Evergreen rejoins Suez as Yemen’s front line moves toward Aden
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Evergreen rejoins Suez as the fighting in Yemen moves toward Aden
Houthi forces may have captured a district some 40 miles northwest of Aden, The Maritime Executive reported on 3 November, citing Reuters. The report is not confirmed. It comes as Evergreen resumes Suez Canal transits this week. Linerlytica, the container market analyst, said on 2 November that this makes it the last OCEAN Alliance partner to return. Yang Ming follows from December. Linerlytica now expects the three main carrier alliances and MSC to be fully back on the Suez route by the first quarter of 2027. That would leave Zim as the only major carrier still sailing round Africa’s Cape of Good Hope.
In the same report, Linerlytica said the 1 November rate hikes are “failing to gain traction”.
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Those two facts belong together. In our view, the Suez return is now mainly a capacity story. Every loop that switches from the Cape back to the canal needs fewer ships to run the same weekly schedule. The freed ships do not go away. They go looking for cargo, and that pushes rates down. The one thing that could reverse this is on land in Yemen, where the front line has moved in recent days.
Who is coming back, and when
Linerlytica’s Week 44 report says Evergreen is “resuming their Suez transits starting from this week”. Separately, on 31 October, it reported that Evergreen will start a China–Red Sea service, called OGRD, from 12 November. These will be its “first ships to the Red Sea since January 2024”. The loop calls at Qingdao, Shanghai, Ningbo, Shekou, Singapore, Jeddah, Sokhna, Aqaba and Port Klang. It starts with four ships of 7,000–9,000 TEU sailing every two weeks. (TEU means twenty-foot equivalent unit, the standard measure of box capacity.) The first sailing is the 7,024 TEU Ever Superb from Qingdao on 12 November.
The Premier Alliance is moving too. Linerlytica says its Asia Mediterranean 1 (MD1) service “will resume Suez transits from December 2026”. It will add a call at Sokhna, at the southern end of the canal, for Asia–Red Sea cargo. The lead ship is the 11,714 TEU YM Trust, from Ningbo on 13 November.
This is the latest stage of a return that has been building all year. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, the two Gemini Cooperation partners, began with their India–Mediterranean service in February. Seatrade Maritime reported that the 16,600 TEU Albert Maersk would take it back through Suez from Salalah on 12 February. At the time Maersk said: “All transits will be secured by naval assistance,” the Indian Transport & Logistics News reported. MSC said on 24 August it would “partially restore Suez Canal transits on a limited number of its East–West services”. In mid-September, Maersk said four more services would switch from the Cape, taking the number of Gemini services on the Suez route to six, Marine Insight reported.
Why the rate hikes are not sticking
A GRI (general rate increase) only works if carriers can fill their ships at the higher price. Linerlytica says freight rates “are starting to come under pressure”, and that “further rate softness is expected in the coming weeks”. Its report gives no index level or lane rate for the week, so we cannot put a number on the slide yet.
The bigger number is the orderbook. That is the total of new ships ordered but not yet delivered. Linerlytica says “a record breaking 6.4m TEU of new ships have been ordered in the first 10 months of 2026 alone”. Orders have topped 5m TEU for three years running. The orderbook now stands at about 16.6m TEU. That is 47.8% of the fleet already at sea. In other words, nearly half as much capacity again is on its way. Chinese yards took 89% of 2026 orders and hold 82% of the orderbook. South Korea’s share has slipped to 15%.
Analysts warned about this at the start of the year. In January, Drewry’s Philip Damas said: “The return to the Suez Canal is one of this year’s key swing factors for capacity, freight rates, and transit times,” gCaptain reported. Drewry added that “effective shipping capacity will be reintroduced to the market gradually rather than all at once”. That is what is happening. Each carrier returns loop by loop, and each step releases a few more ships.
There is one exception. Linerlytica says the Red Sea and Arabian Sea trades are still drawing new capacity. MSC is putting 24,000 TEU ships into Khor Fakkan, in the UAE, on a new Far East–Middle East service, despite severe berthing delays there. Evergreen’s and the Premier Alliance’s new Red Sea calls fit the same pattern. Carriers see cargo in the Gulf and Red Sea ports they could not serve well while they were going round the Cape.
The risk moving toward Aden
The case for staying on Suez rests on the Bab el-Mandeb, the narrow strait at the southern end of the Red Sea, staying quiet. The Maritime Executive reported on 3 November that the fighting in Yemen, largely stuck for weeks, has shifted.
Some of the news is good for shipping. Forces of the Internationally Recognized Government (IRG), Yemen’s official government, retook the Ras Menhali peninsula. It overlooks the Bab el-Mandeb at its narrowest point. The IRG probably also retook Perim Island, in the strait itself. It has not retaken the coastal towns of Dhubab or Mocha.
The worrying part is further east. “Reuters is reporting that the Houthis have captured the entire Al Maqatirah district, some 40 miles northwest of Aden,” the Maritime Executive wrote. The report is not confirmed, and the Houthi gains are not consolidated. The IRG is expected to counterattack. But if the Houthis hold the district, they would threaten Aden. They could also outflank IRG positions along the Gulf of Aden coast and at Ras Menhali.
That matters for every ship using the Maritime Security Transit Corridor, the recommended lane that runs from the southern Red Sea through the Gulf of Aden. The Maritime Executive says: “Full-scale Houthi capture of this coastline would present a major increase in the threat posed to merchant shipping”. The article does not report any new attack on a merchant ship.
What happened last time
Evergreen has done this before. In late December 2023, Egypt Independent reported, citing Bloomberg, that Evergreen had notified the Suez Canal that it would resume Red Sea navigation “in the coming days”. By Linerlytica’s account, January 2024 was the last time Evergreen sent ships into the Red Sea, until now. Hapag-Lloyd’s last Red Sea passage was also in early 2024, according to Indian Transport & Logistics News.
The lesson is that a return announced in good faith can be reversed in weeks. In February, Indian Transport & Logistics News noted there had been no confirmed Houthi attacks on ships in over six months. The Maritime Executive’s latest report does not describe any new attack at sea either. What has changed is the war on land. A carrier’s routing decision follows its insurers and security advisers. One incident would be enough to change it.
What this means for forwarders
First, rates. The failed 1 November hikes give shippers a reason to resist the mid-November and 1 December FAK (freight all kinds) increases that carriers usually file. Ask for the evidence that a hike is sticking before you pass it on.
Second, contracts. Talks for 2027 annual contracts are starting with record capacity on order and more ships freed by each Suez return. That is a buyer’s market. But build in a clause that says what happens to rates and transit times if a loop goes back round the Cape.
Third, transit times. A Suez routing cuts days off Asia–Europe and India–Europe voyages. Customers will start to plan around the shorter times. Do not promise them as fixed until each loop has run a few rotations on the new route.
Fourth, the Red Sea itself. New direct calls at Jeddah, Sokhna and Aqaba open options for Saudi, Egyptian and Jordanian cargo that had been moving through transhipment hubs. Watch for space and rate offers on those lanes as carriers try to fill the new loops.
Our call
We think the Suez return holds. Unless a merchant ship is attacked in the Red Sea or the Gulf of Aden, Gemini’s ME1 India–North Europe loop will still be routed via Suez on 31 January 2027. Over the same period, we expect India–North Europe spot rates to fall below their early-November level, as ships freed by this and earlier returns look for cargo. The Houthi push toward Aden is a warning, not an attack, so it does not change that call yet. If a merchant ship is hit before then, expect ME1 to be among the first loops sent back round the Cape.
Sources
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