Sunday, October 25, 2026
The news that moves freight
Trucking & Rail Oct 25, 2026 · 9 min read

US diesel push and truck costs

Three diesel fixes in one week, and the pump price still says $6.28. On Thursday the White House invoked the Defense Production Act for oil refining. That same day, the first Russian diesel cargo under the Trump-Putin deal loaded at Primorsk. US diesel stands at $6.28 a gallon (EIA). Our view: none of this lowers truck costs this year. The tanker holds about 300,000 barrels, roughly 7% of one day’s US diesel use (AP). It lands in New York on 7 November. Carriers are already pushing rates up. Our prediction: diesel stays above $6 a gallon and DAT van linehaul stays above $2.20 a mile through end of November.

Washington’s three diesel fixes arrive too late and too small to move truck costs before December

On Thursday 22 October, President Trump signed a memo invoking part of the Defense Production Act for oil. The Defense Production Act (DPA) is a Cold War law that lets the government fund industries it calls vital to national defense. The memo covers petroleum production, refining, pipelines and liquid fuel storage. That same day, a Malta-flagged tanker loaded the first Russian diesel cargo under the Trump-Putin deal. And truckers now have an order letting them burn red-dyed diesel on the highway. Meanwhile, US diesel averages $6.28 a gallon, up nearly 10 cents in the latest week, according to Energy Information Administration (EIA) data reported by Reuters.

Our view is simple. None of these three steps will lower what a forwarder pays to move a container or a trailer inland before December. The Russian cargo is too small. The refining money is years from a barrel of fuel. The dyed-diesel order leaves the tax in place. Truck carriers are not waiting for Washington. They are already pushing rates up, and truck makers are limiting supply. Plan your Q1 inland budgets on $6 diesel, not on a political fix.

What Washington did this week

Start with the DPA memo. Reuters reports that it lets the government offer financial incentives for oil-related activities, pipelines and fuel storage. It says the US cannot provide enough of these services in a “timely manner due to constrained financing, long lead times, permitting and infrastructure bottlenecks”. It names no specific projects. Trump signed legislation last year that included $1bn in DPA funding for energy projects judged critical to national security. Vice President JD Vance said the Act would be used to expand capacity at a Texas refinery owned by Delek US Holdings.

A refinery expansion takes years, not weeks. The memo itself admits the problem is long lead times and bottlenecks. It does nothing for the price at the pump this quarter.

Next, the Russian diesel. According to LSEG ship-tracking data cited by Reuters, the tanker Agioi Fanendes loaded 40,000 tonnes of ultra-low-sulphur diesel at the Baltic port of Primorsk on 22 October. It is expected in New York on 7 November. The buyer and seller have not been named. The trade rests on OFAC General License 135, issued on 9 October, which temporarily allows deals in Russian diesel that sanctions would otherwise block (OFAC is the US Treasury office that runs sanctions). Trump announced an initial 300,000 tonnes, then 500,000 tonnes in November and 1 million tonnes “immediately thereafter”.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that a first ship had sailed, but did not say if it was bound for the US. He said more shipments would follow at a steady pace, Reuters reports. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Russia could return its diesel exports to their usual 3 to 3.5 million tonnes a month by year-end.

The third step is the dyed-diesel order, which Trump signed on stage at a campaign event in Nebraska. Red-dyed diesel is the fuel normally sold for off-road use, such as farm machinery. The order lets truckers use it on highways and waives some federal tax reporting and record-keeping rules. But Reuters reports that the IRS has not removed the federal diesel tax. It has only waived the related reporting requirements and penalties through year-end. That leaves truck stops and fuel sellers unsure where they stand.

Why it will not move the pump price

The numbers are against it. The first Russian cargo is about 300,000 barrels. That is roughly 7% of the 4 million or so barrels of diesel the US uses each day, according to AP, as cited by FreightWaves. Energy experts quoted by AP said the deal is unlikely to cut fuel prices much. It also arrives four days after the 3 November midterm elections.

Even the first tranche Trump announced is modest. Reuters puts those 300,000 tonnes at 2.25 million barrels, a little over half a day of US demand on AP’s figure.

The people who sell diesel to truckers are not convinced either. David Fialkov, top lobbyist at NATSO, the trade group for large US truck stop operators, called the dyed-fuel guidance “murky”. He said: “I really don’t see any of these dyed diesel announcements making a meaningful dent in diesel prices”.

The White House disagrees. Spokeswoman Taylor Rogers said: “The President wants diesel prices to fall”. The administration blames “pre-existing issues”, including refinery closures and the war in Ukraine. Analysts quoted by Reuters say the Iran conflict has been the bigger driver. Crude and diesel prices have surged since the US and Israel attacked Iran in late February.

