Monday, October 26, 2026
The news that moves freight
Air Oct 26, 2026 · 7 min read

Riyadh reopens under fire

Riyadh says flights are back. The Houthis say the airport is a target. Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport said flights would resume on Sunday 25 October after a two-week closure. The same day, the Saudi-led coalition said it shot down a ballistic missile aimed at Riyadh and 10 missiles fired at southern Saudi Arabia (Daily Sabah/AFP). The Houthi military spokesman told airlines the airport “serves as a military target.” Our view: an open runway is not open capacity. Lufthansa and Air France have cancelled flights through mid-November (AP). Our call: no European belly capacity (cargo in passenger jets’ holds) returns to Riyadh before mid-November, and Saudi-bound air rates via Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Dammam rise until then.

Riyadh is open for flights, and the Houthis have told every airline to stay away

Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport said flights would resume on Sunday 25 October, after a two-week closure. The Houthis marked the day with more fire. The Saudi-led coalition said its air defences destroyed a ballistic missile aimed at Riyadh and two drones over the capital. It said it also intercepted 10 Houthi missiles fired at southern Saudi Arabia and a cruise missile over Khamis Mushait. An AFP journalist heard three explosions in the early hours, Daily Sabah reported.

Our view is simple. A runway that is open is not the same as cargo capacity that is back. Riyadh is the main air gateway into Saudi Arabia’s capital region. For the next few weeks it will be open mostly to Saudi airlines flying under tight rules. The foreign passenger jets that carry much of the cargo in their holds are not coming back yet. Forwarders should plan as if Riyadh is still mostly closed to them.

What happened on Sunday

The airport said flights would resume on Sunday “after a two-week closure following the Houthi strikes,” according to Daily Sabah, which used AFP reporting. The same report added: “However, it remained unclear to what extent the airport was operational.”

The coalition posted on X: “Air defenses intercepted and destroyed a ballistic missile launched by the terrorist Houthi militia toward Riyadh.” Residents got phone alerts warning of a “hostile aerial threat” and telling them to stay in a safe place, Daily Sabah/AFP reported.

The Houthis say they targeted three Saudi airports, energy sites, a pipeline and an air base within 24 hours, Daily Sabah/AFP reported. That is their claim. Pakistani outlet Daily Pakistan, relaying the group’s statements, listed the 24 October targets as Aramco’s Yanbu facilities, the Rabigh refinery, the East-West oil pipeline and four airports, Riyadh among them. The same outlet said Saudi authorities intercepted two ballistic missiles heading for Yanbu and Taif. It said Saudi authorities reported no verified damage at the sites the Houthis named. It also said Civil Defence issued alerts for Mecca, Jeddah, Taif and Yanbu.

The threat to airlines is in writing

Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree addressed airlines directly. He warned them against using the Riyadh airport, “as it is unsafe and serves as a military target for our forces,” Daily Sabah/AFP reported. He went on: “The Saudi regime shall bear the consequences of any operations at the airport.”

Treat that as a statement of intent, not proof of what they can do. But the record this month says airline safety teams cannot dismiss it. AFP reports that the Houthis “have carried out waves of strikes on the airport, including an attack this month that killed 13 people” and wounded more than 300. AFP called it the deadliest attack in the kingdom in more than a decade.

The warning is also not new. In early October, the Houthis told airlines that any aircraft in Saudi airspace, except over Mecca and Medina, “is a target,” Al Jazeera reported, using AFP and Reuters copy. Saudi Arabia’s aviation authority said an attack on 8 October killed an airline pilot and two other Saudi citizens.

How Riyadh got here

The closures have come in steps. Each one shrank capacity further.

On 8 October, the day of the strike that killed the pilot, 293 of the 747 flights scheduled at Riyadh were cancelled or did not operate, according to Cirium data reported by Khaleej Times. That is almost four in ten. National carrier Saudia cancelled or did not operate 97 of its 140 scheduled departures. Turkish Airlines cancelled all four departures and all four arrivals. Qatar Airways cancelled three of its eight departures.

