Saturday, October 24, 2026
The news that moves freight
Air Oct 24, 2026 · 7 min read

Cathay tonnage up 14% on 5% more capacity as TAC index climbs again

Cathay’s planes are filling faster than it can add them. Cathay Cargo carried more than 150,000 tonnes in September, up 14.2% on a year earlier. Its capacity rose only 5.3% (Air Cargo News). We think this is the airline side of the air rate rise. Demand is outrunning space. The TAC Index global rate rose 4.7% in the week to 19 October and is up 26.4% on a year. TAC says jet fuel, up 113.7%, puts “a hard floor under rates”. Forwarders should not price on a post-peak drop. Our call: WorldACD’s global spot rate stays at or above $3.55/kg every week through mid-November.

Cathay is carrying 14% more on 5% more space. That is what pricing power looks like.

Cathay Cargo carried more than 150,000 tonnes in September 2026. That is 14.2% more than in September 2025. Over the same period, its capacity grew just 5.3%. Air Cargo News reported the figures on 22 October.

Capacity here means AFTKs, or available freight tonne-kilometres. It is the amount of cargo space an airline flies, multiplied by the distance flown. When tonnage grows faster than AFTKs, planes leave fuller.

Our view is simple. This is the airline side of the air rate rise. Demand out of Asia is growing more than twice as fast as one of its largest freighter operators can add space. When that happens, the airline sets the price, not the forwarder. The rate rises seen since Golden Week are peak season arriving on time. They are not a short bounce after China’s October holiday.

What Cathay reported

The September numbers, as reported by Air Cargo News:

  • Tonnage: more than 150,000 tonnes, up 14.2% year on year.
  • Capacity (AFTKs): up 5.3% year on year.
  • Cargo load factor: 58.9%, which the outlet reported as “up by 1.8%” on September 2025. The load factor is the share of available space actually used.
  • January to September: 1.3 million tonnes, up 8.9%, on capacity up 3.3%.

The gap is wider in September than across the year. Year to date, tonnage ran about 5.6 points ahead of capacity. In September the gap was 8.9 points. Demand is not just strong. It is getting stronger into the peak.

Lau, a Cathay executive quoted by Air Cargo News, said: “We continued to see year-on-year tonnage growth in September”. Lau said demand had stayed resilient from the Chinese Mainland and Southeast Asia. Cathay Priority, its time-critical product, was helped by urgent Southeast Asian shipments. Semiconductor flows supported Cathay Expert, its specialist handling product.

On the outlook, Lau said: “we expect demand to strengthen further as we approach the traditional year-end air cargo peak season”. The airline also flagged “elevated” jet fuel prices pushing up its costs.

Cathay is acting on that view. Earlier in October it added transpacific freighter capacity from Hong Kong to Miami, Chicago, Los Angeles and Mexico. The aim is to carry more technology shipments through the peak. In September, Jonathan Ng had said such capacity would be added for semiconductor and data-centre equipment, without naming destinations.

The Hong Kong picture

Hong Kong International Airport’s own September figures fill in the story. STAT Times reported on 21 October that the airport handled 433,000 tonnes in the month, up 6.3% from 407,000 tonnes a year earlier.

The split matters:

  • Transshipment, cargo landing in Hong Kong and flying straight on, was up 26.9%.
  • Inbound (unloaded) cargo rose 14.6% to 126,000 tonnes.
  • Outbound (loaded) cargo rose only 3.2% to 306,000 tonnes.
  • Cargo flights rose 3.9% to 6,515.

Two things stand out. First, Cathay’s tonnage grew more than twice as fast as the airport as a whole. Second, the growth at Hong Kong is coming through transshipment, not local exports. That fits what Cathay said about Mainland China and Southeast Asia. Hong Kong is working as a hub, pulling cargo in from the region and sending it on. For forwarders, the hub carrier controls that space.

The longer view shows how sharp September was. Over the first three quarters of 2026, the airport handled 3.78 million tonnes, up just 3.1%, STAT Times said. Over the past 12 months it handled 5.18 million tonnes, up 3.3%. September’s 6.3% is about double that pace. Cathay’s 14.2% is more than four times it. Our reading: the demand is concentrated in exactly the flows Cathay serves, regional cargo routed through Hong Kong onto long-haul freighters. That is why the airline, not the airport, is the better gauge of how tight peak space will get.

