Trade & Customs Oct 17, 2026 · 8 min read

Mexico asks the US to cap car tariffs at 15%

Mexico wants a 15% ceiling on US car tariffs. Nothing is signed. On 16 October, Mexico’s Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard told lawmakers Mexico wants no carmaker paying more than 15% in US tariffs, the rate South Korea gets (Expansión). Today it is 25% on cars and 50% on steel (Rio Times). Our view: plan around today’s rates. Ebrard expects relief within weeks or months, but there is no deal, no US order and no steel rate. The next round of trade-pact talks has no date. Our call: no signed US cut to Mexico’s car or steel tariffs before 31 December 2026.

Mexico wants a 15% cap on US car tariffs. The calendar says don’t count on it this year. Mexico has put a number on the table. On Friday 16 October, Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard told Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies that Mexico wants no carmaker to pay more than 15% in US tariffs. That is the rate the US gives South Korean cars, Expansión reported. The US now charges 25% on Mexican cars and 50% on Mexican steel and aluminium. Both duties sit under Section 232, a US law that lets the president impose tariffs on national-security grounds (Rio Times).
Ebrard also said Mexico would surely win a cut on both steel and cars within weeks or months.
Our view: treat this as a position, not a price. There is no signed deal, no US tariff order and no agreed steel rate. The next round of talks has no date. Forwarders and shippers moving goods north across the border should keep quoting and costing at today’s rates through the end of the year.

What Ebrard said

The main source is Expansión’s report of the session, published on 16 October. Its quotes are in Spanish. The English translations below are ours.
On the cap: “Lo que estamos planteando es que se alineen los aranceles, o sea, que nadie pague más del 15%.” In English: “What we are proposing is that the tariffs be aligned, that is, that nobody pays more than 15%.”
On timing: “En esas dos vamos a lograr seguramente que tengamos una reducción entre las próximas semanas o meses.” In English: “On those two [steel and vehicles], we will surely achieve a reduction in the coming weeks or months.”
On the state of talks: “No están interrumpidas. Lo primero que quiero que quede claro.” In English: “They are not interrupted. That is the first thing I want to be clear.”
Ebrard’s argument for a cap is about fairness with Asia. Expansión reports his point that Korea gets 15% without rules of origin. Rules of origin are the requirements a product must meet to count as made in a region. Ebrard said a gap between the two rates gives Korea an advantage. That, he said, “va a ir en contra de Estados Unidos, de las marcas americanas, y a nosotros también nos perjudica.” In English: “will go against the United States, against American brands, and it also hurts us.”
He also played down a report that the US side is the obstacle. The Wall Street Journal reported that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick resists significant cuts to the car and steel duties. The Rio Times cites that report as relayed by Mexican outlets. Ebrard called Lutnick “un buen amigo” (a good friend). He said that in their Zoom and phone calls Lutnick “nunca me ha dicho que él se oponga a que se reduzca la 232.” In English: “has never told me that he opposes reducing the 232.”

What is not agreed

The list of open points is longer than the list of agreed ones.
There is no signed agreement and no US order changing either rate, the Rio Times reports. Ebrard gave no date and no target for steel.
The mechanics of the car cap are unclear. Mexican cars already get a discount on the 25% duty. Importers subtract the value of US-made parts from each vehicle and pay the 25% only on the rest. The Rio Times explained this in August. Expansión says this model-by-model system already keeps the sector’s average payment “considerablemente inferior al 10%”. That means well under 10%. Mexico broke down 18,000 parts to build it, the same report says. What happens to that discount under a 15% cap? Reports differ, the Rio Times says. One reading keeps the discount and caps the top rate. Another drops the rate to 15% across the board. That difference decides how much paperwork brokers will still need. Nobody has published a text that settles it.
The calendar is open too. The fourth round of USMCA talks has no date. USMCA is the US-Mexico-Canada trade pact, known in Mexico as the T-MEC. The round must take place before the end of the year, Expansión reports. He said the goal for year-end is clarity on what will be reviewed each year, “para reducir la incertidumbre” (to reduce uncertainty). Mexico and Canada had sought a 16-year extension of the pact and did not get it, Expansión reports.

