US truck prices, inventories and diesel: early November 2026
Shippers are stocking up faster than trucks can be found, and the bill is landing in 2027 contracts
The October Logistics Managers’ Index (LMI) came out on Tuesday 3 November. It shows US transportation prices at 88 and transportation capacity at 38. That gap of 50 points says freight costs are rising fast while transport capacity keeps shrinking.
The LMI is a monthly survey of US supply chain managers. Each reading is a diffusion index. Above 50 means the measure is growing. Below 50 means it is shrinking. The further a reading sits from 50, the faster the change. Capacity at 38 means less transport capacity is available than a month ago. It has fallen for the 11th month in a row.
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Our view is simple. The small drop in diesel this week does not change anything for US inland freight. What drives this market now is demand: shippers are pulling stock in for the holidays. Supply is not keeping up either, because truck capacity has been shrinking all year. Forwarders who quote US door delivery should plan for carriers to push rates up into 2027, not down.
What the October index shows
The headline LMI was 70.7, up from 70.2 in September. The report calls it the second-highest reading in four years, behind only June. Inventories are driving it.
Inventory levels rose 8 points to 66.9. The LMI report says that was the fastest expansion since September 2022. Inventory levels went “from robust expansion at 61.8 early in October to significant expansion at 72.1 later in the month,” the report says. In other words, the stock build got faster as the month went on.
Holding that stock is expensive. Inventory costs rose 8.9 points to 88.8. In the LMI’s words, that “is the highest reading for this metric since March of 2022.” Warehousing prices passed 80 for the first time in over two years, at 80.7. Warehousing capacity was 43.5, so warehouse space is still shrinking. Aggregate logistics costs, which combine the transport, warehousing and inventory cost readings, came in at 257.5. The report says that “is the fastest rate of expansion for this metric since March of 2022.”
The report also points to a cause. It says the data is “suggesting that a significant driver of this upward movement is retailers stocking up for holiday sales.” Downstream retailers built stock faster than upstream firms such as manufacturers and wholesalers, at 69.6 against 64.1.
FreightWaves’ Todd Maiden quotes the report as saying “firms are now pulling inventories in as quickly as they can”. The LMI also explains why this stock build is late: “Instead of storing up inventories to stay ahead of tariffs, firms kept inventories low to avoid them.” Shippers held back for most of 2026. Now they are catching up all at once, with peak season and tight trucking running at the same time.
Transport prices eased a little, but the gap is still wide
Transportation prices fell 4.7 points to 88 in October. The LMI says pricing “is still expanding at a highly significant rate.” Upstream firms read 88.9 and downstream firms 85.7. The report says that difference was not statistically significant. This means the pressure is felt across the whole supply chain.
Transportation capacity rose 3.6 points to 38, which means it shrank more slowly than in September. Transportation utilization, how fully firms are using the transport they have, was 63.5. That was down 2.6 points but still growing.
Some context matters here. In September, FreightWaves reported transportation prices at 92.7 and capacity at 34.4. That was a gap of about 58 points. In October the gap narrowed to 50. That is a sign the squeeze is easing a little. It is not relief. A 50-point gap is still very wide. The LMI’s own summary is blunt: “High freight rates are driven by both high demand and a lack of supply.”
Respondents also expect it to continue. Over the next 12 months they forecast transportation prices at 90, capacity at 49.3 and utilization at 67.6. So they expect capacity to stop shrinking, but they still expect prices to rise. The forecast pricing reading is higher than October’s actual one.
Carriers are already asking for more
Contract bid season has started. In a bid, shippers tender a year of freight and carriers quote fixed rates for it. Carriers are bidding from a strong position.
FreightWaves reports Knight-Swift is targeting “at least double-digit [rate] increases” in the annual contract talks that just began. The article says roughly 70% of Knight-Swift’s truckload fleet runs on non-dedicated agreements, so most of its fleet reprices in these talks. FreightWaves also says Knight-Swift is seeing the most peak-season project freight in its network since the pandemic. It adds that SONAR contract rate data shows “Recent contract renewals are averaging 13%.” Maiden concludes “that rates are likely to remain on the rise for the foreseeable future.”
