Friday, October 23, 2026
The news that moves freight
Ocean Oct 23, 2026 · 7 min read

Iran’s seven-tanker claim, Trump’s denial and $112 Brent

Iran says it hit seven tankers in one night. The White House says it made them up. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said on 22 October that seven oil tankers were hit, four by its forces and three by mines. UK maritime authorities had logged two strikes in that window. Donald Trump called the claims “fake”. Brent still rose 3.2% to $112.27, according to CBS. Our view: the exact count matters less than the claim itself. Iran is saying ships on routes it rejects are targets, and it has threatened US bases. Insurers price that. We expect Brent to stay above $100 through mid-November and Gulf war-risk costs to rise.

Seven tankers or two: Iran’s claim is now a cost forwarders have to price

Iran says it hit seven oil tankers in one night. On 22 October Iranian state TV, citing the navy of the IRGC (Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps), said four tankers were struck by its forces while transferring oil from ship to ship in the Gulf. It said three more hit mines west of the Strait of Hormuz and caught fire. If true, CBS News noted, it “would be the largest number of vessels damaged in the Gulf in a single day since the start of the Iran war on Feb. 28.”

Nobody outside Tehran has confirmed it. Iran gave no ship names, flags, owners or casualty figures. UKMTO, the UK Navy’s maritime trade office that logs shipping incidents, had recorded two strikes in that window. Donald Trump called the claims fake.

Our view: for freight, the count is the wrong question. Iran is now saying out loud that whole routes and whole types of operation are targets. It is also threatening US bases. Insurers, carriers and airlines price that statement whether seven ships burned or two. The bill lands on Gulf cargo either way.

What Iran claimed, and what was confirmed

CBS News, carrying the Iranian statements on 22 October, quoted the IRGC as saying “All four ships were hit simultaneously and are burning.” It placed them in the “north-central part of the Persian Gulf.” The IRGC said the four had used a route Iran rejects. It said three others “suffered accidents and caught fire after striking mines west of the Strait of Hormuz.”

House of Saud, which compared the claim with UKMTO’s public warnings, found two confirmed incidents. The first was the Kuwait-flagged tanker Al Dasma, owned by Kuwait Oil Tanker Company and rated at 109,719 deadweight tonnes. It was struck by an unknown projectile at 01:45 UTC on 21 October, about 11 nautical miles west of Bukha, Oman. The fire was put out and all crew were reported safe. The second was the Liberia-flagged, Greek-owned tanker Soyia. It was hit at 18:30 UTC on 20 October, about 30 nautical miles south-east of Al Faw in Iraq. Its crew were safe and no structural damage was reported.

So there is a gap of five ships between what Iran says and what has been logged. It may close if more reports emerge, or Iran may be inflating its own success. Either way, we would not wait for the answer before pricing risk.

The wider tally is already heavy. The Daily Caller, citing the International Maritime Organization, reported 120 confirmed maritime incidents across the Middle East and 24 casualties. House of Saud, citing IMO data via Splash247, put it at 119 incidents and 24 seafarer deaths.

Trump’s answer, and why the market ignored it

Trump replied on Truth Social on 22 October. “Iran is doing everything they can to drive up the price of Oil prior to the U.S. Midterm Election,” he wrote, according to CBS. “They are even making up fake hits, mines, and everything else.”

Traders did not wait to find out who was right. CBS reported Brent crude up 3.2% to $112.27 a barrel on Thursday, and later up about 4% to $113. House of Saud put Wednesday’s settlement near $109.

Our view: the denial changed nothing because both readings are bad for shipping. If Iran is telling the truth, the Gulf has just had its worst night of the war. If it is lying, Iran is willing to claim hits it did not make in order to scare ships off certain routes. That is a pressure campaign aimed squarely at the people who book and insure cargo.

There is also context on where prices could go. On 7 September, with Brent around $97, Maritime Executive reported that Goldman Sachs and Rystad Energy both saw room for $120 oil. Goldman’s commodities research co-chair told Bloomberg TV there could be “meaningful upside to crude oil prices.” Rystad saw $120 as a worst case if the disruption lasted months with no US-Iran deal. Six weeks on, Brent is within about $8 of that level and there is still no deal.

