Tuesday, October 20, 2026
The news that moves freight
Trucking & Rail Oct 12, 2026 · 8 min read

US diesel eases from its record as J.B. Hunt prepares to report

Diesel is off its peak, but US trucking still costs about 40 cents a mile more in fuel than last year. US diesel averaged $6.199 a gallon in the week of 5 October. That is 18.3 cents lower than the week before, but $2.49 above a year ago (EIA). Our view: this is a breather, not relief. Diesel set a record of $6.529 on 21 September. DAT says van spot rates rose to $3.13 a mile at quarter-end. J.B. Hunt has already warned that fuel and driver costs hit its third quarter. It reports on Thursday. Our call: diesel stays above $5.50 on EIA’s weekly series through the end of 2026.

Diesel’s dip won’t save shippers. J.B. Hunt’s results on Thursday will show who pays for the squeeze
US on-highway diesel averaged $6.199 a gallon in the week of 5 October, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) says. That is 18.3 cents lower than the week before, and the second weekly fall in a row. It is still $2.488 a gallon above the same week last year. On the West Coast diesel was $7.229. In California it was $8.082, which is $3.111 above a year ago. EIA’s next weekly figure is due on Wednesday 14 October. The day after that, J.B. Hunt, the US trucking and intermodal group, reports its third-quarter results.
Our view is simple. Shippers and forwarders should not read two weeks of falling diesel as the start of cheaper US inland freight. Fuel is easing from a record, but it is still far above last year. The bigger costs, drivers and contract repricing, have not yet worked through. Thursday’s results will show how much of the squeeze carriers have taken so far, and how much they plan to pass on.

How high diesel went, and why

Diesel’s run this year has broken records more than once. SupplyChain247 reported on 4 September that the US average had reached $5.820 a gallon, just above the previous record of $5.819 set on 17 June 2022 (GasBuddy figures). The article blamed renewed fighting between the United States and Iran, refinery problems elsewhere and low stocks. It said US stockpiles of diesel and heating oil were at their lowest August level since 1982.
On 15 September, OilPrice.com’s Robert Rapier said EIA’s weekly diesel figure of $5.967 on 7 September had beaten the old weekly record of $5.810 from June 2022. He wrote that “the more acute shortage is in distillates”, the group of fuels that includes diesel. He also cited Reuters reporting that the US diesel crack spread, the margin refiners earn turning crude into diesel, had topped $100 a barrel for the first time in August. And he said the problem was not idle US refineries: “This is not primarily a story of U.S. refiners failing to run.”
Then came the peak. EIA’s figure for 21 September was $6.529. AJOT, reporting DAT’s weekly data, called it the “highest weekly reading in its records going back to 2007.” Since then the US average has fallen to $6.382 and then $6.199. That is a drop of 33 cents in two weeks. It still leaves diesel above $6.

What fuel is doing to truck rates

Most US truck contracts carry a fuel surcharge. That is an extra charge per mile that rises and falls with the weekly government diesel price. So when EIA’s number moves, the bills move too.
DAT’s data shows how much. Writing about the 24.4-cent rise to the 21 September peak, Croke said: “Diesel rose 24.4 cents a gallon, adding about 4 cents a mile to dry van and reefer surcharges and 5 cents to flatbed.” That implies a truck doing about 6 miles a gallon. Using that same ratio, our arithmetic says the latest 18.3-cent fall takes about 3 cents a mile off surcharges. The $2.488 gap with last year still adds about 41 cents a mile. On a 1,000-mile run, that is roughly $410 more in fuel alone than a year ago.
Spot rates are firm as well. A spot rate is the one-off price for a single load, as opposed to a contract rate agreed for months. For the week of 27 September to 3 October, DAT’s average van spot rate, fuel included, rose 11 cents to $3.13 a mile. Reefer (refrigerated) rose 7 cents to $3.69. Flatbed rose 11 cents to $3.71.
DAT tracks the load-to-truck ratio, the number of loads posted on its board for each truck posted. A higher number means a tighter market. The van ratio rose to 13.7 from 11.1, which Croke said was “nearly double Week 40 of last year.” Reefer rose to 21.7 and flatbed to 44.1.
Croke did not oversell it. “The quarter closed with a push,” he wrote. “Overflow moved to the spot market as contract capacity filled.” His verdict: “The move looks like a quarter-end push rather than a lasting demand shift.”
Even so, the base is high. Croke wrote: “Van linehaul is up 34% year over year, reefer 33%, and flatbed 28%.” Linehaul is the rate before fuel. DAT’s 35-day RateCast forecast has van linehaul holding near $2.24 a mile in early November. That is about where it is now ($2.25). In other words, DAT does not expect much of a fall either.

