Geopolitics Oct 13, 2026 · 7 min read

Saudi-Houthi war reaches the Red Sea’s last open door

Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea backdoor is now inside the war zone. The Saudi-led coalition hit sites in Sanaa, Hodeidah and Dhamar on Tuesday, after a Houthi missile strike on Riyadh airport on Saturday killed 13 people, Reuters reports. Our view: the Red Sea route that replaced Hormuz is no longer a safe fallback. Hormuz has been shut since February. Saudi Arabia has been sending more than 70% of its crude exports to Yanbu, The National reported in July. The Houthis say targets could include Aramco and a Riyadh refinery. Expect higher costs and slower air freight. Our call: Jeddah and Yanbu war-risk insurance quotes rise above July’s 0.1% within six weeks.

Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea lifeline is now a target, and freight will pay for it
On Tuesday 13 October, the Saudi-led coalition bombed targets in Yemen’s capital, Sanaa. Houthi-run media said the strikes hit the Yemen Petroleum Company’s Sabah central station, a fuel depot on the city’s edge. The coalition said it hit that station and other sites in Sanaa, Hodeidah and Dhamar. It says these places “supply its arsenal of missiles and drones,” Reuters reported. The depot’s operator said it held no fuel stocks.
The strikes follow the worst weekend Saudi Arabia has seen in years. A Houthi ballistic missile strike on Riyadh airport on Saturday 10 October killed 13 people, according to Reuters. It called the attack “the deadliest in Saudi Arabia for a decade.” Bloomberg’s count is 12 dead and 309 wounded on Saturday, plus one more killed and 11 hurt in a second attack on Sunday.
Our view is simple. This war has moved from Yemen’s hills to the Red Sea’s front door. And the Red Sea is the main sea route the Gulf has left.

Why this matters more than past Houthi flare-ups

In 2023 and 2024, Houthi attacks on ships pushed most big container lines to sail around Africa. That was painful, but the Gulf still had another door. Ships could reach Jebel Ali, Dammam and the rest of the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz.
That door has been shut since February. Reuters reports that Iran closed Hormuz when its war began, and that Bab el-Mandeb has become a more vital route since. Bab el-Mandeb is the narrow strait at the southern end of the Red Sea, between Yemen and the Horn of Africa.
Saudi Arabia leaned hard on its western coast. The National reported in July that the kingdom had sent more than 70% of its crude exports to Yanbu, its Red Sea oil port, since the Hormuz blockade. The same report said Bab el-Mandeb carries about 12% of world trade and a quarter of global container traffic.
It is not just oil. Lars Jensen, chief executive of consultancy Vespucci Maritime, told EnterpriseAM in July that Hormuz’s closure was diverting a good share of Saudi cargo out of the Gulf and into the Red Sea. “It’s a particular problem for Saudi Arabia,” he said.
So when fighting reaches Bab el-Mandeb, and Houthi missiles reach Riyadh, the fallback is under attack too.

What has happened on the ground

The Houthis pushed down the Red Sea coast towards Bab el-Mandeb last month, Reuters reports. That is what pulled Saudi Arabia back into the war. Saudi jets are now backing a Yemeni government counter-offensive. The coalition says it has retaken Mokha, a Red Sea port near the strait, Bloomberg reports.
The ships near Mokha already know the risk. On 11 August the cargo ship Tihamah was hit by a projectile off Al Mokha and several seafarers died, S&P Global reported, citing the International Maritime Organization.
Since the weekend, the Houthis have widened their target list. Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree said targets could include Saudi Aramco’s headquarters in Dhahran and a refinery in Riyadh, Reuters says. The Houthis had earlier threatened a “harsh and painful” response to any strikes on Sanaa.
The kingdom is looking for help. France will send defensive military equipment to Yanbu, Bloomberg reports. Britain has supplied a refuelling aircraft. Turkey has signalled it is willing to help defend the kingdom but ruled out offensive action. Iran’s foreign minister says Tehran has offered to mediate, Reuters reports.
Washington has not decided. Asked whether the US would join strikes, President Trump said: “We may. We’re going to look at it.” An American was among Saturday’s dead, Bloomberg reports.

