Ocean Oct 15, 2026 · 7 min read

Hurricane Trudy heads for Manzanillo and Lázaro Cárdenas, a week after Simon

Manzanillo faces its second hurricane shutdown in a week. At 6pm Thursday, Hurricane Trudy had 90 mph winds and sat 385 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) said. NHC expects it to become a major hurricane by Friday night. It gives Manzanillo an 86% chance of tropical-storm-force winds within five days, and a 36% chance of hurricane-force winds. Our view: plan for Manzanillo to stop again this weekend. Hurricane Simon closed its terminals on 10 October. Gate, rail and vessel delays from both storms will stack up. We expect Manzanillo cargo to run late until at least end-October.

A week after Simon, a stronger hurricane is lining up on Manzanillo
At 6pm CST on Thursday 15 October, Hurricane Trudy had sustained winds of 90 mph. It was 385 miles (615 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico’s busiest container port, according to the US National Hurricane Center (NHC). NHC expects Trudy to become a major hurricane by Friday night. It also expects the storm to approach the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico on Saturday. A major hurricane is Category 3 or above, with winds of at least 111 mph.
Our view is simple. Forwarders should plan for Manzanillo, and probably Lázaro Cárdenas, to stop working again this weekend. That would be the second closure in about a week. The real damage will not be the closure itself. It will be the pile-up of two backlogs on top of each other: boxes, trucks, trains and ships that were already running late after Hurricane Simon.

What the forecasters are saying

NHC’s latest public advisory, number 10A, gives the hard numbers. Trudy was at 14.0N, 101.8W, moving north-northwest at 6 mph. Its central pressure was 978 mb. Lower pressure means a stronger storm.
Two alerts are in force. A hurricane watch covers the coast from north of Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, which includes Manzanillo. A watch means hurricane conditions are possible. A tropical storm warning covers Punta San Telmo south to Zihuatanejo, which includes Lázaro Cárdenas. A warning means tropical-storm conditions are expected. NHC says tropical-storm conditions are expected in the warning area by early Saturday, and should spread into the hurricane watch area on Saturday.
On strength, NHC says: “Rapid intensification is forecast to resume tonight”. Its forecast discussion, written by forecaster Beven, has winds rising from 80 knots on Thursday afternoon to a peak of 125 knots, about 145 mph, early on Saturday. That is Category 4. The forecast then eases the storm to 120 knots by midday Saturday and 105 knots around midnight Saturday into Sunday. The forecast track at that point sits just offshore, west-southwest of Manzanillo.
The key risk is the track. NHC says “The bulk of the track guidance keeps the center just offshore of the coast.” It then adds: “However, any track to the right of the official forecast - such as shown by the GFS - would bring the center onshore.” The GFS is one of the main US weather models. In plain terms, a small shift east would bring the center of a major hurricane onto land near the ports. NHC notes it would then weaken quickly.
NHC also expects more alerts. It says “additional watches will likely be required further up the coast tonight or Friday.”

The odds for each port

NHC publishes the chance of damaging winds at each place over the next five days. Its Thursday afternoon numbers for Manzanillo were:

86% chance of tropical-storm-force winds (at least 39 mph)

58% chance of 50-knot winds (about 58 mph)

36% chance of hurricane-force winds (at least 74 mph)

For Lázaro Cárdenas, the figures were 57%, 14% and 5%.
Rain is the other threat. NHC forecasts 4 to 8 inches of rain in Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco, with isolated totals around 12 inches. It warns of life-threatening flooding and mudslides. Those are the states that hold both ports and the roads and rail lines that lead inland.
Mexico’s national water agency, Conagua, also expects Trudy could reach Category 4 by the weekend as it moves northwest toward Michoacán and Colima, the Gringo Gazette reported on Thursday.
There is one more wrinkle. Simon is still out there. It weakened to a tropical storm and was sitting stationary about 430 km southeast of Cabo San Lucas on Thursday morning, Conagua said, according to the Gringo Gazette. The Rio Times reported that NHC said Simon could interact with Trudy and complicate its steering. That adds to the track uncertainty.

