Monday, October 26, 2026
The news that moves freight
Ocean Oct 26, 2026 · 7 min read

Canada deal talk meets the 30 October list

“Very close” doesn’t change Friday’s Canada list. On Sunday, Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, told Fox News Sunday that the US and Canada are “very close” to a trade deal (BNN Bloomberg). In our view that is talk, not a tariff change. The new 50% list still starts on 30 October. It frees 22 products and adds 100 (Global News). In August Trump called a Canada deal done, and it fell apart days later (The Hub). Our advice: plan cross-border freight on the published list. Our prediction: the 50% tariff still applies to Canadian goods on 31 December 2026.

“Very close” is not a tariff rate: plan Canadian freight on the 30 October list

On Sunday 25 October, Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, went on Fox News Sunday and said the US and Canada are “very close” to a trade deal. “The negotiations have picked up. They’re gathering steam,” he said, as reported by BNN Bloomberg. He said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick had been talking with Canadian officials through the week before. On Friday, Trump said a deal was close and that his team holds “all the cards.”

Our view is simple. This is talk, not a change in duty. Nothing Hassett said changes what a customs broker files on Friday 30 October. That is when the new list of Canadian goods facing a 50% tariff takes effect. Forwarders should plan on the published list and treat any deal as upside, not the base case.

What is actually changing on 30 October

The 50% tariff comes from Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930. That law lets a president put duties on a country he says discriminates against US trade. According to the Associated Press, it had never been used in a trade dispute before Trump used it against Canada in August. He cited Canada’s treatment of US dairy, autos and alcoholic drinks. AP puts the goods covered at about $20 billion.

On 23 October the White House changed the list. Global News reports that 22 products “previously subject to 50 per cent tariffs would be allowed to cross the border duty free.” These include corrugated paper and boxes, farm machinery, and seaweed and algae products. At the same time, “100 new products were added under Section 338.” These include cocoa powder, paints and varnishes, shampoo and wooden coffins. BNN Bloomberg adds vinyl flooring to the new list and some plywood to the list coming off.

Global News gives a value for each side, using 2025 US trade numbers. The goods coming off are worth $5.1 billion. The goods going on are worth $2.6 billion. By our arithmetic, that cuts the value of trade facing the 50% rate by about $2.5 billion. The White House says the changes “will come into effect Oct. 30.”

The effect on individual firms is not small. Jean-François Dufresne is CEO of Preverco, a Canadian hardwood flooring maker. “Overnight, we’re losing 25 per cent of our business,” he told BNN Bloomberg. He has asked Canada’s finance minister for a meeting.

Why we don’t trust the “very close” line

Three things make us doubt that a deal is near.

First, the last time Washington said this, it was wrong. In August, Trump said a Canada deal was done. The Hub reports that the talks then fell apart on a Friday evening, less than an hour before the deadline to finalise. Sources told The Hub that Lutnick pushed for harsher terms than the chief US negotiator, Jamieson Greer. The reported late demands included leaving mid- and heavy-duty trucks out of the auto relief and carving aluminium products out of the tariff cut. Prime Minister Mark Carney walked away. “We were not prepared to compromise Canada’s sovereignty or to undermine key industries,” he said, as quoted by The Hub. The 50% tariffs followed.

Second, the deal on the table then was large. The Hub lists its reported terms: the auto tariff cut from 25% to 15%, steel within a four-million-tonne quota at 25% instead of 50%, aluminium halved to 25%, and a 10% softwood lumber levy removed. A deal that big needs text, legal review and a signing. None of that has been announced. A list change that starts in five days has.

Third, Hassett’s own explanation for the delay is shaky. He blamed the “Canadian election that just happened, including Alberta separating,” saying it made it “essentially impossible to negotiate with the Canadians” (BNN Bloomberg). But BNN Bloomberg also notes that Albertans voted that same week against holding a binding referendum on leaving Canada. When the stated reason for a hold-up has already gone away and there is still no deal, we read that as a reason to doubt the timeline.

Ottawa is not sounding urgent either. Dominic LeBlanc, the minister for Canada–US trade, said through his office that the government will assess the new measures. It added that Canada “stands ready to work constructively and in good faith towards a more mutually beneficial trading relationship” (BNN Bloomberg). That is a holding statement, not a signal that a deal is about to be signed.

The midterms are shaping the list

The US midterm elections are on 3 November. The timing of the list change is hard to ignore. Global News reports that Maine Republican Senator Susan Collins, who is running for re-election, said she “secured additional tariff exemptions” for products that matter to her state’s farmers. Global News cites a poll showing her tied with her Democratic challenger, Troy Jackson, at 49 per cent each.

Our reading: some of this list was drawn with voters in mind. That cuts both ways for forwarders. It suggests the list will keep changing as political needs shift. It also suggests a full deal is less likely to land before polling day, because a list change already gives the White House something to point to.

The same pattern shows up on the southern border. SteelOrbis, citing Bloomberg, reported on 23 October that US–Mexico talks have stalled over cuts to the 50% Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminium. Section 232 is the national-security tariff law. The US counterproposal did not address Mexico’s concerns, SteelOrbis says, and “Significant progress could consequently be delayed until after the November 3 US midterm elections.” Mexico’s ambassador, Roberto Lazzeri, said the tariffs are still the main sticking point. The Rio Times reported on 17 October that Washington charges 25% on Mexican cars, and that Mexico wants no carmaker to pay more than 15%. Both North American deals are being talked up. Neither has a text.

What forwarders and shippers should do now

Run every Canadian product code against the new list this week. A product code here means the HTS code, the US tariff classification number that decides the duty. Sort clients into three groups.

Goods coming off the list should, where possible, clear on or after 30 October. A few days in a bonded warehouse may cost less than a 50% duty. Check the effective-date wording in the official notice before you advise on any single shipment.

Goods going onto the list should cross before 30 October if the paperwork and trucks allow. We expect a short rush on those goods late this week, so book capacity early.

Goods that don’t change still face the same 50% rate. Don’t let clients hold them in the hope of a deal. In our view, the cost of waiting is higher than the chance of relief before the midterms.

There is also a legal angle. On 20 October, a New Jersey cheese importer, the Gellert Global Group, sued in the US Court of International Trade to overturn the Section 338 tariffs, AP reports. The Liberty Justice Center, which represents Gellert, argues that newer trade laws made the 1930 power obsolete. “No president should have the power to pull a dormant statute off the shelf,” said its chair, Sara Albrecht. If courts strike the tariffs down, importers may seek refunds. Keep entry records clean and complete for every Canadian shipment that paid the 50% rate.

Some Canadian shippers will reroute to Europe or Asia, or move production south, rather than wait. We expect less cross-border truck demand in the sectors on the new list, such as flooring, paints and personal care, and softer rates for those loads in November.

For Mexico, plan steel, aluminium and auto flows at today’s rates: 50% on metals and 25% on cars. Any cut is now a story for after the election, not before it.

Our call

We don’t expect a signed US–Canada deal before the 3 November midterms. Our prediction: the 50% Section 338 duty is still in force on Canadian goods on 31 December 2026. We also predict that the product list is amended at least once more before then, by a proclamation adding or removing named products. The latest list was announced on 23 October and takes effect on 30 October, giving importers seven days’ notice. We expect that short notice on the added products to show up as an argument in the Court of International Trade challenges by the end of Q1 2027. If a deal does come, we expect it to start with sector cuts on autos, steel and aluminium. We don’t expect it to scrap the Section 338 list in one go. In August, Washington called a deal done and it collapsed within days. Until a text is published, plan on the list.

Sources