Thursday, October 22, 2026
The news that moves freight
Geopolitics Oct 22, 2026 · 8 min read

Tanker strikes reach Iraqi waters as Gulf oil flows beat prewar levels

A tanker hit off Iraq shows the Gulf risk no longer stops at Hormuz. Two more tankers were hit by projectiles: one 30 nautical miles southeast of Al Faw, Iraq, on 20 October, and one 11 nautical miles west of Bukha, Oman, on 21 October. All crew were safe. Our view: the danger zone is now the whole Gulf, not just Hormuz. The JMIC naval centre has raised the wider Gulf to SUBSTANTIAL. About 383 ships sat at anchor off the UAE on 18 October. Our call: no major carrier restores a regular container service through Hormuz into the Upper Gulf before 1 December 2026.

A tanker hit off Iraq’s Al Faw puts the whole Gulf, not just Hormuz, on the risk map

Two tankers were hit by unknown projectiles in the space of about seven hours. The first was struck about 30 nautical miles southeast of Al Faw, Iraq, at 1830 UTC on 20 October. The second was hit about 11 nautical miles west of Bukha, Oman, at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz, at 0145 UTC on 21 October.

Both reports came from UKMTO, the UK Maritime Trade Operations centre, which collects security reports from merchant ships in the region. Neither tanker has been named. UKMTO did not say who was behind either strike.

The Bukha strike fits the pattern of recent weeks: a hit at the mouth of the strait. The Al Faw strike does not. Al Faw is at the very top of the Gulf, roughly its full length from where most attacks have happened.

What we think it means

Our view is simple. Forwarders should stop treating this as a Hormuz problem and start treating it as a Gulf problem. Any cargo heading to Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar or the Saudi east coast now crosses water that JMIC rates SEVERE or SUBSTANTIAL. That matters for surcharges, for insurance and for how long boxes sit before they reach a berth.

We also think the oil numbers out this week are being misread. Gulf oil flows are now higher than before the war. Some will take that as a sign the Gulf is getting back to normal. We read it the other way. Oil is moving because traders and tanker owners can earn enough to pay for extreme risk. Container lines and their customers cannot earn the same margins, so they will not take the same risks.

What the evidence shows

Start with the two strikes. On the Al Faw tanker, gCaptain reports that all crew were safe, with no damage and no environmental impact. On the Bukha tanker, the strike started a fire, which was put out. The ship is now at anchor. Al Arabiya, carrying the UKMTO report via Reuters, wrote: “It added that all crew were reported safe.”

Next, the threat ratings. The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) is a multinational naval centre that issues threat ratings for merchant shipping. Its 18 October advisory kept the Strait of Hormuz at SEVERE and warned that deliberate attacks remained highly likely, according to gCaptain. gCaptain also reports that “JMIC subsequently raised the threat level for the wider Persian Gulf to SUBSTANTIAL”. JMIC cited spreading attacks and interference with electronic navigation.

JMIC also warned that ships standing still may face a higher risk of being targeted, especially those broadcasting AIS. AIS, the automatic identification system, is the tracking signal that shows a ship’s position to anyone watching. That warning matters because so many ships are standing still. As of 18 October, JMIC counted about 217 vessels at anchor off Fujairah and Khor Fakkan, on the UAE’s east coast. It counted 166 more in the waters from Dubai and Jebel Ali towards Ras Al Khaimah. That is around 383 ships waiting.

Then the pace. UKMTO recorded 12 attacks on merchant ships in the week ending 16 October, gCaptain reports: 10 in the Strait of Hormuz, one in the Gulf and one in the Gulf of Oman. JMIC has confirmed 153 maritime security incidents in the region since 1 March. The past week alone brought two tankers attacked near Al Jubayl in Saudi Arabia on 16 October, one hit by a rocket-propelled grenade fired from a small boat, and a tug hit by two projectiles about 20 nautical miles northeast of Khor Fakkan on 18 October.

Oil is flowing, but at a price

The other big story this week is about volume. The Wall Street Journal, citing the ship-tracking firm Kpler, reported that Middle East oil flows through Hormuz and alternative routes averaged more than 24 million barrels a day in the week to 18 October. The prewar average was 23.3 million, according to IBTimes and UNITED24, which both relay the Journal’s figures.

Hormuz itself carried about 14 million barrels a day, about 82% of its prewar level, counting ship-to-ship transfers off Oman. The rest is going around the strait. In September, about 40% of non-Iranian crude leaving the Gulf avoided Hormuz, against 17% before the war. Saudi and Emirati pipelines have helped redirect supplies, IBTimes reports.

