Ocean Oct 20, 2026 · 7 min read

Boxship orderbook hits 16.2m teu after MSC’s 20-ship megamax order

Half a fleet on order: why 2027 is the year to keep contracts short. The container ship orderbook has reached a record 16.2m teu, or 46.5% of today’s fleet, Seatrade reported on 20 October. MSC ordered 20 ships of 24,000 teu and HMM ordered eight of 13,000 teu. We think this hands buyers the advantage in 2027. Braemar data shows 1.12m teu delivered since January and only 40,000 teu scrapped. Carriers expect the full Suez return by the end of Q1 2027, which frees about 1m teu more. Forwarders should avoid long fixed-rate deals. Our call: 2027 transpacific annual contracts, signed around May, will settle below 2026 levels.

Carriers have ordered nearly half a fleet. Forwarders should price 2027 like a glut is coming The global container ship orderbook has reached 16.2m teu. That is equal to 46.5% of the fleet now in service, and it is the highest ratio since 2009. The figures come from Linerlytica’s weekly market note and were reported by Seatrade Maritime and Splash247 on 20 October. A teu, or twenty-foot equivalent unit, is the standard measure of container capacity. One 40-foot box counts as two.
Two deals pushed the number to a new peak. MSC, already the world’s largest carrier, ordered 20 more ships of 24,000 teu each. HMM, South Korea’s main carrier, ordered eight ships of 13,000 teu. Seatrade counted 28 new ships of over 13,000 teu added to the orderbook in the latest round.
Our view is simple. The industry is building far more ships than trade growth needs. Old ships are not being scrapped. The Suez Canal route is reopening, which makes the existing fleet go further. Together, those three things point to a buyer’s market in 2027. Forwarders and shippers should plan and negotiate on that basis now, not wait for rates to fall first.

What was ordered

MSC’s order went to Hengli Heavy Industries in Dalian, China. Splash247 put the new capacity at about 480,000 teu. Linerlytica’s weekly note opened with the line: “MSC has added to its massive orderbook with a fresh order for 20 additional 24,000 teu ships at Hengli HI”. The order takes MSC’s count of ships above 20,000 teu at that yard to 62, according to Linerlytica.
Splash247 reported that no contract value, delivery dates or engine type have been disclosed. MSC and Hengli signed a strategic cooperation agreement in 2024. MSC first ordered ten 21,000 teu and ten 24,000 teu LNG dual-fuel ships there, then six of 22,000 teu last year.
The scale matters. Citing Alphaliner data from the end of September, Splash247 said MSC operates about 7.4m teu. That is 21.5% of global liner capacity, with 2.94m teu more on order. Its fleet plus orderbook has passed 10m teu.
HMM’s order is smaller but follows the same logic. It confirmed contracts worth about KRW1.92trn ($1.44bn) for eight 13,000 teu LNG dual-fuel ships at HD Hyundai, with deliveries starting in 2029, Splash247 reported. Six will be built at HD Hyundai Samho and two at HD Hyundai Heavy Industries. They will run on its Far East–India–Mediterranean service. HMM also bought four feeder ships through resale deals for regional work. Seatrade said HMM puts its total 2026 investment in fleet, logistics and technology at about KRW6trn, more than $4.5bn.

Supply is growing and almost nothing is leaving

The orderbook has grown fast. In late September, Linerlytica put it at about 15.6m teu, according to ShipUniverse. At the post-Covid peak in August 2023 it was only 7.6m teu. It has more than doubled in about three years.
Ships are already arriving. Braemar data cited by Seatrade shows 1.12m teu delivered since January. Only 40,000 teu has been demolished in the same period. Braemar also counted 4.1m teu of new orders between January and 1 October, before the MSC and HMM deals.
That low scrapping figure is the key point. In a normal downturn, owners sell old ships for scrap and the fleet shrinks a little. That is not happening. ShipUniverse put recycling at under 300,000 teu over five and a half years, against about 10m teu added since early 2021. Every new ship is net new supply.
BIMCO, the shipowners’ association, expects fleet capacity to grow 4.6% this year and 9% in 2027, gCaptain reported on 23 September. Its demand outlook for 2027 is much weaker. It forecasts growth of 0.5% to 2.5% if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed and 2.5% to 4.5% if normal traffic returns. Niels Rasmussen, BIMCO’s chief shipping analyst, said “accelerating fleet growth could weaken the supply/demand balance in 2027”.
Demand is not collapsing. Container Trades Statistics data cited by Seatrade showed volumes up 17.5% in August and 4.8% for the year to date. But demand growing at around 4% does not absorb a fleet growing at 9%.

