Tuesday, October 27, 2026
The news that moves freight
Geopolitics Oct 27, 2026 · 7 min read

US weighs strikes or a deal as Gulf attacks continue

Strike or deal, Gulf cargo stays on emergency terms. US forces could launch major operations against Iran within 96 hours of an order, CNN reported on 26 October, citing officials. The same day, Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani envoys met Iran’s president in Tehran with no concrete announcement. Our view: neither outcome brings quick relief for Gulf freight. A tanker was disabled in the Strait of Hormuz on 23 October. Only 101 US-facilitated transits went through over 22–24 October, against about 138 ships a day in 2025. Our prediction: no major carrier restores a regular scheduled container service through Hormuz into the Upper Gulf before 1 December 2026.

Trump’s strike-or-deal choice won’t reopen the Gulf on any timetable a shipper can plan around

US forces are ready to launch major operations against Iran within 96 hours of receiving an order from President Trump. Fox News reported this on Monday 26 October, citing a CNN report based on US officials. An unnamed source quoted by Fox said: “It will be a big effort.” According to that reporting, the strikes would likely go beyond a limited operation such as hitting radar systems and launchers.

On the same day, senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan sat down with Iran’s leaders in Tehran to try to stop that from happening. The meeting ended with no concrete announcement.

Trump has framed the choice himself. In a Fox News interview on Sunday 25 October, he said: “I have a decision to make: Do I finish it off, which would be very easy to do, or do I make a deal? That’s all.” (CBS News).

What we think it means

Our view is simple. Forwarders should stop waiting for Washington to decide. Neither a strike nor a deal will put Gulf freight back on normal terms this year.

A strike would bring more attacks on ships, higher insurance and more surcharges. A deal would help, but slowly. The ships are still queued, the underwriters are still nervous, and attacks are still happening this week. The last ceasefire showed how fragile any relief can be.

The oil market seems to be pricing in the hopeful version. Brent crude fell 0.78% to settle at $115.81 a barrel on Monday, Reuters reported via Fox News, as signs of easing hostilities led traders to unwind positions. Freight does not move on hope. It moves on what happens to ships and on what insurers charge to cover them.

What is happening on the water

The attacks have not paused for the diplomacy.

UKMTO, the UK Royal Navy’s maritime trade office, disclosed on 26 October what it called “a verified, time-late report of a tanker struck by an unknown projectile.” The tanker was hit at 0839 UTC on 23 October while sailing outbound through the Strait of Hormuz. It was disabled. All crew were reported safe. UKMTO did not name the ship. The attack came to light three days after it happened (gCaptain).

Also on 26 October, UKMTO reported a ship on fire about 63 nautical miles southeast of Al-Faw, Iraq, in the northern Gulf. It classed this as suspicious activity, not a confirmed attack. “Crew status, damage assessment, and environmental impact are unknown at time of report,” UKMTO said (Fox News).

The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC), a naval coordination centre that tracks Gulf shipping, rated the threat in the Strait of Hormuz SEVERE in its 25 October advisory. It said “further deliberate attacks were highly likely.” It rated the wider Gulf SUBSTANTIAL. JMIC counts five attacks inside the Gulf since 7 October and 156 confirmed maritime security incidents in the region since 1 March (gCaptain).

Traffic is a fraction of normal. JMIC counted 101 US-facilitated transits over 22–24 October. That is about 34 a day, against a 2025 average of about 138 vessels a day, or roughly a quarter of normal. About 492 vessels were waiting outside the strait as of 25 October (gCaptain).

Iran is also setting its own rules for the water. On 26 October Maj. Gen. Ali Abdollahi, chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces, warned that any vessel that tries to leave the designated route “or disregard Iranian procedures, for any reason, will put itself at risk and face serious damage” (IRNA, via Fox News).

The oil side is tight too. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said: “There have been no loadings at Kharg Island. Production is starting to falter.” (Fox News). Kharg Island is Iran’s main crude export terminal.