This did not start in October. In July, FreightWaves reported that Knight-Swift’s truckload revenue per loaded mile, excluding fuel, had risen 5.6% year on year in the second quarter, to $2.89. Its CEO Adam Miller linked the tighter market to regulators removing carriers that break the rules. “We’ve just never seen the FMCSA, the DOT with the push that they’re making on cleaning up our industry,” he said. The FMCSA is the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, part of the Department of Transportation. Miller called the change “durable” and said it “raises the floor” for rates, according to FreightWaves.
Taken together, the push for higher rates has been building since at least the spring. It started with enforcement removing trucks. Peak-season inventory demand added to it in the autumn. Now carriers want to lock it into 2027 contracts.
Diesel dipped, and the dip does not matter much
Fuel was the one figure that moved the other way this week. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) put the on-highway diesel average for 2 November at $6.292 a gallon. That was down $0.060 from $6.352 a week earlier, and $2.539 higher than a year ago. On EIA’s figures, diesel costs about two-thirds more than it did this time last year.
Regional prices vary a lot. California was $8.076, down 7.9 cents. The West Coast as a whole was $7.272. The Midwest was $6.402, New England $6.416 and the Gulf Coast $5.912. Regular gasoline averaged $4.153, down 11.6 cents. EIA’s next update is due on 10 November.
This matters for one reason. Many US truck and LTL (less-than-truckload, or shared-trailer) fuel surcharge tables reset each week from this EIA average. A 6-cent dip barely moves the surcharge. It does nothing to base linehaul, which is the rate for the haul itself and the part carriers are now pushing up.
Russian diesel will not change that soon. On 2 November, New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill wrote to port and terminal operators. She warned that importing Russian diesel under the administration’s import licence “directly conflicts with federal law,” The Maritime Executive reports. She also said it could expose operators to “millions of dollars in penalties”. The same report says Windward tracking shows only one tanker still apparently bound for the US East Coast, the Greek-owned Agioi Fanendes. That tanker has changed its listed destination from New York to “for orders”. The article adds that “the forecast was that the imports would have no meaningful impact on the cost of diesel fuel in the United States.”
What it means for forwarders
First, US inland quotes will not last long. If you quote door delivery, drayage (moving containers between port and warehouse) or transload on imports arriving in December and January, keep validity short. Put a fuel clause in, tied to the EIA weekly average. At $6.29 diesel, fuel surcharge alone is a big line on any long-haul move.
Second, budget for 2027 now. Shippers running their own truckload bids should expect opening asks of 10% or more on base rates. Forwarders who buy trucking for clients should tell them early. That beats explaining a price jump in February.
Third, warehousing is tight too. Warehousing prices at 80.7 and capacity at 43.5 mean overflow storage near ports will cost more and be harder to find. This hits hardest if ocean schedules slip and boxes arrive in clusters. Book space ahead for January arrivals.
Fourth, after peak season, things could change. Once holiday stock is in, inventory building should slow. Respondents forecast inventory growth at 62.5, below October’s 66.9. That could take some heat out of spot truck rates in the first quarter. But contract rates agreed in the coming weeks will hold for months, whatever spot does.
Our call
This is our prediction. By the end of Q4 2026, US truckload carriers will hold fuel surcharges firm and open first-half 2027 contract renewals asking for at least 10% more on base linehaul rates, before fuel. The LMI pricing forecast of 90 and SONAR’s 13% average renewal both support that level.
We also expect the EIA weekly on-highway diesel average to stay above $6 a gallon through the end of November. It was $6.292 on 2 November. A 29-cent cushion is enough to cover more weekly dips like this one. One tanker of Russian diesel, blocked or not, will not close that gap.
Sources
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