Ocean Oct 14, 2026 · 8 min read

Panama Canal adds a 33rd daily slot

Panama’s extra slot is a pause, not a recovery. From 15 October, the Panama Canal offers 33 daily transit slots, up from 32. The extra one is in the big Neopanamax locks, where the draft limit (how deep a loaded ship may sit) rose to 49 feet, per a Panama Canal Authority advisory. We think this is a short break before a harder 2027. The canal ran 38 transits a day in May. The authority itself says “the water deficit continues”. Forwarders on Asia–US East Coast lanes should price Panama risk into 2027 contracts now. Our call: slots fall back to 32 or fewer by end of February 2027.

Panama adds a 33rd slot on 15 October. Plan for 2027 as if it never happened From Thursday 15 October, the Panama Canal will offer 33 daily transit slots, one more than the 32 it has run since mid-September. The Panama Canal Authority announced the change in an advisory to shipping in late September. It said it “will increase to 10 the number of daily transits in the Neopanamax locks”, for “a total of 33 daily slots within Neopanamax and Panamax locks beginning October 15, 2026” (AJOT, 28 September). In the same advisory it raised the maximum draft in the Neopanamax locks to 14.94 metres (49 feet), “effective immediately and until further notice”.
Two terms first. The Neopanamax locks are the larger, newer set of locks. They take the biggest container ships and gas carriers. The older Panamax locks take smaller vessels, including the Panamax-size bulk ships that carry most grain, according to AgBull. Draft is how deep a loaded ship sits in the water. A higher draft limit lets a ship carry more cargo on the same transit.
Our view is simple. This is good news for one quarter and should not change how anyone plans for 2027. The canal has given back a little of what it took away in September. It has not returned to normal. And the authority’s own warnings point to a harder year ahead.

What changes on 15 October

The extra slot goes to the big locks. In August, Reuters reported that Neopanamax capacity would be capped at nine slots from 4 September, with the Panamax locks at 25. From 15 September the Panamax locks were cut again, to 23, “lowering total daily passages to 32”, as FreshFruitPortal put it. The 15 October change lifts the Neopanamax locks to 10 slots. With the Panamax locks still at 23, that gives 33.
So the relief lands on the ships forwarders care most about: the large container ships on Asia to US East Coast and Gulf services. Grain and other bulk cargo in smaller ships get nothing new.
The draft change matters too. ICIS reported that the new 49-foot limit is “up from 48.5 feet”. That does not line up neatly with Reuters, which reported in August that planned cuts to 48 feet and 47.5 feet had been pushed back to 2 September and 1 October. Neither report sets out every draft change in between. What is clear is that the limit now stands at 49 feet, above both of those planned levels. Each extra half foot lets a large ship load more boxes on the same call.
ICIS gave the reasons. Rainfall across the canal’s watershed is close to average, and Gatun Lake, the man-made lake that feeds the locks, is “slightly above the 10-year average”. The advisory credits “the close to average precipitation on the Canal watershed and the effective water saving measures implemented in the Locks”.

Why this is a pause, not a recovery

Look at where the canal was five months ago. On 20 May, Container News reported that the canal “currently continues normal operations with 38 daily transits”. It also said the authority did “not expect transit restrictions through the end of 2026”. That forecast did not hold. Industrial Info Resources reported on 11 September that the authority had cut daily capacity from 36 vessels to 34 earlier that month, with a further cut to 32 scheduled for 15 September.
The cause was rain. Reuters reported that “rainfall from May through August was 34% below the historical average” and that “watershed inflows plummeted 44% below normal”. After 15 October, the canal is still five slots below its May level, a cut of about 13%.
The authority is not claiming the problem is solved. The same advisory that adds the slot says: “While the water deficit continues in the Canal watershed, the Transit Reservation (Booking) System remains the only way to guarantee a transit date.” It adds: “Vessels without a reservation may therefore face indefinite delays.”
That is a plain warning. Ships that turn up without a booking can wait as long as it takes. In a tight market, booked slots go to the carriers that plan ahead and pay for them.