The system is improvised: shuttle tankers move oil through Hormuz for transfer off Oman, some switch off tracking during crossings, and American air cover protects the Omani coast, IBTimes reports.

The cost is the point. Kpler put freight for a VLCC (very large crude carrier, or supertanker) moving Gulf crude to China at about $37.37 a barrel, close to a record. Windward analyst Michelle Wiese Bockmann said war-risk insurance has risen to as much as 10% of a vessel’s value, from under 3% before the war, IBTimes reports. Sailors have been offered bonuses of up to $25,000 for a round trip of one or two weeks, IBTimes says, citing earlier Journal reporting.

The analysts quoted are clear about why the oil keeps moving. “The volumes remain high despite rising attacks, because profits make it worth the risk,” Kpler crude analyst Homayoun Falakshahi said, as reported by UNITED24. JPMorgan commodities strategist Natasha Kaneva put it this way, again as reported by UNITED24: “In April, the problem was a shortage of crude. In October, it is the cost of moving it.”

Hamad Hussain, senior commodities economist at Capital Economics, told the Wall Street Journal, as reported by UNITED24: “The big picture is that the system for shipping through a dangerous Strait of Hormuz is now well-established”. He added that the risk appetite of those exporting oil has risen.

Not everyone sees this as stable. “Iran is trying to reassert its blockade of the strait,” Christopher Long, a former British naval officer with Neptune P2P Group, said, as reported by UNITED24. About 30 attacks on vessels have been reported in October, roughly 20% of all ships attacked during the war, according to figures cited by the Journal. Brent crude was around $108 a barrel.

What happened to container shipping last time

The best guide to what comes next for boxes is what carriers did when the war started. On 1 March 2026, The Maritime Executive reported Maersk’s statement: “We are suspending all vessel crossings in the Strait of Hormuz until further notice.” MSC told ships in or bound for the Gulf to shelter at safe areas and stopped taking cargo bookings for the region. CMA CGM paused Gulf operations.

The surcharges came fast. Hapag-Lloyd brought in a war-risk surcharge of $1,500 per TEU (twenty-foot equivalent unit, a standard 20-foot container) for Gulf cargo from 2 March, and $3,500 per container for reefers and special cargo, The Maritime Executive reported. CMA CGM added an emergency conflict surcharge of $2,000 per 20-foot container, according to a GuruFocus report carried by Yahoo Finance. By 12 March, Maritime Gateway reported, Maersk had stopped new bookings for reefers, dangerous goods and out-of-gauge cargo to and from the UAE, Oman, Iraq, Kuwait, Jordan, Qatar, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia.

In March, carriers priced in a higher threat within days.

What this means for forwarders

First, Iraq. Umm Qasr, Iraq’s main port, sits close to Al Faw. A strike there gives carriers and underwriters a fresh reason to charge more for the last leg into the northern Gulf, or to push more boxes onto trucks from ports further south.

Second, surcharges. A higher JMIC rating for the whole Gulf supports higher war-risk charges on feeder ships, the smaller vessels that shuttle boxes from hub ports to their final destination. Expect them on services into Jebel Ali, Dammam, Kuwait and Umm Qasr, not just on crossings of the strait. Ask carriers now which ports their war-risk charge covers and from what date. Put those terms into quotes before you accept bookings.

Third, waiting time. Around 383 ships at anchor off the UAE means queues, and JMIC says standing still adds risk. Build extra days into delivery promises and check demurrage terms (charges when containers stay too long at the port) before cargo lands.

Fourth, the oil story is not a container story. Pipelines and shuttle tankers do not carry boxes, and weekly container services have no equivalent payoff. Plan on land-bridge routes and transhipment through ports outside the strait.

Fifth, fuel. With Brent near $108, we expect bunker costs (ship fuel) to stay high. Expect that to show up in bunker surcharges on all lanes, not only Gulf ones.

Our prediction

We expect UKMTO’s weekly count to stay at 10 or more attacks in and around the strait in each week up to the 3 November US midterm vote. We expect Brent to stay above $100 a barrel through mid-November. We do not expect any major carrier to restore a regular scheduled container service through Hormuz into the Upper Gulf before 1 December 2026, even if talks restart straight after the midterms.

This week’s strikes strengthen that call. If attacks keep reaching as far as Al Faw, we also expect at least one major carrier to widen or raise its Gulf war-risk surcharge to cover northern Gulf ports by the end of November. Until then, quote Gulf deliveries on land-bridge timings and budget for surcharges.

Sources