Monday, November 2, 2026
The news that moves freight
Geopolitics Nov 2, 2026 · 7 min read

Saudi-led strikes reach Ras Isa, a working Red Sea oil terminal

The coalition is now bombing the Red Sea coast, and ships are in the way

On Sunday 1 November the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen announced a “precision military operation” to “neutralize vital resources” behind Houthi ballistic missile and drone attacks. The statement, from coalition spokesman Maj Gen Turki Al-Maliki via the Saudi Press Agency, named no locations.

The Houthis named one. Their al-Masirah TV said airstrikes hit Ras Isa, an oil terminal on the Red Sea coast in Hodeidah province. It said the strikes hit a port berth and a commercial vessel docked there. It gave no casualty or damage details (Xinhua). The coalition has not confirmed it.

Our view: this matters more than the headline count of strikes. For weeks the coalition’s air campaign has gone after launchers, tunnels and depots. Now, by the Houthis’ account and some regional reports, it is going after the coast: piers, boats and the ports that feed them. A merchant ship tied up at a berth is the kind of target that turns a land war into a shipping problem. It also gives the Houthis a fresh reason to hit back at sea, and they have a long record of doing exactly that.

What each side says happened

Al-Maliki warned that the Houthis would “bear the consequences” of continued attacks, and said the coalition would keep taking “necessary military measures to deter Houthi attacks”. That is according to the SPA statement as carried by Siasat Daily and relayed by House of Saud.

The coalition did not publish targets, a damage assessment or casualty figures, House of Saud reported. Other outlets filled the gap in different ways. Asharq Al-Awsat described the operation as hitting “maritime support assets” that threatened shipping in the southern Red Sea. Gulf News said strikes hit Hodeidah and Dhamar provinces. Both are relayed by House of Saud. These are reports, not official target lists.

The Houthi side made larger claims. Military spokesman Yahya Sarea said 75 air and missile strikes hit eight provinces in 24 hours, taking the total since the latest escalation to 3,830. Xinhua noted these numbers could not be independently verified. Al-Masirah also reported a strike on a telecoms facility near Saada. Separately, it claimed a strike on an oil company station in Bajil district that wounded three civilians, and one on Hodeidah University’s medical faculty. That was reported by Shafaq News via House of Saud, and is unconfirmed.

The coalition, for its part, said it intercepted and destroyed a drone and a ballistic missile fired at southern Saudi Arabia (Xinhua). A Houthi military source threatened Saudi Aramco facilities and urged airlines to avoid Saudi airspace (Shafaq News, via House of Saud). That is a threat, not an action, but it adds risk to air freight into the kingdom.

Ras Isa has been hit before, and it was deadly

Ras Isa is not a new name in this war. On 17 April 2025, US airstrikes hit the port. US Central Command said the strike was meant “to degrade the economic source of power of the Houthis” and that it “was not intended to harm the people of Yemen” (Airwars). Its social media post said US forces acted “to eliminate this source of fuel for the Iran-backed Houthi terrorists” (ANI via Free Press Journal).

The cost was heavy. A Houthi health ministry spokesman said at least 74 people were killed and 171 wounded (ANI via Free Press Journal). Monitoring group Airwars later named 84 civilians reported killed. It says the US military, in an annual report to Congress in August 2026, conceded 80 civilians killed and 171 injured. Most of the dead were port workers, according to Airwars and Mwatana for Human Rights.

The lesson for shipping is simple. A fuel terminal in a war zone is a target, and so is anything parked next to it. If Sunday’s claims hold up, the port is back in the firing line with a working ship alongside.

The coast is now the front line

This strike does not stand alone. The current phase began on 4–5 October. The coalition said 100 fighter jets took part, and it claimed 324 “high-value” Houthi targets destroyed (The National). On the ground, Yemeni government forces, backed by Saudi air power, claimed Mocha, Dhubab and positions around Bab el-Mandeb, the narrow strait at the southern end of the Red Sea (The National; Al Jazeera). The Houthis called those reports “fabricated heroics”, and Al Jazeera had not independently verified the full extent of the gains. Neither outlet reported Saudi ground troops in the fight.

In early October the coalition said its naval forces had struck Houthi sites in Hodeidah storing explosive-laden boats and naval mines (Al Jazeera). It said that thwarted a planned attack on southern Red Sea waterways. That is the coalition’s claim. But it shows where both sides think the war will be decided: on the coast.

The human cost is climbing fast. The International Organization for Migration put displacement at more than 184,000 on 5 October (Al Jazeera). The UN said on 1 November that more than 300,000 people had been displaced in western Yemen (Anadolu, via House of Saud). The two figures come from different agencies, but the direction is clear.

What it costs to sail there

Insurance tells the story better than any statement. War-risk cover is the extra policy a shipowner buys to enter a listed conflict zone, priced as a share of the ship’s value. On 29 July, London’s Joint War Committee, the group of insurers that sets those zones, moved its Red Sea line north, to close to the Saudi port of Jizan. Industry sources told Reuters that cover for Jeddah and Yanbu rose within 24 hours to 1% of ship value, from 0.25% earlier that week. For the southern Red Sea, it rose to 1–2%, from 0.3% (Reuters via Baird Maritime). The trigger was the Houthis’ declared “maritime embargo” on Saudi Arabia on 20 July.

By October, brokers told the Financial Times that premiums for ships in the area had reached 6–10% of hull value (via House of Saud). On a vessel worth $100 million, that is $6 million to $10 million for a single exposure. Carriers do not absorb costs like that. They pass them on as surcharges, or they stop calling.

There is also less room to dodge. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards declared the Strait of Hormuz closed on 26 October (via House of Saud). That squeezes Gulf ports inside the strait, Dammam and Jebel Ali among them. Our view: Saudi Arabia now leans harder on its Red Sea coast, just as that coast becomes a war zone.

What forwarders should do now

First, re-quote Saudi business with room to move. Any Jeddah or Yanbu booking should carry a clear clause for war-risk and emergency surcharges. Expect carriers to add them at short notice.

Second, line up a fallback. If a carrier drops Jeddah, cargo will need another route in. With Hormuz closed, that likely means ports outside the strait, such as Salalah or Sohar in Oman, followed by a long truck leg. Check trucking capacity and border paperwork now, not after an advisory lands.

Third, warn shippers about transit times. Services that pass Bab el-Mandeb are sailing past a coast under attack. A single Houthi strike on a merchant ship could send carriers back around the Cape of Good Hope, with every week of extra sailing that brings.

Fourth, watch the air side. The Houthi warning to airlines adds risk to air freight into Saudi Arabia. Exporters with urgent Saudi freight should book early and expect rates via neighbouring hubs to stay firm.

Our call

At sea: if Saudi Arabia launches a ground offensive against the Houthis, we expect at least one major container carrier to pause or drop a Jeddah call by early December. Sunday’s strikes on Houthi coastal and maritime targets, and the reported damage to a ship at Ras Isa, make a Houthi strike on Saudi-linked shipping more likely, and that is the path that ends in a cancelled call.

In the air: we expect King Khalid International in Riyadh to stay on restricted, prior-permission operations until at least mid-November, with no European belly capacity (cargo carried in the hold of passenger planes) back. Over the same period, we expect Saudi-bound air rates via Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Dammam to rise as freight squeezes through fewer gateways.

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