What the analysts say

Few people expect a quick end. “It is very unlikely that the Saudis can stop the attacks if the US could not,” Stacie Pettyjohn of the Center for a New American Security told Bloomberg. “They appear to have enough cheap drones and missiles, as well as the know-how, to conduct long-range strikes” against Saudi civilian infrastructure, she said.
She added: “Suppression requires constant air patrols searching for launchers, which is difficult.” And: “the Yemenis seem to have used the time since the ceasefire with the US to rearm.”
Ahmed Nagi of the International Crisis Group sees pressure on both sides. “The Houthis are feeling the impact of the Saudi airstrikes carried out over the past few days in areas under their control,” he said. “By escalating their attacks, they are trying to pressure Saudi Arabia into stepping back and halting its air campaign.”
Nadwa Al-Dawsari of the Middle East Institute was blunter: “They only back down when faced with a credible threat, and so far, they haven’t faced one.”
Markets are not panicking yet. Brent crude slipped below $104 a barrel, Bloomberg reported. But the Saudi government says the economy will probably contract 3.6% this year, Bloomberg reported.

What happened last time: insurers move first

We have a recent guide to how this plays out at sea. On 20 July the Houthis declared a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia and said they hit two Saudi tankers.
Insurance reacted within days. War-risk premiums are extra insurance a shipowner buys for a voyage through a danger zone, priced as a share of the ship’s value. Reuters reported that southern Red Sea premiums went from about 0.3% the week before the announcement to more than 1%. Some Saudi-linked ships and voyages from Jizan were quoted up to 3%. Jeddah and Yanbu, further north, stayed around 0.1%.
Oil flows fell fast too. Saudi crude loadings from Red Sea terminals dropped 36% in two weeks, The National reported, citing Kpler data.
After the Tihamah attack in August, five P&I clubs said they would end fixed-premium war-risk cover for the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and parts of the Indian Ocean, S&P Global reported. P&I clubs are the mutual insurers most shipowners use. Their reinsurers had cancelled the cover.
That 0.1% for Jeddah and Yanbu rested on one idea: the fighting was far to the south. A war that now reaches Riyadh, threatens Aramco and brings French defensive military equipment to Yanbu weakens that idea.

What it means for forwarders

Here is our read for anyone moving cargo to or from Saudi Arabia and the wider Gulf.
Ocean costs go up first. Higher war-risk premiums get passed on as surcharges. Expect carriers to add or raise emergency and war-risk surcharges on Jeddah, King Abdullah Port and Yanbu bookings. Get them in writing before you quote.
Regional carriers are the weak link. Jensen said most global lines already go around Africa, though CMA CGM has kept some Red Sea services running. A layer of smaller regional lines carries much of the Asia-to-Red Sea cargo. “A complete closure would severely impact that cargo,” he said. If those lines also divert around Africa, space disappears. “Mostly cost,” Jensen said of the impact. “Additional diversions around Africa would soak up more capacity, and there’s no excess capacity in the system right now to absorb that.”
Air freight into Riyadh is unreliable. Riyadh’s airport has been hit repeatedly. Hundreds of flights have been grounded, Bloomberg reports. Etihad and flydubai delayed or cancelled Riyadh flights on 8 October, Khaleej Times reported. The FAA told US airlines to be careful flying to or over parts of Saudi Arabia “at all altitudes.” The UK and Australia have issued travel warnings. Much air cargo flies in passenger-plane bellies. Fewer flights means less space. Consider routing via Jeddah or Dammam, or trucking from neighbouring hubs, and build in buffer time.
Inland routes carry new risk. Cargo landed at Red Sea ports and trucked to Riyadh and the east now crosses a country under missile attack. Check what your cargo and transit insurance covers. Many policies exclude war.
Watch the signals. Three things will tell you which way this goes. First, whether the US joins strikes. Second, whether Houthi missiles hit energy sites, as threatened. Third, whether Iran’s offer to mediate gets anywhere.

Our prediction

We think this escalation lasts weeks, not days. The analysts above give little reason to expect the Houthis to stop soon, and Saudi Arabia has just resumed its air campaign.
Our call: within six weeks, by late November, war-risk quotes for ships calling at Jeddah and Yanbu will rise well above July’s 0.1%. At least one major container line will add or raise a war-risk or emergency surcharge on Saudi Red Sea cargo in the same window. Air capacity into Riyadh will stay below normal through the end of October. If a Houthi missile hits an Aramco site, expect all of this faster and harder.

Sources