Why diplomacy won’t fix it fast

Monday’s Tehran meeting was a first. It was the first high-level engagement between Iran and the three signatories of the August Mecca mutual-defence pact, Fox News reported. Saudi Defence Minister Khalid bin Salman, Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir and Turkish intelligence head Ibrahim Kalin met Iran’s top security officials, CBS News reported. They also met President Masoud Pezeshkian.

Saudi Arabia said the visit aimed to open negotiating channels to “prevent the return of military escalation” (Fox News). Iran’s security chief Mohsen Rezaei called the talks “very good” (CBS News). Nothing concrete came out of them.

Tehran’s public line does not suggest it is in a hurry. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said: “Recently, there has been talk of a new war, but I am already thinking about the post-war period.” Of US strikes, he said: “They have already done so twice and have seen the results.” (CBS News).

History matters here. This conflict began on 28 February 2026. A ceasefire, the June MOU (memorandum of understanding), brought a brief reprieve. War-risk premiums started to fall from their peaks. Then three vessels were attacked in the first week of July and premiums rose again. Neil Roberts of the Lloyd’s Market Association described a “softening” after the MOU, then an “uptick” after the July attacks. By early September the MOU had expired and US strikes on Iranian territory had resumed (Insurance Business, 2 September).

So last time there was a deal, shipping got a few weeks of partial relief, not a reopening. That is our baseline if talks succeed now.

What it costs to move cargo

War-risk insurance is extra cover that shipowners must buy to enter a declared danger zone. It is priced as a percentage of the ship’s value, per transit. Before the conflict, Hormuz transits cost about 0.15% to 0.25% of hull value. After the February strikes, rates jumped to 3% to 10%, according to Marcus Baker, global head of marine at broker Marsh. At 10%, a $150 million tanker pays $15 million for a single transit (Insurance Business, 2 September). In late August, estimates for Hormuz transits were still 3% to 8% (Insurance Business, 26 August).

Cover has never fully disappeared. “There was always and there remains sufficient capacity, with cover available for a price,” Roberts said in August. “That price reflects the risk.” (Insurance Business, 26 August). A new US strike campaign would push that price back toward the top of the range.

Container lines pass those costs on. By mid-September, Maersk was charging Emergency Freight of $1,800 per 20-foot box, $3,000 per 40-foot box and $3,800 for reefer, special and dangerous goods boxes on rerouted Gulf cargo. It added $1,000 if a vessel actually transits the strait. Storage in transit was $25 per TEU (twenty-foot equivalent unit) per day after 14 days. Cargo for Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain and the UAE was being moved via Salalah and Khor Fakkan, then by land and feeder ship to its final port (Tradlinx, 14 September, citing Maersk’s Middle East update of 11 September). Check current figures with the carrier before quoting. Maersk says the emergency rate may change.

What forwarders should do now

First, assume no quick reopening, whatever happens this week. Quote Gulf cargo on diversion routings through Oman and the UAE east coast, not on direct calls into Jebel Ali, Dammam, Kuwait or Umm Qasr.

Second, keep quote validity short and spell out pass-through clauses. If the US strikes, carriers can add or raise emergency and war-risk charges with little notice. Your customer needs to know that before booking, not after.

Third, watch detention and demurrage. When ships are delayed and cargo is moved by truck and feeder, free time runs out fast. Storage charges at transshipment hubs add up per day. Build that into landed-cost estimates for Gulf importers.

Fourth, watch the signals that would really change things. These are a named carrier announcing a scheduled Hormuz call, JMIC lowering its SEVERE rating, and daily transits climbing back toward three figures. A handshake in Tehran is not one of them.

Fifth, expect knock-on effects outside the Gulf. Brent above $115 feeds bunker surcharges on every lane. Air freight to the Gulf will keep picking up urgent cargo that cannot wait for a feeder slot.

Our call

Our prediction: no major carrier restores a regular scheduled container service through Hormuz into the Upper Gulf before 1 December 2026. That holds even if talks restart straight after the 3 November US midterms. A US strike within the next two weeks would push that date further out. A deal would start a slow recovery, not a reopening, because insurers and carriers will want weeks of attack-free transits before they commit ships and schedules.

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