The airport then shut on 10 October, AP reported. On 19 October, the authorities told airlines they could resume flights “with prior permission.” That means each flight needs advance clearance and nothing runs on a normal schedule. On 21 October, a few Saudi airlines flew in and out. Saudia and flynas were operating, according to FlightAware data cited by AP. AP described it as open “for domestic flights.”

Foreign airlines took a different view. “Major carriers, including Lufthansa and Air France, have canceled flights through mid-November,” AP reported on 21 October. Nothing in Sunday’s news suggests they have changed that plan. A fresh missile at the capital and a direct threat against any airline that lands there make an early return less likely.

The wider war explains why this is not a short episode. Daily Sabah/AFP says the fighting followed the collapse of a years-long truce between the Houthis and Yemen’s Saudi-backed government. Last month the Houthis also took control of Yemen’s Red Sea coast in a fast offensive.

What it means for air cargo

Much of the air cargo into Riyadh normally travels as belly capacity: freight carried in the hold under the passengers. When European and other foreign passenger airlines stop flying to a city, that space goes with them. Saudi carriers flying a reduced, permission-only schedule cannot replace it all.

So freight goes the long way round. For many forwarders that means flying into Dubai or Abu Dhabi and trucking across the border, or flying into Dammam on the Gulf coast. Each detour adds time, cost and handling. When the same cargo is forced onto fewer flights through fewer airports, prices go up. That is our reading of the squeeze, not a published index figure.

Dammam is not risk-free. AP reported that an attack on Dammam’s King Fahd International Airport late on 21 October killed one Saudi resident, injured eight people and caused some material damage. Saudi authorities did not say who was behind it. Daily Pakistan also reported attacks on Dammam’s airport and the Shaybah oilfield that it said killed four people. That figure comes from a report that relies partly on social media, so treat it with care.

What forwarders can do now: - Quote Riyadh air shipments on a routing via Dubai, Abu Dhabi or Dammam, with a truck leg. Do not quote a direct Riyadh routing on a foreign carrier before mid-November. - Build in buffer days for border trucking. More freight on the road into Saudi Arabia means queues. - Check your cargo insurance. War-risk cover (insurance that pays out for damage caused by acts of war) may exclude Saudi airports that the Houthis have named as targets. - Warn customers with time-critical goods, such as pharmaceuticals and spare parts, that transit times into Riyadh will stay longer than normal.

The sea side

The ocean picture is calmer for now, but it is tied to the same war. A FreightWaves report from 14 October, republished by Cello Square, said “the immediate effect is uncertainty rather than a confirmed capacity shock” for container lines. It said “no broad closure of the waterway has been confirmed” in the Red Sea. It also flagged the risk ahead: “A sustained Houthi campaign against Saudi targets, or renewed attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea” could tighten capacity. At the time, it said both major Asia-Europe trades were above $3,000 per FEU (a forty-foot container) the week before.

That campaign against Saudi targets is now under way. Civil Defence has issued alerts for Yanbu and Jeddah, Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea gateways, Daily Pakistan reported. In our view, the trigger for carriers is a Saudi ground offensive against the Houthis. If that happens, we expect at least one major container carrier to pause or drop a Jeddah call by early December.

Our call

In the air, our forecast is this. King Khalid International in Riyadh stays on restricted, prior-permission operations, with no European belly capacity back, until at least mid-November. Sunday’s missile and the written threat against airlines make that more likely, not less. Over the four weeks to mid-November, we expect Saudi-bound air rates via Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Dammam to rise as freight squeezes through fewer gateways.

At sea: if Saudi Arabia launches a ground offensive against the Houthis, we expect at least one major container carrier to pause or drop a Jeddah call by early December.

The signal to watch is simple. If Lufthansa or Air France bring forward their return to Riyadh, we are wrong and capacity is coming back faster. If they push it past mid-November, the detours become the normal route into Saudi Arabia for the rest of the year.

Sources