Suez adds a second wave of capacity

The orderbook is a slow-moving problem. The Suez return is a faster one.
For most of the past three years, ships between Asia and Europe have sailed around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid attacks in the Red Sea. That longer route soaked up a large share of the fleet. In September, ShipUniverse reported that about 250 ships, or 3.5m teu, were still going around Africa, citing Linerlytica for the ship count. That was down from a peak of about 380 ships and 5.4m teu earlier this year.
Carriers now expect a full return from the Cape by the end of Q1 2027, Seatrade said, releasing about another 1m teu. Linerlytica has forecast a “full-scale return during the first quarter of 2027”, according to Intelligent Audit’s 19 October shipper brief. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have already moved four more Gemini Cooperation services back through the canal, gCaptain reported in September.
BIMCO’s numbers show how big this is. A gradual Suez return in 2027 could cut growth in demand for ships by about five percentage points, gCaptain reported. A full return could leave ship demand about 10% lower than if diversions continued. Shorter voyages mean each ship makes more round trips, so the same fleet carries more boxes.
The risk is the Red Sea itself. Intelligent Audit noted that insurers and logistics providers warn renewed attacks could reverse routing decisions. Seatrade also reported that the 2,800 teu GFS Pride sank in the Arabian Gulf after an attack. A setback would delay the capacity release, but it would not cancel the orderbook.

What happened last time

The last time the orderbook looked like this was the late 2000s. Carriers and owners were estimated to have spent about $100bn on new container ships between 2006 and 2008, PortNews reported in August 2009. By then the orderbook was 41.6% of the fleet, according to Clarkson. That is a lower ratio than today. Unemployed capacity had reached 1.34m teu, or 10.4% of the world fleet, and rates were plunging.
Clarkson noted then: “Nine consecutive months have now passed in which zero new box ship capacity has been placed on order”. Owners had also scrapped more than 275,000 teu of box ships in 2009 by the time of that report.
The difference this time is that carriers are still ordering, and still not scrapping. That suggests they expect to use size and cost to win share, rather than wait out a slump together. MSC’s 62 megamaxes at one yard are the clearest sign of that.

What it means for forwarders

The glut can feel far away while ships are still busy. ShipUniverse put it well in September: “Strong freight rates do not disprove the supply risk.” Linerlytica’s latest note says spot rates “appear to have peaked”.
Here is how we read the next six to twelve months:

Keep contracts short or indexed. A fixed 12-month rate signed at today’s levels could look expensive by mid-2027. Index-linked deals, which move with a published rate index, or six-month terms keep you able to reprice.

Expect more blank sailings. These are voyages a carrier cancels to take capacity out and hold prices up. With a 9% fleet increase coming, carriers will lean on them harder from Q1 2027.

Watch Asia–Europe first. It gains the most from Suez, because the voyage gets shortest. That is where we expect capacity, and rate pressure, to show up first.

Mind the giants. A carrier with more than 10m teu of fleet and orderbook needs volume to fill it. That should give large shippers and forwarders more room in tenders with MSC and its rivals.

Do not bank on service quality. When carriers cut sailings to hold rates, cargo gets rolled to the next ship. Build buffer into lead times.

Our prediction

Our call is that 2027 transpacific annual contracts, most of which are signed around May, will settle below 2026 levels. We expect Asia–North Europe contract rates for 2027 to fall further than transpacific ones, because that lane gains most from the Suez return.
We also expect ordering to continue despite the warnings. Our forecast is that the orderbook passes 17m teu by the end of March 2027. If it does, the oversupply argument gets stronger for 2028 too, and forwarders who keep their buying flexible will be in the best position.

Sources