Sunday, November 8, 2026
The news that moves freight
Ocean Nov 8, 2026 · 7 min read

Near-record box volumes and a 62% price jump give carriers the stronger hand for 2027

Near-record box volumes and a 62% price jump give carriers the stronger hand for 2027

Ships loaded 17.35m TEU of containers worldwide in September 2026. That is 8% more than a year earlier, according to Container Trade Statistics (CTS) data reported by FreightWaves on Friday 6 November. A TEU is a twenty-foot equivalent unit, the standard way to count boxes. CTS also publishes a Global Price Index of container freight prices. In September that index rose to 123, up 5.1% on August and 62% on September 2025.

Our view is simple. The 2027 contract season is starting with a softer spot market and a strong set of underlying numbers. The spot market is the weekly cash price for a single shipment. Spot quotes are drifting down. But volumes are close to record and the CTS price index was still rising in September. That gives carriers the stronger hand at the table. Shippers expecting large cuts on annual contracts, as opposed to spot, should lower their hopes.

What the September numbers say

FreightWaves reported the CTS data in plain terms: “Global container volumes reached 17.35 million TEUs in September 2026, up 8% from a year earlier, as trade remained resilient despite mounting disruption and rising freight prices.”

There was a small step back. “Monthly liftings fell 1.4% from August,” the report said. Liftings are boxes loaded onto ships. But August was the highest month in the CTS database. A month later, volume was still only slightly below that peak.

The rest of the picture is just as firm: - Year-to-date volumes were 5% above 2025, according to the CTS figures. - Third-quarter volume was 52.2m TEU, up 2.4% on the second quarter. - FreightWaves reported that every region imported more in the third quarter than a year earlier. - North American imports rose 9% year on year, mainly from Asia and Europe. That is faster than the 7% growth in the second quarter.

Our own arithmetic from the CTS percentages puts September 2025 at roughly 16.1m TEU. So this September moved about 1.3m more TEU than the same month last year.

None of this happened in calm water. FreightWaves wrote that “The gains came as the industry continued to face geopolitical disruption, capacity constraints and higher operating costs.” It listed “The ongoing Persian Gulf crisis, constraints surrounding the Panama Canal and pressure on shipping capacity” among the pressures. CTS added its own warning, as reported by FreightWaves: “Port congestion and high terminal utilization also threatened to limit the industry’s ability to clear backlogs and keep cargo moving efficiently”.

Why the price index matters more than the spot screens

The CTS index is a different measure from the weekly spot screens most forwarders watch. Lately it has moved differently too.

The trend has been steep. FreightWaves reported on 8 October that the index was 117 in August. That was “its highest reading since July 2024,” and the index was “approximately 50% above its January level and 44% higher than in August 2025.” CTS said the rise “reflected pricing pressures that had developed since late February.” September added another six points.

Part of the 62% jump comes from a weak base. Working back from the published percentages, the index stood at about 81 in August 2025 and about 76 in September 2025. So last September was a soft month, and the year-on-year gain looks bigger because of that. Even so, a six-point rise from August to September is a real move, not an accident of comparison.

Compare that with the spot screens. Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI), a weekly spot benchmark, “decreased 1% to $4,389 per 40ft container this week” on 5 November. Shanghai–Los Angeles was flat at $7,539 per 40ft and Shanghai–Rotterdam fell 2% to $3,615. Drewry said it “projects a decline in rates next week” on the transpacific and expects Asia–Europe “to remain stable next week.”

So spot is easing at the edges. It is not falling off a cliff. And the broader price measure was still climbing a month ago.

What the analysts expect for 2027

Xeneta gave its 2027 outlook this week, reported by AJOT on 5 November. It forecasts that the “Global average spot rate to fall 30%” and the “Global average long term rate to fall 5%.” Both are full-year 2027 averages compared with the third quarter of 2026.

