Gemini restarts its Asia–Gulf loop, but stops short of Jebel Ali

Gemini’s Gulf comeback confirms Khor Fakkan, not Jebel Ali, as the front door to the UAE

Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are restarting their Far East–Middle East loop this weekend. It has been suspended since 27 March. The first ship is the 8,400 teu Maersk Athabasca, which leaves Qingdao on 17 October and is due at Khor Fakkan on 16 November. That is a 30-day run. The loop no longer calls at Jebel Ali, Dubai’s main port.

The two carriers run the service together under the Gemini Cooperation, their vessel-sharing alliance. Maersk sells it as FM1 and Hapag-Lloyd sells it as AGX. The Loadstar reported the relaunch on 13 October. Container News published the full port rotation: Qingdao, Ningbo, Tanjung Pelepas, Khor Fakkan, Singapore, then back to Qingdao.

What we think it means

This is not the Gulf reopening. It is the opposite. Two of the world’s biggest carriers have looked at the Strait of Hormuz and decided to build a scheduled mainline service around it. Since March, the Khor Fakkan bypass has worked as a stopgap. With this service it becomes a fixed part of the network.

For forwarders, that changes the planning question. The question is no longer “when does Jebel Ali come back?” It is “how do I price and run a sea-plus-truck product into the UAE and the Upper Gulf for the foreseeable future?” Our answer is to treat the landbridge (the road leg that links a port outside the strait to inland or inner-Gulf destinations) as a standard part of every Gulf quote. It is no longer an exception.

We also think the extra capacity is modest. The loop will not do much to bring rates down in Q4.

The numbers behind the call

Start with the ship. The Maersk Athabasca carries 8,400 teu (twenty-foot equivalent units, the standard container measure). When the loop last ran it used eight vessels averaging 10,900 teu, according to Xeneta data cited by The Loadstar. The opening ship is about a quarter smaller than that average. The carriers have not said how many ships will rotate through the new loop.

Maersk is also keeping its guard up. In a message to customers quoted by The Loadstar, it said: “The FM1 re-launch provides customers with additional direct ocean connectivity to Khor Fakkan”. It added: “Existing booking restrictions and cargo acceptance guidelines remain applicable.” Container News reports that both carriers will keep watching the security situation and that further Gemini changes depend on events in the Middle East. That is not a carrier betting on a quick return to normal.

The rates show how tight the trade is. Container Trades Statistics put its Asia–Middle East price index, which combines contract and spot rates, up 130% year on year in August. Xeneta says spot rates to Khor Fakkan rose 479% between 28 February and early September, reaching $10,626 per 40ft container. Peter Sand, Xeneta’s chief analyst, said the increases mean that “spot rates on these trades surpass previous record highs” that were “set during the Covid disruption”. He also said: “The increased cost is in addition to longer transit times and worse reliability.” His bottom line was that “while the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to container vessels”, shippers “have little other option to get their goods into the Gulf region.”

Jebel Ali shows what that closure has cost. An Alphaliner analysis, reported by Splash247 and relayed by the International Association of Movers on 26 August, found that throughput at Jebel Ali dropped more than 90% year on year in the second quarter, to 374,000 teu. In the first half of 2026 the port handled 3.14 million teu, against 7.77 million teu a year earlier. That analysis says it fell from 10th to 32nd in the global container rankings within six months.

How Khor Fakkan became the front door

Khor Fakkan, run by Gulftainer, is on the UAE’s east coast, on the Gulf of Oman side of the strait. In March, The Loadstar quoted Drewry’s Eirik Hooper saying that “Khor Fakkan is the only port where bypass utility is genuinely high”. He put the road distance from Khor Fakkan to Dubai at 130 km. Salalah, by contrast, is some 1,700 km away. He estimated trucking a 40ft box from Salalah in Oman to Dubai at $3,000–$5,000, against $200–$400 for local drayage (short-haul port trucking) out of Jebel Ali.

