Ocean Oct 14, 2026 · 8 min read

Trudy threatens Manzanillo and Lázaro Cárdenas days after Simon shut them

Trudy is aiming at the ports Simon just closed. Tropical Storm Trudy had 65 mph winds at 3 p.m. Mexico City time on 14 October (NHC Advisory 6). The forecast makes it a major hurricane by Friday. NHC gives Manzanillo a 67% chance of tropical-storm-force winds by Monday and Lázaro Cárdenas 60%. Our view: the danger for cargo is less a direct hit than a fresh closure days after Simon’s. The Navy closed both ports to all shipping during Hurricane Simon. Our call: both are closed between Friday and Sunday, and Pacific Mexico schedules slip three to five days into the week of 26 October.

Trudy threatens a fresh closure at Mexico’s Pacific container gateways, days after Simon
At 3 p.m. Mexico City time on Wednesday 14 October, Tropical Storm Trudy was about 570 miles (915 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo. Its sustained winds were near 65 mph (100 km/h). Those figures come from the US National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) Public Advisory 6. The NHC expects Trudy to become a major hurricane (Category 3 or stronger) on Friday. It forecasts a peak near 130 mph.
Our view is simple. The biggest risk for cargo is not a direct hit on a port city. It is another navigation closure at Manzanillo and Lázaro Cárdenas, days after Simon shut both. That would land on top of any backlog left by Hurricane Simon. Forwarders should plan now for both ports to be shut over the weekend.

Where Trudy is and where it is going

All figures here come from the NHC’s 3 p.m. CST (Mexico City time) package on 14 October: Public Advisory 6, Forecast Discussion 6 and Wind Speed Probabilities 6. The next full advisory was due at 9 p.m. CST. Trudy is moving fast, so check for newer numbers.
At that time, Trudy was at 11.9°N, 100.0°W, about 345 miles (555 km) south of Acapulco. It was moving west-northwest at about 9 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds reached up to 90 miles (150 km) from the centre. The storm had strengthened quickly. On Tuesday night it had 45 mph winds, according to The Rio Times, which reported NHC’s earlier Advisory 3.
The NHC discussion says: “Trudy is forecast to be a major hurricane as it approaches the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico late this week and into the weekend.” It adds: “There is an increasing risk of wind, rain, and storm surge impacts”.
The forecast puts the peak, 115 knots (130 mph), around 60 hours out. That is early on Saturday 17 October, UTC. After that, stronger wind shear and drier air should cause gradual weakening. NHC’s forecast points then carry the centre north-west, parallel to the coast. By midday Sunday it sits west of Manzanillo. Then it may turn back west, away from land.
The track is the hard part. NHC says the ridge of high pressure steering Trudy “is expected to weaken on Thursday, as Trudy moves closer to Hurricane Simon.” Simon was still a hurricane on Wednesday afternoon, with 75 mph winds, south-south-east of the tip of Baja California. Two storms this close can push each other around. The Rio Times reported that NHC had called the track “more uncertain than usual” from Friday evening.
As of Advisory 6, no coastal watches or warnings were in force. NHC said watches would likely be issued on Wednesday night or Thursday for parts of south-western and west-central Mexico.

The numbers that matter for the two ports

NHC publishes wind odds for named places. These are the cumulative chances from midday Wednesday to midday Monday 19 October (Mexico City time):

Manzanillo: 67% chance of tropical-storm-force winds (39 mph or more), 35% chance of 58 mph or more, 18% chance of hurricane-force winds (74 mph or more).

Lázaro Cárdenas: 60% tropical-storm-force, 22% for 58 mph or more, 11% hurricane-force.

The timing differs. At Lázaro Cárdenas, most of the risk falls between noon Friday and noon Saturday. NHC puts the chance of tropical-storm-force winds arriving in that window at 49%. At Manzanillo, the peak window is noon Saturday to noon Sunday, at 43%.
The odds have moved since Tuesday. Based on Advisory 3, The Rio Times reported 72% and 19% for Lázaro Cárdenas and 64% and 24% for Manzanillo. The latest odds of hurricane-force winds are lower at both ports. That fits a forecast centre that stays offshore. But the odds of tropical-storm-force winds at Manzanillo went up. For port operations, that is the figure that counts. Cranes stop and pilots stop boarding well below hurricane strength.
Rain and sea state matter too. NHC expects 2 to 4 inches of rain through the weekend, with up to about 6 inches in places along the coast from Guerrero to Jalisco. That could cause flash flooding on steep ground, which is relevant for inland roads and rail. Swells should reach the coast late this week, and the NHC advisory says they “are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.” Port captain Arturo Martínez Ortiz reported swells of 1.8 to 2.7 metres from Chiapas to Jalisco, The Rio Times said.