The reasoning is about supply. Xeneta expects the global fleet to grow 6.8% in 2027, against demand growth of 2.5% to 4%. It expects 2.9m TEU of new ships to be delivered and 0.5m TEU to be scrapped. Peter Sand, Xeneta’s chief analyst, said: “Supply growth will outrun demand in 2027, but market fundamentals are easily overpowered by major supply chain shocks”. On the Red Sea, he said: “If there is a full return, freight rates could plummet.”

Sand also warned that this year’s demand strength may fade: “Demand has been strong in 2026, but this growth will be difficult to sustain in 2027”. He said shippers will draw down the stock they built up in 2026. He also pointed to the record of past forecasts: “Rates were expected to soften in each of the past three years before seismic shocks sent them spiralling” in the opposite direction. AJOT lists the shocks: the Red Sea crisis in 2024, US tariffs in 2025 and the Hormuz crisis in 2026.

We read the gap between the two Xeneta numbers as the key point. A 30% fall in spot but only 5% on contracts tells you that even the bearish forecasters expect carriers to defend annual prices. September’s CTS data gives carriers the evidence to do that.

What it means for forwarders and lanes

First, the contract round. Carriers will point to near-record liftings and a price index that rose for another month. Shippers will point to softer weekly screens and Xeneta’s 30% spot forecast. We think the result is modest contract cuts, not deep ones. Forwarders who promise clients big 2027 savings on fixed-rate deals are taking a risk.

Second, the trade imbalance. North American exports fell 1% year on year in the third quarter while North American imports grew. Indian Subcontinent and Middle East exports fell 7%, the only other region to decline. FreightWaves reported that Europe imported about 1.5 boxes for every one it exported this year. Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa exports each rose 8%, and European exports rose 3%. Lanes this lopsided leave empty boxes piling up where cargo lands. That keeps backhaul rates cheap. Backhaul means the return direction, such as US exports to Asia. It also keeps headhaul (main-direction) rates firm. US exporters should keep getting good backhaul prices. Importers should not expect the same.

Third, the Middle East. Indian Subcontinent and Middle East imports returned to year-on-year growth in the third quarter. The gain was small, about 6,600 TEU, after a 12% fall in the second quarter. With the Persian Gulf crisis still running, we would treat that as stabilising, not recovery.

Fourth, the timing risk. CTS cautioned in October that slowing month-to-month growth “could signal a moderation in demand.” Sand expects inventory drawdowns in 2027. If both are right, the soft patch comes in the first half of next year, after most annual contracts are signed. That timing works for carriers. It argues for forwarders building index-linked clauses or mid-year reviews into 2027 contracts, rather than locking in a flat rate based on today’s numbers.

Fifth, Europe. A 1.5-to-1 import-to-export ratio means European ports and depots fill up with empty boxes. That suits European exporters, who should find equipment easy to get and outbound rates soft. It does nothing for importers on Asia–Europe. Drewry’s Shanghai–Rotterdam rate of $3,615 is well below the $7,539 on Shanghai–Los Angeles, but it is not falling fast either. With Drewry calling Asia–Europe flat for next week, we would not tell a European importer to hold cargo back in the hope of a cheaper sailing before Christmas.

Finally, the advice for this week. Use the CTS numbers in tender talks, not just the spot screens. A buyer who only watches the WCI will think the market is turning faster than it is. The broader measure says prices were still rising in September.

Our call

FreightWaves reported the August CTS data on 8 October and the September data on 6 November, so October data should come in early December. Our prediction: the October CTS Global Price Index prints at 115 or higher. That is no more than about a 7% fall from September’s 123, even though spot screens are easing. We also expect October volumes to grow more slowly than September’s 8% but stay above October 2025. We do not expect the index to drop below 110 before the January 2027 figure is published, around March. If it does, that would be the first sign that the spot weakness has reached contract pricing. It would also be our cue to expect deeper contract cuts than the 5% Xeneta forecasts.

Sources

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