Tuesday, November 10, 2026
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Trucking & Rail Nov 10, 2026 · 8 min read

US truck orders slump as EPA 2027 rules stay unsettled

Truck makers can’t quote 2027, so fleets are buying trailers and running old tractors

US fleets ordered about 15,600 Class 8 trucks in October, according to preliminary figures from FTR reported by Truckinginfo on 9 November. That is down 36% on October 2025 and down 24% on September. It is also close to half FTR’s 10-year October average of 31,089 units. ACT Research, the other big US truck data house, put October lower still, at about 13,500 orders, down 45% year on year.

Class 8 is the heaviest US weight class. In practice it means the tractors that pull 53-foot dry vans, reefers and flatbeds on the interstate. “Net orders” means new orders minus cancellations. October is normally when fleets place orders for the coming year, so a weak October usually matters.

This one is weak for an unusual reason. In our view the drop says almost nothing about freight demand and a great deal about regulation. Fleets are not ordering because nobody can tell them what a 2027 truck will cost. Meanwhile the freight those trucks would carry is picking up. For anyone buying US trucking in 2027, that mismatch is the story.

Why nobody can price a 2027 truck

From 1 January 2027, new US heavy-duty diesel engines must meet a much tighter limit on NOx, the nitrogen oxide gases in diesel exhaust. FleetOwner reports the limit drops to 0.035 grams per horsepower-hour, from 200 milligrams (0.2 grams) today, a cut of more than four-fifths.

In July 2026 EPA proposed changes meant to soften the cost, while keeping the 1 January start date, FleetOwner reports. Truckinginfo reported on 10 July that the proposal keeps the 0.035 limit. It pushes longer “useful life” requirements back to 2030. It keeps the current five-year, 100,000-mile emissions warranty. It replaces forced speed cuts linked to diesel exhaust fluid with dashboard warnings. And it would let engine makers sell engines that miss the limit, for a while, if they pay a nonconformance penalty, a per-engine fee. EPA estimated the changes could save up to $6,000 per engine.

The catch is that it is still a proposal. FleetOwner, writing on 30 September, reported Daimler Truck North America officials’ point that the amendments have no legal effect until EPA publishes a final rule. It gave no expected date for one. The engine makers’ trade group told Truckinginfo in July that “it is critical that the rule be finalized by the end of the year”. Seven weeks before the deadline, fleets still have no final text.

The cost numbers make the problem plain. FTR estimates nonconformance penalties at $6,000 to $7,000 per engine if makers pass them on. It puts the premium for a fully compliant engine at $8,000 to $12,000. FleetOwner cites industry estimates of $10,000 to $15,000 more per vehicle for a compliant engine. FleetOwner also reports that no manufacturer has announced final 2027 engine pricing. There is legal risk on top. FleetOwner notes that a federal court threw out nonconformance penalties in 2012.

Truckinginfo, citing FTR, also reports that some truck makers may be holding back 2027 production slots, and final prices, until the rules are clear. A fleet manager cannot sign a purchase order for a truck with no price and no build date.

The order slump is a pause, not a collapse

The people who count these orders read October the same way. Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research, said “the lack of clarity around EPA 2027 rules and associated costs has left OEMs and fleets unable to plan for next year”. OEMs are the truck makers. Dan Moyer of FTR said “Weak October results suggest that some purchases may be deferred rather than canceled”.

The wider numbers back that up. FTR says September and October combined were down 20% on a year earlier, a smaller fall than October alone. Year to date, FTR counts 278,201 Class 8 orders, up 74% on the same period of 2025. That is a big year by any measure. Much of the buying that was going to happen ahead of 2027 has probably already happened. FleetOwner reported in September that most 2026 Class 8 build slots across North America were already spoken for.

Smaller trucks are doing fine. ACT puts preliminary October orders for Class 5 to 7 trucks, the box trucks and medium-duty units used in local delivery, at about 18,000, up 14% on a year earlier.

And fleets are still spending, just not on tractors. Moyer said “Fleet capital spending priorities may be shifting toward trailers rather than tractors in the near term”. ACT’s preliminary US trailer orders for September were 42,700 units, up 311% on a year earlier and 75% on August. On a seasonally adjusted basis that was the third-highest total in 55 months.