The rate indices agree

A second, independent signal came the same day. The Baltic Air Freight Index, calculated by price reporting agency TAC Index, rose 4.7% in the seven days to 19 October. It is 26.4% higher than a year ago, Air Cargo News reported. It is also above the peaks of the last two peak seasons.

China–US lanes had the biggest weekly gains. Spot rates from Hong Kong and Shanghai also rose. Europe was softer on the week. Outbound Frankfurt fell 6.6% on the week but is up 33.7% on the year. Outbound London Heathrow fell 2.3% on the week and is up 35.2% on the year. Mexico–Europe had a large weekly gain.

The week before, the index dropped 2.1%. TAC said that dip “was not unusual for the Golden Week holiday period in China when factories often shut down and volumes decrease”. The market bounced straight back.

Fuel is the other force. According to IATA’s Jet Fuel Price Monitor, as cited by TAC, jet fuel was up 113.7% year on year as of 16 October. TAC said this will “put a hard floor under rates at which airlines will carry cargo.” TAC also said rates started this peak from already high levels, because of the Middle East conflict and the Russia–Ukraine war.

WorldACD, a third data provider, showed the base the market built from. In week 41 (5 to 11 October), its global spot rate held at $3.55/kg, flat on the week, STAT Times reported. Asia Pacific spot slipped 3% to $4.83/kg. Global tonnage fell 1% for a third straight week, as Golden Week bit. Even then, spot rates were 34% higher than a year earlier, and full-market rates (spot and contract) were 29% higher. STAT Times put jet fuel up 111% on the year, citing IATA and Platts data.

What happened last year

Last year gives a guide to what comes next. In week 42 of 2025 (13 to 19 October), WorldACD reported that global tonnage rebounded 6% on the week. Tonnage from Asia Pacific origins jumped 14%, after falling 9% the week before. Asia Pacific to US tonnage rose 17%, with Hong Kong up 22% and China up 24%. China to US spot rates rose 19% in that week, to $4.90/kg, Asian Aviation reported.

WorldACD said then that “Average worldwide rates were also restored to their level immediately prior to the holiday season”. In other words, the post-holiday rebound came fast and came in one week.

The difference this year is the starting level. In week 42 of 2025, WorldACD’s global spot rate was $2.66/kg. In week 41 of 2026, during the holiday lull, it was already $3.55/kg. The rebound is starting from a much higher floor, and fuel costs have more than doubled. Our reading: the same seasonal lift on top of a fuel-driven base means peak rates this year will sit well above last year’s.

What forwarders should do now

Our view on the practical side:

  • Expect a tight Q4 out of Hong Kong and South China. Cathay is adding transpacific freighters, but its own numbers show demand growing faster than its space.
  • Expect airlines to hold firm in BSA talks. A BSA, or block space agreement, is a deal to buy a fixed amount of space on set flights. With load factors rising and the peak ahead, carriers have little reason to discount.
  • Book transpacific tech and semiconductor freight early. These are the flows Cathay named, and the lanes where it added freighters. They will fill first.
  • Do not quote November and December on an expected fall in rates. Fuel alone is up more than 110% on the year. That cost is not going away in the next two months.
  • Watch Europe as the relative bargain. Frankfurt and Heathrow outbound softened on the week. Shippers with flexible routing may find better value there than on China–US.
  • Watch the Gulf. Gulf capacity fell 4% in week 41 and was 20% below late-February levels, WorldACD said. Any new disruption there will hit Middle East and South Asia lanes first.

Our call

Our prediction: WorldACD’s global spot rate will stay at or above $3.55/kg in every week through mid-November. Asia Pacific spot will be back above $4.83/kg by week 44, the week starting 26 October, as factories return to full output after the holidays. If the Gulf sees fresh disruption from the Saudi–Houthi conflict, we expect Middle East and South Asia rates to rise first, within two to three weeks of any incident. And we expect year-on-year spot rate growth to stay above 25% through the end of Q4, driven mainly by fuel.

Cathay’s September numbers and the TAC reading both point the same way. We see nothing in them that weakens that call.

Sources