The port was not built for this job. “This is a facility that was built as a transhipment terminal, so it didn’t really even have a truck gate,” Hooper noted, as quoted by The Loadstar on 13 October. A transhipment terminal moves boxes from one ship to another, so almost nothing used to leave by road. According to Hooper, Gulftainer has taken weekly throughput “from around 8,000 teu to 65,000 teu, a 700% increase”. It is aiming for “a weekly target of 100,000 teu expected within the next month or two”. Truck movements, he said, have gone “from about 100 truck movements a day to 8,500.”

The rest of the region has scaled up too. The Loadstar reports that in late August DP World said it had moved 500,000 teu through Gulf overland corridors since the beginning of March. It has also bought a further 700 trucks for landbridge work.

Hapag-Lloyd’s own booking guidance shows how the network now works. UAE cargo is transhipped via Fujairah or Khor Fakkan and then trucked to its final destination. Cargo for Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar and Bahrain goes via Fujairah or Khor Fakkan, then by landbridge to Jebel Ali or Sharjah, then onto intra-Gulf feeder ships. Cargo for Dammam or Jubail in Saudi Arabia uses the Jeddah landbridge. Hapag-Lloyd gives a lead time of about five days for bonded transport between Fujairah or Khor Fakkan and Jebel Ali or Sharjah. Bonded means the goods move under customs seal with duty not yet paid. It also warns that feeder rotations do not run on a fixed weekly schedule.

What forwarders should do now

First, quote door-to-door or not at all. With a 30-day proforma (planned schedule) to Khor Fakkan, a five-day bonded truck leg to Jebel Ali and an unscheduled feeder beyond it, the port-to-port rate tells your customer very little. Build the truck leg, the bonded transfer and a realistic buffer into every Gulf quote.

Second, reset expectations on timing. The first ship is due on 16 November. Cargo that has not already shipped on other services will not see this capacity until the second half of November at the earliest. For year-end retail stock heading into the UAE, that is late.

Third, watch the gate, not the berth. Hooper’s figures show the landside at Khor Fakkan growing fast from a very low base. A mainline service adds a weekly surge of import boxes that all need trucks out of the same gate. If Gulftainer reaches its 100,000 teu target, the pressure eases. If it does not, the truck leg becomes the bottleneck and the place where delays and detention costs build up.

Fourth, keep the alternatives warm. Hapag-Lloyd still offers Fujairah, and the Jeddah landbridge still serves eastern Saudi Arabia. Customers in Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar and Bahrain face the longest chain: ship, truck, then feeder. They need the most careful routing advice.

Fifth, read the booking restrictions. Maersk says its existing cargo acceptance guidelines for the Middle East still apply. Check what is accepted before you promise space.

Our prediction

We expect no mainline Asia service to call Jebel Ali directly before the end of Q4 2026. The carriers’ language is cautious, and the network they are building assumes the strait stays shut to container ships.

We also expect spot rates from Asia into Khor Fakkan to stay at least triple their late-February level through year end. Xeneta’s figures put that level at roughly $1,800 per 40ft. One loop, led by an 8,400 teu ship, is not enough to undo a 479% rise.

Finally, we expect at least one more mainline carrier or alliance to announce a direct Asia–Khor Fakkan or Fujairah service within six weeks. Gemini has shown it can be done on a schedule, and nobody wants to leave record rates to a rival. If that happens, the strain on Khor Fakkan’s truck gate is the number forwarders should watch.

Sources

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• The Loadstar — Gemini to relaunch Asia-Middle East Loop, but drops Jebel Ali call, 13 Oct 2026 \
• Container News — Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd relaunch FM1 service, 13 Oct 2026 \
• Hapag-Lloyd — Reopening of Bookings to Upper Gulf Locations, updated 28 Jul 2026 \
• The Loadstar — Jeddah emerges as Gulf supply-chain lifeline as Hormuz closure reroutes container trade, 17 Mar 2026 \
• International Association of Movers — Jebel Ali plunges in global rankings as Hormuz war cuts container volumes, 26 Aug 2026