Truckinginfo adds that higher diesel prices, insurance premiums and labour costs are squeezing carrier margins. That leaves less money for new equipment. A trailer has no engine and no emissions rule to wait for. It is the safe purchase when the tractor price is unknown.

Freight is going the other way

If the order slump reflected weak freight, we would expect soft rates. We see the opposite.

FreightWaves SONAR data reported on 9 November shows truckload tender volume, a measure of the loads shippers send to their contracted carriers, up nearly 5% in a week. The Tender Volume Index reached 11,600, up from just under 11,000 on 22 October.

Carriers are also turning down more of that freight. The Outbound Tender Rejection Index, the share of contracted loads a carrier refuses, was 12.95%, up 0.22 points in a week. FreightWaves said “flatbed rejections were even tighter at 21%”. When rejections rise, refused loads go to the spot market, where they are priced load by load, and spot rates climb.

That is happening. SONAR’s van spot rate was $3.49 a mile on 9 November, against $3.44 in September. Julie Van de Kamp of FreightWaves SONAR said “Spot rates are really going up across the country.” She added: “So much blue overall in this market, meaning that spot rates have risen in the past 4 days.”

The bigger signal is in contract pricing. The SONAR van contract linehaul rate reached $2.85 a mile, a 52-week high. Contract rates are what sit in shippers’ routing guides. They move slowly. When they hit a yearly high in November, the increase is already feeding into the 2027 bid season. Less-than-truckload costs are rising too, from $46.78 per hundredweight in August to $48.98 in October, FreightWaves reports. A hundredweight is 100 pounds.

What happened last time

The US has been through an emissions-driven buying cycle before. Transport Topics reported in October 2007 that US Class 8 retail sales fell 58.8% in September of that year, to 9,677 units from 23,499. Sales were down 44.3% year to date. The paper called it “the other side of the coin from last year’s pre-buy”. Fleets had bought heavily in 2006 to avoid trucks with the new federally required pollution controls. Freightliner said most of its customers “pre-bought trucks last year before EPA ’07 restrictions”.

The pattern then was a buying rush, then a slump, then several months of fleets running older equipment. This cycle has a twist. In 2006 everyone knew the 2007 rules. In 2026, with seven weeks to go, the 2027 rules are still not final. The slump has come early because there is no price to react to.

What this means for forwarders

Our reading is that tractors and drivers, not trailers, will be the limit on US truck capacity into 2027. Carriers that defer new tractors keep older ones longer. Those trucks cost more to maintain and break down more often. That does not add capacity. It just keeps current capacity running at a higher cost per mile, and carriers will try to pass that cost on.

For forwarders, that points to a few practical steps.

First, budget 2027 drayage and domestic linehaul on today’s contract rates or higher, not on a hoped-for easing. A contract rate at a 52-week high in November is a poor base for lower bids in the first quarter.

Second, expect carriers to push drop-trailer and power-only offers. In drop-trailer work, the carrier leaves a trailer at the shipper to be loaded while the tractor moves on. In power-only, the carrier supplies just tractor and driver. Fleets buying trailers instead of tractors will want to sweat each tractor harder. Shippers that can hold trailers at the dock will get better prices and better service.

Third, watch flatbed and project cargo. At 21% rejections, flatbed is already the tightest segment in the SONAR data. Machinery, steel and construction moves will feel any capacity squeeze first.

Fourth, keep LTL in the budget review. A rise of about $2.20 per hundredweight since August hits consolidation and deconsolidation costs at container freight stations.

Our call

We expect FTR’s November Class 8 net orders, due in early December, to stay below 20,000 units. We expect monthly orders to stay well under the 10-year average until EPA publishes a final 2027 rule. On the freight side, we expect the SONAR van contract rate to still be above $2.80 a mile at the end of January 2027. If EPA publishes a final rule before Christmas with clear penalty costs, deferred orders should start returning in the first quarter. Even then, new tractors would not reach fleets fast enough to ease 2027 bid pricing.

Sources

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