What happened last time

Last week gives a clear template. C.H. Robinson’s advisory on Hurricane Simon, dated 9 October, reported:

Contecon Manzanillo, SSA Marine México (TEC I and OCUPA) and Hutchison Ports TIMSA closed on Saturday 10 October.

SSA Marine stopped vessel operations at 3:59pm on Friday 9 October.

New gate appointments were suspended at SSA Marine and TIMSA. Saturday slots moved to Monday 12 October, when terminals planned to restart.

Granelera Manzanillo stopped loading rail equipment at midnight on Saturday 10 October, with a planned restart at 8am on Monday 12 October.

“The port of Lázaro Cárdenas has been closed to all vessels.”

The advisory also warned: “Expect delays greater than usual for cargo moving through both ports through the weekend and into next week.” It flagged long truck lines once terminals reopened, slower customs processing and tight trucking capacity. It said Asian components for manufacturers in Mexico could be late, and so could northbound moves to the US that depend on them.
Simon was a Category 2 storm passing off the coast. Trudy is forecast to be stronger and closer.
There is also a lesson from 2025 on how slowly Manzanillo recovers. In June 2025, FreightWaves reported on a customs workers’ strike at the port that ran from 12 to 15 May. Even after the port resumed full operations on 21 May, the backlog lingered. FreightWaves cited an estimate that operations could take up to five weeks to normalize. A few days of lost time at a port this size takes weeks to work through.

Why this port matters so much

Manzanillo handled 2,071,263 TEU (twenty-foot equivalent units, the standard container measure) in the first half of 2026, up 9.9% on a year earlier, Container News reported in July. That works out to roughly 11,000 TEU a day on average, by our arithmetic. FreightWaves reported in 2025 that the port handles about 45% of containers arriving in Mexico by ocean, with around 4,000 truck movements a day.
So every day the port is shut, something like 11,000 TEU of work gets pushed into the following days. And this time those following days already hold Simon’s leftover work.

What it means for forwarders and shippers

Our read is that the effects will show up in four places.
First, vessels. Ships held offshore during the storm will arrive at the same time once the port reopens. That is called bunching. Carriers may skip Manzanillo on some sailings, or move cargo to Lázaro Cárdenas or other ports. That shifts the problem rather than solving it.
Second, gates and trucks. Gate appointments are the booked time slots trucks need to collect or drop boxes. They were already being rescheduled after Simon. A second closure means another round of cancelled slots and long truck queues, just as C.H. Robinson described last week.
Third, rail. Intermodal rail from Manzanillo feeds central Mexico and US-bound flows. Rail loading stopped for more than two days during Simon. Heavy rain on the routes inland could add track or road closures on top.
Fourth, charges. Demurrage is the fee for leaving a container in the terminal past its free time. Detention is the fee for keeping a carrier’s container outside the terminal past its free time. When ports close, both clocks can keep running unless carriers or terminals agree to stop them. Forwarders should ask carriers now, in writing, how they will treat free time during closures.
For shippers, the practical steps are plain. Check which boxes are due through Manzanillo and Lázaro Cárdenas in the next two weeks. Tell customers in Mexico’s manufacturing belt, and US buyers who rely on those plants, that dates will slip. Look at whether urgent parts should move by air or through other gateways. Keep an eye on NHC’s advisories every six hours, because the track can still shift.
Lázaro Cárdenas is not a clean fallback. It shares the same coast, sits inside the current tropical storm warning, and was closed to all vessels during Simon. Moving cargo there may save a day or two on a single shipment. It does not take the storm out of the plan. Gulf ports such as Veracruz are on the other coast, but switching means a longer ocean route from Asia and fresh bookings. For most Asia–Mexico freight already on the water, the realistic choice is to wait and to manage the costs of waiting.

Our call

This is our forecast, not a confirmed outcome. We expect Manzanillo’s main container terminals to halt vessel operations for at least 24 hours over the weekend of 17 and 18 October, and Lázaro Cárdenas to close to vessels for at least part of the weekend. We expect delays on Manzanillo cargo, by ship, truck and rail, to last until at least the end of October. If Trudy’s center crosses onto land near either port, we expect that recovery to stretch into mid-November.

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