Some see the moves as politics first. Matthias Matthijs of the Council on Foreign Relations said, as quoted by FreightWaves: “The diesel deal shows that Washington’s Russia policy is now driven by high prices at the pump”. Jefferies economist Mohit Kumar wrote in a 12 October note, quoted by CNBC and cited by FreightWaves: “Trump is exploring all avenues to bring down diesel prices before the mid-terms.”

For context, the EIA weekly average hit $6.285 a gallon in mid-September, which FreightWaves called the highest in its history. That broke AAA’s previous all-time high of $5.82 from June 2022. Today’s $6.28 sits close to the September peak.

Carriers are already passing the bill on

While Washington works on supply, carriers are working on price. Marten Transport, a refrigerated truckload carrier, reported Q3 on 23 October. Its shares fell about 7% in midday trading that day, FreightWaves reported.

In one-way truckload, revenue per loaded mile excluding fuel rose 14% from a year earlier to $3.02. Revenue per tractor rose 15% on a fleet 9% smaller. Yet the unit’s operating ratio (costs as a share of revenue) was 100.2%, so it still lost money. That was 280 basis points worse than Q2. Higher fuel and driver pay costs, partly offset by gains on equipment sales, cut net income by about $3.7m. Group net income was $2.9m, or 4 cents a share, 2 cents below consensus.

In dedicated, the operating ratio worsened 360 basis points from a year earlier to 97.6%. In brokerage, shipments fell 15% while revenue per load rose 17%.

Chairman and CEO Randy Marten said “The truckload freight market has sharply tightened since earlier this year”. He tied this to stricter enforcement that is removing non-compliant drivers from the market. He also said: “We are securing higher pricing from our customers for our premium services”.

Reefer is the tightest corner. FreightWaves SONAR data showed reefer tender rejections at 21.44% nationally on 20 October. That means carriers turned down about one in five contracted refrigerated loads. Julie Van de Kamp, quoted by FreightWaves, said: “I expect to see refrigerated rates continue to rise even more than van rates”.

The spot market is holding at a high level. DAT put dry van spot linehaul (the rate before fuel) at $2.26 a mile for the week ending 17 October. That is up 58 cents, or 34.5%, from a year earlier. DAT’s 35-day forecast puts van linehaul at $2.23 a mile, within a range of $2.16 to $2.30. Reefer linehaul stood at $2.76 and flatbed at $2.65 (DAT, via AJOT).

Supply of new trucks is tightening too

The other side of capacity is equipment. On 23 October, Volvo Group CEO Martin Lundstedt said the company had limited its 2027 North American order slots. He said: “We have been restrictive in our order slotting”. He wanted to avoid an order book “filled too far into 2027”, Transport Topics reports. The reason is the EPA’s rule on nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, which had not been finalised ahead of its 1 January start.

Demand for trucks is there. Volvo Trucks North America’s Q3 orders rose 61% to 6,729 and sales rose 58% to 6,948. Mack’s sales rose 28% to 6,675, but its orders fell 16% to 4,401. Volvo expects 265,000 North American heavy-duty retail sales in 2026 and 300,000 in 2027. “People need new trucks,” said Peter Voorhoeve, president of Volvo Trucks North America.

Leasing giant Ryder sees the same thing. Tom Havens, president of its Fleet Management Solutions unit, said on 22 October that “it’s pretty well understood at this point that price increases are coming in 2027.” Jeffrey Kauffman, an analyst at Citizens JMP Securities, said adding new tractors “is going to be kind of tough over the next six to nine months just because of the EPA mandate.” (FreightWaves).

What this means for forwarders

First, inland surcharges keep climbing. Maersk’s US inland fuel surcharge rises from $140 to $215 per container on 1 November, for shipments where Maersk arranges the trucking, according to Container News. Maersk cited rising US diesel prices. Check every door-delivery quote for the new figure.

Second, truckload and drayage carriers will build $6 diesel into Q1 and 2027 contract bids. Marten shows rates up double digits per mile and margins still under water. Carriers in that position ask for more, not less.

Third, reefer lanes deserve the most caution. Rejection rates above 20% mean contracted loads can fall to the spot market at short notice. Shippers of food and pharma should lock in capacity early.

Fourth, do not hold freight for a price drop after the election. The Russian cargo lands on 7 November. At around 7% of one day’s demand, it will not show up in the EIA weekly average.

Our call

Our prediction: diesel stays above $6 a gallon through the end of November, and DAT van linehaul holds above $2.20 a mile over the same period. DAT’s own forecast of $2.23 for late November looks about right to us. The risk is to the upside if diesel climbs again. We also still expect Werner, when it reports on 27 October, to point to higher contract and spot pricing as the fix, and more carriers reporting Q3 in the coming weeks to do the same.

Sources