Monday, November 2, 2026
The news that moves freight
Ocean Nov 2, 2026 · 7 min read

Trump says the US and Canada have “the concept of a deal”, with Keystone XL inside

A deal “concept” and a pipeline. Not one tariff line has changed. Donald Trump said on Sunday 1 November that the United States and Canada have “the concept of a deal”. Speaking to reporters in Iowa, he said the two countries were “very close”. He said “we have the concept of a deal that’s going to be great for our farmers”, and that “it’ll be fine for Canada too” (Canadian Press). He also said Canada would build the Keystone XL oil pipeline. “They’re going to pay for it,” he said (Reuters). He and Prime Minister Mark Carney spoke by phone on Saturday.

No tariff rate, product list or start date came with it.

Our view is simple. The politics have moved. The paperwork has not. Until a proclamation is signed or US Customs publishes a notice, every Canadian entry is filed and paid exactly as it was on Friday. Forwarders should not reprice, hold freight or tell customers relief is coming on the strength of a “concept”.

What changed this weekend

The real news is on the Canadian side. A week ago, Carney said Canada was not yet in a position to reach a deal with the Trump administration. On Wednesday he said Ottawa would only do a deal that served Canadians’ interests (Canadian Press, paraphrasing his remarks).

On Sunday his language was warmer. He said Saturday’s call “builds on recent constructive discussions on the outlines of a mutually beneficial trade deal”. Then: “Our teams will now be working in the coming weeks to deliver that outcome” (Reuters).

That is a leader saying a deal is the goal and naming a rough timeframe. It is still not a deal. Ottawa added nothing to it. A spokesperson for Dominic LeBlanc, the minister responsible for Canada-US trade, had no further comment. A spokesperson for Energy Minister Tim Hodgson declined to comment (Reuters).

Trump framed the deal around farmers and money. “We’ve been losing money for many years with Canada,” he said (Canadian Press). On the pipeline he said: “We’re going to give them the route, and it’s largely been determined but they’ll build the Keystone pipeline” (Canadian Press).

The timing matters. The US midterm elections are on Tuesday 3 November. The Canadian Press notes the trade dispute has become an issue for some candidates. A deal announced before polling day is useful to the White House whether or not the detail is ready.

At home, Carney is under pressure too. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre urged him to “get a great deal”. “He’s broken that promise so far,” Poilievre said (Canadian Press).

We have been here before

This is not the first time a deal has been declared. In August, Trump posted on Truth Social that the two countries “have a DEAL!” and promoted Keystone XL as a trade win (Canadian Press).

That same month, talks broke down, on 21 August (Wealth Professional, citing Bloomberg). The US then imposed a 50% tariff on about US$20bn of Canadian goods (Fox Business). Canada matched with counter-tariffs on a similar value of US goods (Wealth Professional). Reuters says the two countries have “slapped billions of dollars in tariffs on each other in recent months.”

On 24 August, Trump said tariffs on Canadian vehicles, auto parts and steel would rise to 50% from 1 January 2027 (Fox Business). That threat still stands. Separately, the US already charges tariffs of up to 50% on Canadian steel and 25% on autos under Section 232, a national-security trade law run by the Commerce Department (Wealth Professional, citing Reuters).

As recently as last week, the signals were mixed. Carney said Washington was “coming closer to our position”. He also said Canada has “very clear bottom lines, red lines”. Asked whether Trump would sign a deal, he said: “I don’t know that.” Canada’s chief negotiator, Janice Charette, said: “Pens are down, and the doors are open” (all via Wealth Professional).

So the pattern is a declared deal, then a breakdown, then higher tariffs. That is why we treat Sunday’s words as a signal of intent, not a change in what your customers owe.

What forwarders are actually filing against

The main cost on many Canadian goods is the Section 338 duty. Section 338 is a US trade-law power that lets the president add tariffs on a country’s goods. Here is what applies today, per the customs guidance site Zonos (updated 26 October):

  • An extra 50% of the goods’ value, on top of the normal duty rate.
  • It covers only listed Canadian-origin products, named by eight-digit HTS code. HTS is the Harmonized Tariff Schedule, the US product code list.
  • It applies to goods “entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption, at or after” 12:01am ET on 22 August 2026.
  • There is no grandfathering. Goods that left Canada before that date but were entered after it still pay.
  • USMCA (the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement) qualification does not exempt goods from it.
  • Since 15 September, goods on the alcohol and general lists pay Section 338 on top of Section 232 duties. Only the dairy list keeps the Section 232 exclusion.
  • There is no end date. The president can change, suspend or end it.

The list keeps moving. A CBP bulletin on 15 September added 122 classifications. A proclamation signed on 23 October, effective 30 October, removed 22 HTS codes and added 100 (Zonos). That change lifted the 50% on some farm and forestry products while adding dozens of new ones (Wealth Professional, citing Reuters and the Canadian Press).

The key point for brokers: the entry date sets the rate. Any deal will apply from a stated time, to goods entered after it. A press remark on a Sunday changes nothing at the border on Monday.

The pipeline is not freight yet

Keystone XL makes a good headline. It is a long way from cargo.

The original line would have carried 830,000 barrels of oil a day, from Alberta’s oil sands to Cushing, Oklahoma, and then to Gulf Coast refineries (Reuters). Joe Biden revoked its key US permit in 2021. Trump signed an order in April to approve a new pipeline that would reuse parts of the abandoned project (Canadian Press).

Canada already sends more than 90% of its crude oil production to the US (Reuters). A new line changes how that oil moves, not whether it moves.

Reuters says it is unclear how the project would be revived. There is already a rival plan. South Bow, the former crude pipeline business of TC Energy, has proposed Prairie Connector, a 550,000-barrel-a-day line from Alberta to Wyoming. It would use some Keystone XL pipe already in the ground on the Canadian side. South Bow will decide whether to go ahead in 2027 (Reuters).

For project cargo teams, that means no line pipe, pumps or heavy-lift moves tied to Keystone in the next few months. Watch for a named sponsor, a route filing and a final investment decision. None of those exist today.

What to do this month

Our advice for cross-border desks:

  • Keep classifying and paying on the current Section 338 list. Check every HTS code against the 30 October changes.
  • Tell customers that a “concept” is not a rate. Relief, if it comes, will start at a stated date and time and apply to goods entered after it.
  • Plan for the 1 January 2027 vehicle and steel threat. If you move autos, parts or steel, model costs at today’s Section 232 rates and at 50%.
  • Keep bonded warehouse options open. Under the Section 338 rule, duty is triggered when goods are withdrawn from warehouse for consumption. If relief is published, that timing could work in your customer’s favour. If it isn’t, it buys time to decide.
  • Watch for a signed proclamation, a Federal Register notice or a CBP message. Those are the documents that change what you file.

Shippers will ask whether to hold Canadian goods in December in the hope of a cut. Our view is no, unless a published notice with a start date exists. Holding stock has a cost every day, and “the coming weeks” has no end date.

There is one more risk. If a deal arrives, it may not be all-or-nothing. Steel and autos sit under Section 232. The 50% duty sits under Section 338. A deal could cut one and leave the other. Brokers should read any notice line by line before telling a customer their duty has gone.

Our call

We think a deal framework is now more likely than it was a week ago. Both leaders are using the same word. But we expect a legal change to come in pieces and to lag the headlines.

Our prediction: the 50% Section 338 duty is still in force on Canadian goods on 31 December 2026. We also predict the product list is amended at least once more before then, by a proclamation adding or removing named products, on top of the 30 October change.

Sources