The El Niño problem

El Niño is a recurring warming of the Pacific that tends to bring less rain to Panama. The canal depends on rain to refill Gatun Lake, because every ship that passes through the locks uses fresh water from the lake.
This El Niño looks strong. Industrial Info Resources wrote on 11 September that “the 2026 El Niño is strengthening and has a greater than 90% chance of becoming very strong”. It also noted that “79% of the 14 lowest-water events analyzed since 1965 were associated with El Niño conditions in the preceding year”.
Timing is the key point. The canal itself has said that stronger impacts from moderate or severe El Niño events usually appear in the following year, according to Container News. ICIS reported that the authority is already “looking at steps it can take in 2027”. Reuters quoted the authority warning that “the anticipated severity of the 2026-2027 El Niño event could further reduce precipitation”.
Put those together. Today’s water comfort comes from a wet season that is ending. The test comes when the rains stop. That is when the lake has to carry the canal through months with little inflow.

What happened last time

The 2023 drought is the best guide to what a bad year looks like. Industrial Info Resources reported that “extremely low Gatún Lake levels forced daily transits down to as few as 22 vessels” during 2023 and 2024. That is a third fewer slots than the canal will offer from 15 October.
AgBull, a grain-market publication, wrote in July that in that episode waits at Panama peaked “near 21 days” and canal throughput at times ran “as much as 40% below normal”. It also pointed out that “the deepest transit cuts did not land until December through the following spring”. In other words, the worst came months after the first warnings.
The canal’s administrator, Ricaurte Vasquez, says the authority has learned from that. “The experience of 2023 and 2024 has prepared us well for what we know,” he said at a business event in August, according to Reuters. “The canal does not improvise.”
We take him at his word. A canal that does not improvise moves early. That is exactly what it did in September, when it cut slots well before the dry season. We expect it to do the same again as 2027 approaches.

What it means for forwarders and shippers

The US has the most at stake. ICIS reported that in 2024, “52% of transits through the canal had ports of origin or destinations in the US”, and that “more than 76% of the cargo that transited the canal had the US as its origin or destination”. That makes the canal a key all-water route between Asia and the US Gulf and East Coast.
In the short term, the extra Neopanamax slot and the deeper draft should ease pressure on all-water services from Asia to the US East Coast and Gulf. Carriers can load a little more per ship and should face less queuing risk. That may help schedule reliability on these lanes through the rest of the fourth quarter.
For the medium term, our advice is:

Treat 33 slots as a ceiling for planning, not a floor. Build 2027 routings on the assumption that Panama capacity falls again in the first half of the year.

Ask carriers which services hold booked transit slots, and how they will handle a draft cut. A service that loses a foot of draft may cut boxes, shift cargo to the next sailing or add a surcharge.

Put Panama clauses into 2027 contracts now: who pays a drought surcharge, and what happens if a service is rerouted via Suez or switched to a US West Coast landing plus rail.

Watch the grain and bulk side. Bulk ships use the older Panamax locks, which still have only 23 slots. In 2023–24, AgBull reported, booking auctions priced bulk carriers out of the queue.

Keep an eye on the authority’s weekly lake projections and advisories. Slot changes in 2026 came with about two to four weeks’ notice, and the latest draft change took effect immediately.

Our prediction

We expect the extra slot to be short-lived. By the end of February 2027, we predict the Panama Canal Authority will either cut daily slots back to 32 or fewer, or lower the Neopanamax draft below 49 feet, or both. We also expect no return to the 36 to 38 daily transits of the first half of 2026 before the middle of 2027 at the earliest.
If we are right, forwarders who locked in Panama-dependent all-water pricing for 2027 without a surcharge or reroute clause will be carrying the risk themselves. One more slot this week does not change that.

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