What happened last time: Simon

We don’t have to guess how Mexico’s Navy (Semar) responds. It showed us in the past week.
On 8 October, Semar closed Lázaro Cárdenas to large vessels (“embarcaciones mayores”) as Simon approached, Por Esto reported. By 9 October the port “permanece cerrado a la navegación para todo tipo de embarcaciones” (remains closed to all types of vessel), the same paper said. Manzanillo started with a closure to small craft only. By 10 October, N+ quoted the Navy: “La navegación está totalmente restringida” (navigation is completely restricted) at Manzanillo, San Blas and Lázaro Cárdenas. Manzanillo’s airport closed from 6 p.m. on 10 October until 8 a.m. on 11 October.
On 12 October, Plano Informativo reported that Semar said “continúa el cierre a toda navegación” (the closure to all navigation continues) at both ports. Por Esto quoted the Navy’s own update the same day: “Se mantiene el cierre a la navegación en San Blas, Nayarit; Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco; Manzanillo, Colima”. None of these reports gave a reopening date.
So Lázaro Cárdenas was shut to large ships from 8 October, and Manzanillo to all shipping from at least 10 October. Both were still closed on 12 October.
It was not the first time this autumn. On 30 September, Crónica reported that Manzanillo “volvió a permitir el ingreso y salida de embarcaciones mayores” (allowed large vessels in and out again) after weather restrictions in the preceding hours. If Trudy closes the port, that will be the third weather stoppage in less than three weeks.

What this means for forwarders and shippers

Any ships still delayed by Simon would be joined by a second wave if the ports close again over the weekend. Our reading is that this backlog, not the storm itself, is what will hurt schedules into late October.
Here is what we expect on the ground:

Bunching. Ships that wait out the storm at sea or at anchor all arrive at once when the port reopens. Terminals then work through them in order, so berthing delays can last well beyond the closure.

Missed cut-offs. Export boxes held at terminals may miss their planned vessel and roll to the next sailing. That is often a week later on Asia–Mexico services.

Charges. Imports stuck behind closures can run past free time. That is the number of days before demurrage (port storage charges) and detention (container hire charges) start. Waivers are not automatic. You usually have to ask.

Inland legs. Heavy rain on steep ground raises the risk of washed-out roads and slower rail from both ports into central Mexico. Rail and truck capacity is also likely to be tight after reopening, when everything moves at once.

Air. Manzanillo’s airport shut for Simon. Belly cargo through Pacific coast airports could be hit again, but that is a small share of freight for most forwarders.

What to do this week:

Tell customers now that arrivals at Manzanillo and Lázaro Cárdenas between 16 and 19 October are at risk. Do it before the closure notice, not after.

Ask carriers and terminals in writing whether they will extend free time or waive storage for boxes caught by closures. Keep the Semar closure notices as evidence.

Check your contracts and quotes for storm and force majeure wording. Force majeure is the clause that excuses delays outside anyone’s control. Know who pays for extra storage and re-handling.

Where cargo is urgent and not yet loaded, ask whether a later vessel or a different routing makes more sense than joining the queue.

Pre-book trucks and rail slots for the reopening window, as capacity will be scarce.

Our call

This is our forecast, not NHC’s. Semar will close Lázaro Cárdenas to large vessels by Friday 16 October and Manzanillo by Saturday 17 October. Both ports will stay closed to large ships for at least 48 hours. Arrivals will slip three to five days, and the knock-on delays will run into the week of 26 October.
If Trudy turns away from the coast early, as NHC’s later forecast points suggest it might, the closures could be shorter. Even then, we expect both ports to close for part of the weekend. During Simon, the Navy closed early and kept the ports shut for days.

Sources