The threat now reaches bases and airports

The IRGC paired its claim with a direct warning to Washington. “The US military must know that if this trend continues, the conflict will extend to its bases in the region,” the Guards said, as reported by Gulf News. CBS also reported the IRGC complaining that the US was “encouraging vessels to pass through an illegally mined passage”. That appears to refer to US-escorted traffic through the strait.

This is not only about ships. On the evening of 21 October, King Fahd International Airport in Dammam, Saudi Arabia, was attacked. Saudi civil aviation said two people were killed and eight injured. It said “airport operations have resumed and air traffic has returned to normal.” On 21 October, a diplomatic source told AFP that “All American staff and their families have been ordered to depart from the US embassy in Saudi Arabia.” Families of embassy staff in the UAE, Jordan, Qatar and Bahrain were also told to leave, Gulf News reported.

Riyadh’s King Khalid airport has only partly reopened after being shut on 10 October. Gulf News reported that “Major carriers, including Lufthansa and Air France, have canceled flights through mid-November.”

Our view: a forwarder can no longer treat the Gulf as an ocean problem with an air fallback. If the strait is too risky, the usual answer is to fly cargo in or truck it from Red Sea and Omani ports. That fallback is now under strain too. Belly capacity, meaning cargo space in the hold of passenger flights, shrinks every time a European airline cancels a route. Ground handling at a struck airport can slow even after flights resume.

What it means for forwarders and shippers

Fuel first. Ocean carriers charge a BAF (bunker adjustment factor, a fuel surcharge that tracks the price of ship fuel). Ship fuel moves with crude. With Brent above $110, expect BAF and air fuel surcharges to stay high or rise at the next review. Shippers on index-linked contracts will see it soonest.

War risk second. Carriers and insurers set war-risk surcharges by zone. Iran is now naming ship-to-ship transfers and the US-escorted route as targets. Strikes have been confirmed as far north as Al Faw. That gives underwriters a reason to widen the zone and raise the rate. Gulf News reported that “Iranian attacks on shipping and the threat of further escalation have increased freight rates”.

Transit and feeder delays third. Fewer ships are willing to cross. The Daily Caller, citing MarineTraffic, reported weekly Hormuz crossings falling from 203 to 120 between 12 and 18 October, a drop of about 41%. Cargo routed through Gulf of Oman and Red Sea hubs, such as Khor Fakkan, Sohar and Jeddah, then waits for feeder space (smaller ships that shuttle boxes from big hubs to smaller ports) or for trucks. Build extra days into quotes for Upper Gulf delivery, and say so in writing.

Contracts last. Check force majeure and war-risk clauses before you accept new Gulf bookings. Make sure surcharges can be passed through. Tell customers that a quote for Dammam, Kuwait or Umm Qasr is valid for days, not weeks.

Diplomacy is moving, but not fast enough to help Q4

There is a diplomatic track. Foreign ministers from Britain, France and Germany will meet counterparts from Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Egypt in Istanbul on Friday 23 October. “The seven countries will come together for the first time in the R4+E3 format, at Turkey’s initiative,” a Turkish foreign ministry source said, according to Gulf News. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan is expected to stress the need for “permanent freedom of navigation in the Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb Straits.” Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said on 21 October that “Iran is prepared to give diplomacy another chance if we see strong evidence of a sincere desire by US,” according to CBS.

Meanwhile the pressure on Iran keeps rising. CBS reported that the US blockade “has prevented $25 billion in crude oil exports by Iran, according to CENTCOM.” Our view: a squeezed Iran has every reason to keep raising the cost of Gulf shipping for everyone else, at least until the US midterm vote on 3 November. A first meeting in Istanbul, without Iran or the US at the table, will not reopen the strait.

Our call

We expect UKMTO’s weekly count to stay at 10 or more attacks in and around the strait in each week up to the 3 November US midterm vote. We expect Brent to stay above $100 a barrel through mid-November. We do not expect any major carrier to restore a regular scheduled container service through Hormuz into the Upper Gulf before 1 December 2026, even if talks restart straight after the midterms. And with strikes reaching as far as Al Faw, we expect at least one major carrier to widen or raise its Gulf war-risk surcharge to cover northern Gulf ports by the end of November.

Sources