What happened last time

Deadlines in this negotiation have slipped before.
The first USMCA joint review took place on 1 July 2026. The US did not agree to renew the pact in its current form, the Rio Times reported in August. Mexico Business News reported on 27 July that the 1 July deadline had passed without resolution. It said the fourth round would be held in Washington in early September. As of 16 October, that round still had no date, according to Expansión.
Steel shows the same pattern. On 30 July, Mexico Business News reported that Mexico wanted the US to apply the 10% Section 232 steel rate it gives the UK, instead of 50%. Ebrard framed that as a central plank of Mexico’s strategy for the September round. Eleven weeks later, steel is still at 50% and no rate has been agreed.
The car file has history too. In May 2025, Ebrard announced a US decree that gave Mexican and Canadian vehicles a discount on the car tariff. N+ reported on 20 May 2025, citing Reuters, that cars assembled in Mexico would pay an average of 15%, down from 25%. Today Ebrard puts the average well under 10%. So the discount system has worked for Mexico. That helps explain why some Mexican coverage reads the new proposal as a ceiling on top of the discount, not a replacement for it.
The sticking points from July are also still live. Mexico Business News reported that Washington wanted vehicles to contain 50% US-made parts to qualify for preferential access, and that Mexico rejected this. Mexico has also treated changes to Section 232 as a condition for progress on other issues, the same report said.

Where the money is: steel, not finished cars

For freight people, the headline number is less important than it looks.
On cars, the average duty already paid is well under 10%, per Expansión. A 15% cap mainly protects the vehicles at the top of the range, those with little US content. That matters to carmakers. It changes little for the average truckload of finished vehicles heading to Laredo.
Steel is different. The 50% duty applies to steel and aluminium and to finished goods made from them (Rio Times). The August Rio Times report described tiered metals tariffs: 50% on articles made almost entirely of steel or aluminium, and 25% on derivative articles such as most auto parts. Mexico Business News reported that Mexico’s steel exports to the US fell 36.6% in 2025. It said Mexican steel capacity use dropped to 55%. Ebrard has warned that the duties threaten up to 350,000 jobs in the car supply chain, the same outlet reported.
Most Mexico-US trade is not affected at all. Ebrard told lawmakers that about 80% of Mexico’s trade with the US enters duty-free, Expansión reported. He put the average effective tariff on Mexican exports at about 3% to 3.2%. A day earlier, Diario de Yucatán reported him putting Mexico’s effective rate at “poco menos del tres por ciento” (just under 3%), against 22% for China.

What forwarders should do now

Keep two numbers in every Mexico-to-US quote: 25% on non-US content in cars and 50% on steel and aluminium content. Do not build a 15% cap into landed-cost models until a US order is published.
Keep the US-content file complete. The car discount depends on documenting US-made parts model by model. That will not change until a text says otherwise. If the eventual deal keeps the discount, the paperwork stays. If it scraps it for a flat 15%, the paperwork could ease for some models. Either way, brokers need to know which version wins before shippers change their filings.
Watch steel-heavy freight. Auto parts, frames, appliances and fabricated metal moving north by truck and rail carry the 50% or 25% metals duties. Any steel deal would change those costs far more than a car cap would. That is where a rate change would first show up in cross-border volumes.
Watch the calendar, not the quotes. The firm signals are a date for the fourth round and, after that, a published US order. Ebrard’s “weeks or months” is a forecast from one side of the table.

Our call

We expect no signed US order cutting Section 232 tariffs on Mexican cars or steel before 31 December 2026. Our reasons: the fourth round has no date, Lutnick is reported to resist deep cuts, and the September steel goal came and went.
If anything moves first, we think it will be the car cap, not steel. Matching Korea’s 15% is an easy case to argue in Washington. The discount system means it would cost the US little. A steel cut from 50% is a bigger ask, and the US has not moved on it since Mexico made it a central goal in July.
If we are wrong and a car order lands before the year ends, the first test is simple. Does it keep the US-content discount? The answer will tell brokers whether their documentation work grows, shrinks or stays the same in 2027.

Sources