Thursday, November 5, 2026
The news that moves freight
Geopolitics Nov 5, 2026 · 8 min read

Hormuz after the vote

Tracker Red Sea and Hormuz: are ships going through? · 36 ships/day

Crude fell 9% on the vote. The missiles didn’t stop, and Gulf surcharges won’t either

Brent crude fell $9.27 a barrel, or 8.9%, to $94.29 by midday New York time on Wednesday 4 November, Reuters reported. It was the lowest price since 4 September. US crude (WTI) fell 7.8% to $88.54. The trigger was the US midterm result: Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate on 3 November, and ABC News projects they gained seven Senate seats.

Our view is simple. The oil market has priced in a lower chance of a wider war. The cost of moving a box into the Gulf is not set by the oil market. It is set by what happens to ships, and in the 24 hours after the vote, ships kept getting hit. Forwarders should keep two numbers apart this month: fuel costs, which should ease, and Gulf risk costs, which we do not expect to ease.

What the vote changed in Washington

The result has opened a public split at the top of the US government. On 4 November, Vice President JD Vance posted on X: “The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.” According to gCaptain, Vance also said Washington will not go back to negotiations until Iran stops attacking commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

Axios, quoted by Fox News, reported that Vance leads a group in Trump’s inner circle “urging the president to strike a deal with Iran to end the conflict.”

President Trump agreed the war cost votes but did not back down. Asked about Vance’s comments, he said: “I think it’s largely true because it drove the gasoline up a little bit short term,” Fox News reported. He also said: “If I had it to do again, I’d have to do it again because long term, it’s the only answer,” ABC News reported. He told The Wall Street Journal: “I did the right thing. I would have done it again,” gCaptain reported.

Reuters reported on 5 November that two sources believe Trump is still likely to order new strikes. One source said: “He is planning to bomb Iran. Don’t listen to what he’s saying. He held off because of the midterms.” On 3 November, Trump told the Financial Times the US had no immediate plans to strike Iran.

Tehran read the result as a win. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei posted: “The process of the US’s collapse has accelerated.” Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf wrote: “Conscience or the cost of living, Americans said NO TO WAR, and we endorse this message.”

The new Congress does not sit until January. Until then the president keeps full command and a veto. Nothing in the result changes the rules for a ship entering the Gulf this week.

The attacks did not pause

Late on 3 November, as votes were being counted, UKMTO received details of an attack on a tanker off Oman. UKMTO is the UK Royal Navy’s centre for logging attacks on merchant ships. The Maritime Executive identified the ship as the Barbados-registered tanker Grit, 298,555 dwt (deadweight tonnes, a measure of cargo capacity). It was built in 2003 and appears to have been under Chinese ownership since June 2026. Its AIS (the tracking signal ships broadcast) had been off for more than a month, and Iran had put it on its “non-compliant” list.

On 4 November, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) claimed that four unidentified tankers had hit mines in the southern channel near Oman, and that it turned back two more. UKMTO said it had details of only one attack, and The Maritime Executive notes that no independent check has emerged for most of the claims.

Then, at 23:20 UTC on 4 November, UKMTO reported a tanker struck by two unidentified projectiles about 50 nautical miles north of Madinat ash Shamal, Qatar. Crew status was unconfirmed. That location matters. It is deep inside the Gulf, on the approaches to Qatar, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia’s east coast. The risk is not confined to the narrow strait.

UKMTO figures reported by Reuters show at least five incidents since Sunday 1 November. In October, UKMTO said 35 vessels were hit, the most in any month of the war.

Carl Larry, who leads the trading and North America risk team at the analytics firm Enverus, put the market’s mistake plainly to Reuters: “The elections are giving bears a reason to cast doubt on a continuation in Iran.” He added: “I’m more concerned that we can see an escalation in Iran sooner than a resolution.”

