 7 min read

Midterms and the US tariff stack

Tuesday’s vote won’t touch the tariff stack. Courts and USTR will.

Americans vote on Tuesday 3 November. Democrats need a net gain of four seats in each chamber to take Congress, Reuters reported on 1 November. Republicans currently hold the House 218-214 and the Senate 53-47. Opinion polls favour Democrats to win the House. The Senate, Reuters says, is too close to call.

Our view is plain. The result will change the trade debate in Washington. It will not change the duties your clients pay in 2027. Anyone budgeting landed costs for next year should assume today’s tariffs stay, and that new ones arrive by executive order rather than by law.

Why the numbers don’t add up for repeal

A US president can veto any bill. Congress can override a veto only with a two-thirds vote in both chambers. That is 290 of 435 House seats and 67 of 100 Senate seats.

Reuters says Democrats are far short of a veto-proof two-thirds majority in either chamber, even with gains on Tuesday. William Reinsch, a non-resident adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Reuters: “neither party will have a veto-proof majority in any scenario”.

So what would a Democratic Congress do? Reuters expects symbolic votes. The lead candidate is Sen. Chuck Schumer’s “End Trump’s Tariff Tax Act”. It would repeal two laws:

  • Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, used for the punitive tariffs on Canadian goods.
  • Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, used for the temporary 10% global tariff.

The bill has 28 co-sponsors, including Sen. Ron Wyden, the top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee. It also calls for refunds of all duties collected under those laws. Wyden said one of the most obvious priorities would be “repealing Trump’s tariffs on Canada, which are raising prices and harming communities on both sides of the border”.

Republicans see it differently. The White House says the tariff agenda is delivering results. Spokesman Matthew Middleton said in an emailed statement that “President Trump will never waver from putting America First”, adding: “That agenda has already secured almost 20 fair trade deals and trillions in manufacturing investments”.

Both positions will be argued loudly over the next two years. Neither changes the veto maths.

What happened last time Congress voted on tariffs

This is not theory. Congress has already voted against tariffs, and the duties stayed.

In October 2025 the Senate voted 50-46 to end the national emergency behind the Canada tariffs, the Associated Press reported. Four Republicans joined all Democrats. AP noted the resolutions “won’t ultimately take effect”. House leaders had adopted rules letting them block such votes, and the president could veto anything that passed.

In February 2026 the House voted 219-211 to end the same emergency and revoke the February 2025 order behind the Canada tariffs, News From The States reported. Six Republicans voted with Democrats. Rep. Gregory Meeks, the lead sponsor, said: “Canada isn’t a threat. Canada is our friend. Canada is our ally.”

What actually removed those tariffs was a court, not Congress. On 20 February 2026 the Supreme Court held that IEEPA (the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a sanctions law) does not authorise tariffs, according to a timeline from trade platform Tradlinx. Four days later the administration switched to Section 122, a 1974 law allowing temporary import surcharges.

That 10% surcharge came off on 24 July 2026, Tradlinx reports. New Section 301 duties took effect the same moment. Section 301 is the law that lets the US Trade Representative (USTR) act against trade practices it judges unfair. Those duties run at 10% or 12.5% depending on origin, across 60 economies covering 99.4% of US imports, according to Tradlinx.

Canada then got its own layer. A 50% tariff under Section 338 took effect on 22 August 2026, law firm Covington reported. Law firm Polsinelli says USTR estimates it covers nearly $20 billion of Canadian imports. It applies even to goods that qualify under USMCA, the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, apart from certain car parts, per Covington. Canada answered with counter-tariffs aimed at $27.6 billion of US goods.

Those Canadian duties were scheduled to take effect on 8 September, Covington reported. They cover more than 600 product categories, at rates of 15%, 25% or 50% depending on the product. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government also announced a C$7.5 billion support package for affected workers and businesses. So the Canada lane now carries tariffs in both directions. A southbound load of Canadian chemicals and a northbound load of US goods can both face new duties at the border. None of that sits in the bill Democrats plan to push. Canada’s counter-tariffs answer US action, and only a change in US action, or a negotiated deal, is likely to remove them.

The lesson for forwarders: each time one legal basis fell, another replaced it within days. Congressional votes made headlines. They did not move a single duty rate.

Where the real risk sits in 2027

If Congress is not the lever, three things are.

First, new executive action. Reuters says the White House plans to lean more on executive action and flags a forthcoming investigation into excess industrial capacity in 16 major trading partners. Tradlinx says USTR has a separate Section 301 investigation open into excess capacity across 16 major trading partners, and that any duties from it “could add another product- and origin-specific layer to the tariff stack”. Tradlinx gives no timeline or rate.

Second, the courts. Section 338 had never been used before this year. Polsinelli calls it an “untested authority” and says “legal challenge is nearly guaranteed”. The Supreme Court has already struck down one tariff basis. A ruling against Section 338 would hit Canada-US lanes far harder than any midterm result.

Third, oversight. Committee control lets the majority call hearings and demand documents. Reuters lists likely targets: tariff exemptions granted to specific companies, the effect of tariffs on small businesses, and investment funds worth hundreds of billions of dollars pledged by Japan, South Korea and other partners.

Hearings on exemptions matter to importers. They could shine a light on how relief is granted and who gets it. That could make the process more open. It could also make officials more cautious about granting exemptions while under scrutiny.

What this means for forwarders and shippers

Start with the client conversation. Many importers hope a change in Congress means cheaper landed costs next year. It does not. Say so early, before annual contracts are set.

Practical steps:

  • Quote 2027 on current rates. Build landed-cost models on today’s Section 301, 338 and 232 (national security) duties, not on hoped-for repeal.
  • Map the stack by origin. A shipment from Canada can carry different layers from one from Vietnam or Japan. Tradlinx shows Section 301 rates alone differ by origin, and Covington notes Section 338 does not apply to goods already under Section 232 tariffs.
  • Keep entry records clean. The Schumer bill seeks refunds of duties paid under Sections 338 and 122. It is unlikely to become law. But court cases can also lead to refunds. Clients who can document what they paid, by entry, will be first in line if that happens.
  • Watch Canada lanes most closely. They carry the newest and least-tested tariff. Cross-border truck and rail customers face the most legal and price uncertainty.
  • Track the excess-capacity case. When USTR publishes a proposed action, there is usually a comment period. That is the window for clients to argue for exclusions.

Trading partners are getting the same advice. Milos Ivkovic, an adjunct professor at Washington University in St. Louis, told Reuters that a wait-and-see approach to the vote will not help holdouts such as India, Vietnam or Canada. Countries holding off on trade talks with the Trump administration “are actually jeopardizing their negotiations”, he said.

The longer horizon

None of this means the debate is pointless. Greta Peisch, a former USTR general counsel now at law firm Wiley Rein, told Reuters the bills could “form the basis of a proposal for the presidential elections”. She called this “the beginning of how Democrats, and Congress as a whole, think about whether and how to enact trade legislation” over the next two to four years.

Our reading: the real fight over who controls US tariffs is a 2028 story. For 2027, the stack belongs to the White House and the courts.

Our call

We expect no tariff-repeal bill, including the End Trump’s Tariff Tax Act, to reach the president’s desk by 31 March 2027, whoever wins on Tuesday. We also expect the overall US duty stack to be the same or higher on that date than it is today. If anything lowers it before then, our bet is a court ruling on Section 338, not a vote in Congress.

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