Ocean Oct 20, 2026 · 8 min read

Super Typhoon Champi heads for the East China Sea

Champi’s weekend pass will cost Shanghai and Ningbo cargo a week, not a day. Super Typhoon Champi is packing 230 km/h winds and is due to pass east of Zhoushan on Sunday 25 October (ENGINE). Bunkering at two outer Zhoushan anchorages stopped on 20 October. Our view: forwarders should plan for a week of disruption, not one day. In August, after terminals halted for two days, 2.4m TEU of ships were waiting off China (The Loadstar), and Linerlytica said the backlog “would take a few weeks to clear”. Move cut-offs forward now. Our call: at least one major carrier will skip a Shanghai or Ningbo call in the week of 26 October.

Super Typhoon Champi will pass Zhoushan in a day. The backlog will last for weeks. Super Typhoon Champi has sustained winds of 230 km/h near its centre and is moving west-northwest at 21 km/h. That is according to ENGINE, a bunker-market news service, on Tuesday 20 October. Forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration put it about 360 km east of Taiwan on Friday 23 October. It should then enter the East China Sea on Saturday, turn northeast and pass east of Zhoushan on Sunday 25 October, with winds easing to about 90 km/h by then.
That track takes it close to the world’s busiest container coast. Shanghai, Ningbo-Zhoushan and Taiwan’s ports all sit on or near it.

What we think it means

This is our view. Champi may never hit the Chinese coast directly. That will not save October’s sailings. Forwarders should plan for a week of disruption at Shanghai and Ningbo, with knock-on effects into mid-November, not a one-day pause.
The reason is simple. Ports close early when a big storm approaches, and they reopen to a queue. Ships that waited out the weather all arrive together. Terminals then work through the pile while new ships keep arriving. One or two lost days at the quay can turn into one or two weeks of late ships.
We have seen this exact pattern this year, at these exact ports.

What is already happening

The storm has already disrupted shipping twice, before it reaches China.
First, the Mariana Islands. Champi passed south of Guam. On 20 October Port Technology International reported that the ports of Tinian and Rota remain closed while the US Coast Guard checks channels and navigation aids. Saipan reopened to commercial traffic and cargo at 08:00 on Monday 19 October, after the Coast Guard declared Modified Port Heavy Weather Condition WHISKEY there on Sunday evening. Guam was placed under the same condition at 14:00 on Monday. Capt. Jessica Worst, who commands US Coast Guard Forces Micronesia/Sector Guam, said her teams were working to reopen the ports “as soon as it is safe to do so”.
Second, fuel. On 20 October bunkering (refuelling ships at anchor) was suspended at Zhoushan’s outer Tiaozhoumen and Xiazhimen anchorages, ENGINE reported. A source blamed “rough weather brought by Typhoon Champi”. Bunkering carries on at the more sheltered Xiushandong and inner Mazhi anchorages. Suppliers in Zhoushan now advise lead times of about 11 days for VLSFO (very low sulphur fuel oil), LSMGO (low sulphur marine gasoil) and HSFO (high sulphur fuel oil). ENGINE expects bunkering at Zhoushan to be affected over the next few days, depending on how the storm moves.
That matters more than it sounds. Zhoushan is one of Asia’s main refuelling stops. If ships cannot fuel there, some will divert to refuel elsewhere or carry more fuel from their last port. Either choice adds time or cost to a schedule that is about to be squeezed anyway.
In Shanghai, the Maritime Safety Administration started a Level IV typhoon emergency response at 9am on 20 October, according to City News Service, a Shanghai-based news service. The city expects rain from Friday afternoon through Sunday, heaviest from Friday night into Saturday. Rain could peak at 30–40 mm an hour. Gusts are forecast at force 6–7, rising to force 8–9 along rivers and the coast. “Authorities warned that swells could arrive before the winds,” City News Service wrote. The MSA told ship operators to check engines, steering and communications and to choose shelter early.