Iran’s new transit rules

There is a second new fact for anyone routing cargo. On 3 November, Ahmad Hayat-Moghaddam, vice-chair of the Iranian parliament’s national security committee, said: “We have currently exempted India, China, Iraq, and Qatar from transit restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz.” He added: “Ships from these countries pass freely, and the Americans do not intercept them either.” And: “We are conducting business, and each of these exemptions has a distinct reason.”

According to The Week, Indian and Chinese ships must pay a transit fee. Qatari ships pass free. The Week gave no fee amount.

Our view: this is a trap for anyone with a US connection. A rule that lets a ship through based on its flag or owner’s nationality, in exchange for a payment to Iran, is a sanctions question before it is a routing option. Paying an Iranian transit fee, even indirectly through freight on a vessel that paid it, could expose a US company, a US bank or a US-linked forwarder. The Grit case also shows that a Chinese-owned ship is no guarantee of safe passage. Forwarders should ask carriers in writing whether any fee has been paid for a given sailing before booking cargo on it.

What it means on the ground

The oil drop will help in one place. Bunker fuel tracks crude with a lag, and BAF (bunker adjustment factor, the fuel surcharge carriers add to freight) is usually reset monthly or quarterly. If Brent holds near $95 rather than above $100, we expect shippers to see some relief in BAF on most lanes in December and January.

The Gulf is a different calculation. War-risk insurance, the extra cover a ship needs to enter a war zone, is priced on attacks and claims. Insurance Business reported in late August that hull war-risk rates for Hormuz transits were estimated at 3% to 8% of a ship’s value, against about 0.25% before the war. Neil Roberts of the Lloyd’s Market Association told the same publication that cover is available “for a price,” adding: “That price reflects the risk.” At least five incidents in four days, one of them north of Qatar, is not the kind of data that makes underwriters cut rates.

Carriers pass that cost on as war-risk or emergency surcharges. Hapag-Lloyd, for example, set a war-risk surcharge of $1,500 per TEU (twenty-foot equivalent unit, the standard box) and $3,500 per reefer or special container on Gulf cargo from 2 March, “until further notice.” Expect charges like these to stay on invoices for Jebel Ali, Dammam, Hamad, Shuwaikh and Umm Qasr for as long as the attacks continue.

Port delays are the other cost. Kuehne+Nagel reported on 3 November that container ships at Fujairah waited an average of 8.86 days over the past week, and at Khor Fakkan about 7.25 days. Moving a box from those east-coast ports on to Jebel Ali, Sharjah or Abu Dhabi now takes about 12–15 days, against about 5 days before. Fujairah still restricts foreign cargo, dangerous goods and special equipment. K+N points shippers to Salalah and Duqm in Oman as alternatives where they suit.

The bigger energy flows tell the same story. Vortexa data cited by Reuters show Gulf crude, condensate and product exports averaged 17.1 million barrels a day in October, down from 18.9 million in September and about three-quarters of pre-war levels. Bloomberg reports the UAE is weighing a third export pipeline that bypasses Hormuz. Governments do not plan new pipelines when they expect the strait to be normal soon.

What forwarders should do now

First, split the conversation with customers. Tell them fuel surcharges may ease into the new year, but Gulf war-risk and emergency surcharges will not follow crude down.

Second, quote Gulf delivery times with the K+N figures built in. A box landed at Khor Fakkan or Fujairah for Jebel Ali needs two weeks or more for the final leg.

Third, treat any “exempt” sailing with care. Check the vessel’s flag, owner and whether a transit fee was paid. If your business has a US link, run it past compliance first.

Fourth, watch Washington, not the oil screen. The split between Vance and Trump is the real signal. If Trump orders new strikes, as Reuters’ sources expect, attacks on shipping are likely to rise, not fall.

Our call

Our prediction: no major carrier restores a regular scheduled container service through Hormuz into the Upper Gulf before 1 December 2026. The vote makes a deal more likely over months, not weeks, and the attacks since 3 November make our call firmer. We also expect Gulf war-risk and emergency surcharges from the big carriers to stay in place through December, even if Brent stays below $100.

Sources

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