What J.B. Hunt has already told us

J.B. Hunt reports after the market closes on Thursday 15 October. According to Talk Business & Politics on 9 October, a consensus of 18 analysts expects earnings per share of $1.81, up from $1.76 a year earlier. They expect revenue of $3.59 billion, up from $3.05 billion.
The company has already lowered expectations once. At a Morgan Stanley conference on the evening of 15 September, FreightWaves reported, it said third-quarter earnings per share would fall 5% to 10% from the second quarter. Talk Business & Politics reported that it cited $25 million in driver-related costs and more than $10 million from the rapid rise in fuel prices. Stephens analysts said that implied $1.72 to $1.81 a share. J.B. Hunt’s shares fell 13.3% to $236.73 on 16 September. They were trading at $226.36 on 8 October.
Notice that the current consensus of $1.81 sits at the top of that range. The market is expecting the company to hit the better end of its own warning.
FreightWaves reported that management called the cost inflation “more cyclical than structural.” That means it is tied to the current market cycle rather than permanent. On the fuel point, FreightWaves noted: “Fuel surcharges operate on a one-week lag.” So when diesel rises fast, carriers pay the higher price before the surcharge catches up. When diesel falls, the gap works in their favour. The past two weeks have started that reversal.
The more important line for shippers concerns intermodal, meaning containers moved long distance by rail with a truck at each end. FreightWaves wrote: “Intermodal contract pricing typically lags truckload pricing by two quarters.” It also cited SONAR data showing intermodal “currently 32% cheaper than truck.” Stephens analysts, quoted by Talk Business & Politics on 9 October, see a spread of more than 30% between truckload and intermodal contract prices. They said it speeds the shift of truckload freight to intermodal and sets J.B. Hunt up for growth over the next 12 to 18 months. They also said the “challenging driver environment results in a stronger (dedicated) pipeline”. Dedicated means trucks and drivers assigned full-time to one customer.
J.B. Hunt’s intermodal bid season starts in October. FreightWaves said “roughly 10% of its contracts” renew in the fourth quarter. Management sees “a big opportunity to close that gap,” but said it will not push “out-of-cycle” rate hikes to do it. FreightWaves described tight truck capacity as “not letting up at all, if anything it’s probably getting worse.”

What it means for forwarders and shippers

Put those pieces together and the direction is clear, in our view.
First, drayage and inland quotes will stay high. Drayage is the short truck move between a port or rail ramp and a warehouse. It is paid for with diesel and drivers, the two costs that are rising fastest. A small weekly dip in fuel will not change that.
Second, intermodal will get more expensive at renewal. A gap of more than 30% between rail and truck contract prices is an invitation to raise rail rates. J.B. Hunt has said as much. Shippers renewing intermodal contracts this quarter, or in early 2027, should expect increases. They should not expect a rollover.
Third, the rail discount still makes intermodal worth a look. Even after an increase, a 30%-plus discount leaves room. Forwarders handling US imports through the West Coast should price rail-plus-dray options alongside all-truck moves. That matters most on long inland legs, where fuel makes up a bigger share of the bill.
Fourth, check how your fuel surcharges are written. Many US contracts reset each week off the EIA number. With EIA’s next print on Wednesday rather than Monday, the surcharge table may move a day later than usual. On California lanes, where diesel is above $8, the surcharge is a much larger share of the total. It is worth knowing exactly which index and which week each carrier uses.
Fifth, treat the late-September spot jump with care. DAT itself called it a quarter-end push. Don’t lock in rates on the back of one week’s spike. Equally, don’t expect spot to fall far. DAT’s own forecast is roughly flat into November.

Our calls

We expect US diesel to stay above $5.50 a gallon on EIA’s weekly series through the end of 2026. The causes cited by SupplyChain247 and OilPrice.com, namely the Iran conflict, low distillate stocks and disrupted Russian and Middle Eastern supply, have not gone away. Two weeks of decline from a record do not change that.
We expect J.B. Hunt to report third-quarter earnings per share within the $1.72 to $1.81 range implied by its September warning. We also expect it to say that intermodal contract renewals are coming in higher.
And we expect DAT’s van linehaul rate to stay within 10 cents of $2.24 a mile through mid-November, in line with its RateCast. Forwarders should plan for US inland costs that stay firm, not for relief.

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