The track is still uncertain

Forecasters do not agree on where Champi goes after Taiwan. That uncertainty is itself a problem for planners.
“Its track remains uncertain and forecasters have not ruled out a landfall in northern Taiwan,” City News Service wrote on 20 October. It added that a second landfall on the Fujian coast was also possible.
Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration said on 17 October that some models showed a more westerly path that could take the storm across the island, Focus Taiwan reported. At that point Champi had sustained winds of 162 km/h. Three days later it had 230 km/h.
Other models point the other way. On 15 October The Standard in Hong Kong reported that AI weather models all showed a sharp northward turn near eastern Taiwan. The Pangu model had the storm crossing Japan on 26 October. The Fuxi and Fengwu models had it passing near Tokyo on 25–26 October. The Hong Kong Observatory said Hong Kong was “less likely to be hit directly”.
So the plausible outcomes run from a landfall in northern Taiwan and Fujian to a sharp turn out to sea that only brushes Zhoushan. Port authorities will plan for the worse case. In practice that means precautionary closures at Shanghai and Ningbo-Zhoushan, and possibly in northern Taiwan, from Friday night or Saturday. That is our expectation, not an announcement. No closure of these ports had been reported as of 20 October.

What happened last time

Recent history is a good guide, and it is not reassuring.
In the five weeks to 11 August 2026, three storms hit China: Bavi, Noul and then Typhoon Dolphin. Terminal operations at Ningbo and Shanghai halted on a Friday and Saturday, The Loadstar reported on 11 August. Afterwards 2.4m TEU (twenty-foot equivalent units, the standard measure of container capacity) of containerships were waiting around Chinese ports. UK forwarder Beckchoice, citing its local agent, said “vessel waiting times at some Yangshan berths are currently reaching up to 12 days”. It warned of the risk of “vessel omissions, rolled cargo, and containers being bumped from scheduled sailings”. Analyst Linerlytica said it “would take a few weeks to clear the vessel backlog”. CH Robinson told customers to expect late ships and berthing, a pause in depot operations, and changes to cut-offs.
So two lost days in August meant waits of up to 12 days and a backlog lasting weeks.
The pattern goes back further. In September 2021 Typhoon Chanthu led to the suspension of operations at Shanghai’s Yangshan deep-water port, while Ningbo-Zhoushan terminal operators “slowed or suspended operations on 12 September evening”, Port Technology International reported. In September 2022, ahead of Typhoon Muifa, the Shanghai International Shipping Institute said the port would halt all operations on the Wednesday morning, gCaptain reported, citing Reuters. Nearly 7,400 commercial vessels sheltered in Zhejiang’s ports, including Zhoushan and Ningbo, according to state media.
Three different storms gave the same result each time. The ports shut early, ships piled up and schedules slipped for days afterwards.

What it means for forwarders and shippers

This is our reading of the next two weeks.
Cut-offs will move. Terminals usually bring the cut-off (the last time a box can be delivered for a sailing) forward ahead of a closure, or stop receiving export boxes altogether. Anything due at Shanghai or Ningbo terminals on Friday or Saturday should go in on Thursday if possible.
Rollovers will rise. When a ship arrives late and must make up time, carriers often load what they can and roll (move to a later sailing) the rest. Cargo booked on week 44 sailings, the week of 26 October, is most at risk. Tell shippers now rather than after the box misses the ship.
Port omissions are likely. A carrier running late may skip a call and pick the cargo up on the next loop. That would push some Shanghai or Ningbo bookings back a full week. Watch carrier advisories from Thursday.
Transhipment will suffer. Cargo moving through Shanghai or Ningbo onto feeders, or relaying in Taiwan, is exposed twice. A delay on the first leg can miss the connection on the second.
Fuel adds a hidden delay. With an 11-day lead time for bunkers at Zhoushan and the outer anchorages closed, some ships may refuel elsewhere. That can add hours or a day to a voyage that is already late.
Arrival promises need a buffer. For Asia–Europe and transpacific cargo leaving East China in the last week of October, add at least a week to quoted arrival dates. This matters most for retail goods aimed at November promotions.
Air will see some spillover. If ocean bookings roll, some urgent shippers will switch to air out of Shanghai and Taipei. We expect this to be modest, but it will tighten space on some flights in early November.

Our prediction

These are our calls, not forecasts from any agency.
First, Shanghai and Ningbo-Zhoushan container terminals will suspend at least part of their operations for 12 hours or more between Friday night 23 October and Sunday 25 October. That will happen even if Champi stays offshore.
Second, at least one major carrier will announce a skipped Shanghai or Ningbo call in the week of 26 October.
Third, waiting times at Yangshan will not be back to normal before mid-November. Forwarders who move cut-offs forward this week and reset delivery dates with shippers now will have far fewer awkward calls in November than those who wait for the storm to arrive.

Sources