Saturday, November 7, 2026
The news that moves freight
Trade & Customs Nov 7, 2026 · 7 min read

Trump signals more tariffs before Democrats take over

Trump has eight weeks before Congress flips. Expect him to spend them on new tariffs.

On 5 November, two days after his party lost Congress, Donald Trump told reporters that companies are building factories in the US because otherwise they face very high tariffs. Seoul Economic Daily and Nocut News, both reporting in Korean, put his figure at up to 300%. He said that removing tariffs would stop construction of more than 3,000 plants. Asked how he would use executive orders, he said a lot was coming in the next one to two weeks.

A day later, Bloomberg reported that Trump could announce a new set of duties linked to excess industrial capacity, affecting more than a dozen economies, before Democrats take control in January.

Our view is simple. The midterm result does not open a period of tariff relief. It opens a short window, roughly November and December, in which the White House has every reason to lock in more tariffs before Congress changes hands. Forwarders should plan for higher landed costs on several Asian and European lanes, not lower ones.

What Trump said, and what he did not

Neither report carries Trump’s exact English wording. Both are translations from Korean, and they differ. Seoul Economic Daily rendered his list of rates as running up to 300%. Nocut News gave a list of 50%, 100%, 150% and 250%, alongside a headline of up to 300%. So treat the 300% as a threat in conversation, not a rate on any notice.

Seoul Economic Daily says Trump gave no legal basis or timing for those rates. He was answering House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries, who has pledged to repeal the tariffs within 100 days, according to the same report.

What matters more is the timing remark. “One to two weeks” points to late November. And there is a ready-made tool sitting on the shelf.

The excess-capacity cases are the likely vehicle

On 11 March, the US Trade Representative (USTR) opened 16 investigations under Section 301. Section 301 is a 1974 trade law that lets the president answer unfair foreign practices with tariffs or other measures. These cases target what USTR called “structural excess capacity and production in various manufacturing sectors,” according to trade law firm STR.

The 16 economies are Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, the European Union, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Norway, Singapore, South Korea, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. Canada is not on the list.

STR listed the sectors USTR named. They include steel, aluminium, autos, batteries, chemicals, electronics, machinery, semiconductors, solar modules, ships, plastics, paper, and processed food and drink. That is a large share of what moves in a container from Asia to the US.

There is history here worth knowing. In March, the cases were meant to move fast. STR reported that comments ran from 17 March to 15 April and hearings began on 5 May. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer hoped to finish before temporary Section 122 tariffs expired on 24 July. The cases were built to replace tariffs that the Supreme Court had struck down earlier in the year. That July target came and went. Bloomberg’s 6 November report says the duties could now come before January.

Our read: the cases are finished in all but the announcement. A president facing a hostile Congress from January has a clear reason to act first. Tariffs already in force are harder to undo than tariffs still being discussed.

Why Congress cannot stop this quickly

Democrats will hold 54 Senate seats and 243 House seats, by Bloomberg’s tally. A repeal bill would almost certainly meet a veto. Overriding a veto takes a two-thirds majority in both chambers. Bloomberg puts that at about 13 Republican senators and nearly 50 House Republicans crossing over.

Some Republicans are uneasy. Senator Ted Cruz told Bloomberg that “tariffs have made everything too expensive.” But one senator’s comment is not 13 votes.

Blake Harden of EY told Bloomberg that the new majority “will want to focus on rolling back tariffs or passing some kind of tariff reform,” and added: “And I think that is very difficult.” He also said: “There’s always somebody, once the tariffs are imposed, who wants them to continue because they’re benefiting from them.”

Bloomberg recalls that the last time Democrats had a chance to reverse Trump’s tariffs, “the Biden administration actually expanded them in a bid to target China.” Chris Kennedy of Bloomberg Economics told readers to “look for continued expansion of a web of sectoral tariffs, country-specific actions, content rules and negotiated exceptions.”

The White House is not hedging either. USTR’s office told Bloomberg that “the administration will continue correcting long-standing trade imbalances.” Bloomberg also notes that a bipartisan Russia sanctions bill gave Trump new tariff authority.

Markets are betting on relief. We think that is early.

Investors liked the result. Bloomberg reports that markets responded well to divided government. Toyota and Hyundai shares rose, partly on speculation that Democrats would roll back tariffs.

We think that bet is early. Carmakers are exposed to two of the 16 economies, Japan and South Korea, and to the Canada auto threat. If excess-capacity duties land in December, the relief trade unwinds fast.

China is the other date to watch. Bloomberg notes that the US-China trade truce expires in January and that Trump is set to meet Xi Jinping. A president who wants leverage at that meeting is more likely to add duties in December than to cut them. Bloomberg also says a bipartisan trade bill is possible but unlikely to come quickly.

So two clocks run into January: the new Congress and the China truce. Both point the same way for the next eight weeks.

Canada: welcome words, same 50%

Canada sits outside the excess-capacity cases but is far from safe. Speaking in Winnipeg on 6 November, Prime Minister Mark Carney said: “We welcome any moves to restore a free trading arrangement between Canada and the United States.” He also said: “We will continue to work with the Americans to get a deal that works for Canada.”

AP reports that Senator Ron Wyden, expected to chair the Senate Finance Committee from January, has named the Canada tariffs an early repeal target. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer introduced a repeal bill in September.

None of that changes the duty on a truck crossing at Detroit this month. AP says Trump has imposed 50% tariffs on billions of dollars of Canadian goods and has threatened new tariffs on Canadian autos from January. Carney has not said whether the election changes his negotiating stance. AP describes Ottawa’s choice as taking a deal that reduces tariffs but does not end them, or holding out for full free trade while Congress tries to act.

Our view: Ottawa now has a reason to wait, and Washington has a reason to push. That is a recipe for no deal before January, and the auto threat as the next live date.

What this means for forwarders

These are our expectations, not reported facts.

First, pull-forward. Importers buying from the 16 economies, especially in steel-heavy, electronics, machinery and solar categories, will want to know whether to land goods before any new duty takes effect. Expect requests to bring January and February orders into December. That puts pressure on space from Asia ahead of Lunar New Year, which in a normal year already lifts demand.

Second, customs workload. New Section 301 duties usually arrive as lists of tariff codes with exclusions and effective dates. Every new list means reclassification checks, duty estimates for customers and bond reviews. Customs brokers should brief clients now on which of their codes fall in the named sectors.

Third, Mexico. Mexico is one of the 16. Nearshoring flows that moved from Asia to Mexico to avoid China tariffs could now face a duty of their own. Cross-border truck and rail customers should not assume Mexico is a safe harbour.

Fourth, Canada. The 50% stays. The January auto threat hangs over parts and finished vehicle flows. Clients should not price relief from Congress into 2027 contracts.

Fifth, quotes. Any landed-cost quote that runs past mid-December on goods from the 16 economies should carry a clear duty-change clause.

Our prediction

Our call has two parts.

Before the new Congress sits in January, the White House will announce new excess-capacity Section 301 duties on at least some of the 16 economies. China, Vietnam and the EU are the most likely to be named.

Beyond that, we hold our view. No tariff repeal becomes law by 31 March 2027. Trump vetoes whatever arrives, and the veto stands. The overall US duty stack will be the same or higher on 31 March 2027 than it is today. If anything lowers it before then, our bet is a court ruling or a White House deal with Canada or Mexico, not a vote in Congress.

Sources

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