Monday, November 9, 2026
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Trucking & Rail Nov 9, 2026 · 7 min read

US intermodal rates up 12%, and fuel is doing most of the lifting

Fuel, not freight demand, is pushing US rail rates up, and the next bill lands on 16 November

US transcontinental intermodal contract rates are up more than 12% on a year ago. Rates on shorter Eastern lanes are up close to 9%. Both figures come from FreightWaves’ SONAR data, in an analysis by market analyst Zach Strickland published on Saturday 7 November.

Intermodal means a container that moves most of its trip by rail, with a short truck move at each end. A contract rate is the price agreed in an annual deal, not a one-off spot price.

Our view is simple. This is a fuel story, not a capacity story. The railroads and intermodal carriers are not winning big price increases. Diesel is. For forwarders, that changes where to look when a Q4 inland quote comes in high. Look at the fuel lines first.

What the numbers actually say

FreightWaves breaks the increase into two parts. Fuel explains roughly two-thirds of the transcontinental rise and three-quarters of the Eastern rise. Strip fuel out and the transcon rate is up about 5%. The Eastern rate is up about 2%.

The timing shows the same thing. FreightWaves says diesel rose about 50% in March and April. The transcon index then rose 6% from April to May. Diesel rose about 36% from July to September. The index then rose 10% from August to October. Each time, rates followed diesel about a month later. FreightWaves says invoice data lags the actual freight movement by a few weeks, so diesel swings show up in the index later. A fuel surcharge table is a schedule that sets an extra charge for each step up in the published diesel price.

Strickland summed up the quarter: “Intermodal contract rates, including fuel, have taken off in the fourth quarter.” He also made the point that matters most for anyone auditing invoices: “Fuel surcharges are not meant to be a profit center for carriers.”

The base-rate picture is flat. J.B. Hunt, a major US intermodal carrier, said it won only low-single-digit increases in this year’s bid season. Bid season is the annual round of contract tenders, and it closed in September. FreightWaves says that fits the data.

Demand has not been hurt. In Strickland’s words: “So far, shippers do not seem to mind: volumes have largely recovered, and growth is still running around 7% annualized.”

Why diesel is so high

The diesel spike has a clear source. When Maersk first brought in its US and Canada emergency intermodal fuel charge in April, it pointed to the Middle East conflict. Maersk said many refineries in the region were offline or running at reduced capacity, affecting fuel supply and inland distribution costs.

The price level is still extreme. Maersk’s 6 November North American market update cites a US Energy Information Administration (EIA) national average of $6.35 a gallon for on-highway diesel on 26 October. Energy News Beat, citing motoring group AAA, put the national average at $6.256 on 5 November. That was about 69% above a year earlier. It was also 27 cents below the record of $6.528 set on 22 September.

So diesel has come off its peak, but only a little. The same Energy News Beat piece relays the International Energy Agency’s view that rebuilding lost fuel stocks is unlikely before the second half of 2027. It also notes US distillate stocks, which include diesel, were about 13% below the five-year average.

Maersk’s 16 November increase

Ocean carriers pass inland fuel costs on too. On 16 October Maersk published a notice saying: “Effective November 16, 2026, we will increase the Emergency Intermodal Fuel Surcharge.” The reason it gave was “recent increases in diesel fuel prices.”

The charge covers containers moving between an inland rail ramp or container yard and an ocean terminal in the US or Canada. In Maersk’s words: “The surcharge applies to cargo moving between an inland rail ramp or container yard and an ocean terminal.” That includes both CY cargo (delivered to a carrier container yard) and SD cargo (store door, delivered to the customer’s site).

The new amounts are: - Imports into the US and Canada: $350 per dry container, $400 per reefer. - Exports from the US and Canada: $125 per dry container, $175 per reefer.

Maersk’s 29 June notice listed the same charge at $200 per dry import box and $250 per reefer, with exports at $100 and $150. On those figures, the dry import charge rises 75% and the reefer import charge 60%. Exports rise less, by 25% and about 17%.

The charge has climbed in steps this year. Maersk’s 1 April notice set it at $100 per container, for cargo priced from 18 April. At that stage it was billed on one line with the ocean Emergency Bunker Fuel fee. Maersk said it would review the add-on every 14 days using the EIA’s weekly average fuel price. By the 29 June notice it was $200 on dry imports and was being separated from the ocean bunker surcharge on invoices. From 16 November it is $350. That is three and a half times the April level in seven months.

The charge keeps its invoice names: Emergency Operational Cost Recovery on imports and Emergency Operational Cost Exports on exports. For contract cargo, the price calculation date decides which rate applies. For spot cargo, it is the first vessel’s departure date at booking confirmation.

What it means for forwarders

First, audit the fuel lines, not the base rate. If a Q4 rail quote to a US inland point is up 10% or more, most of that should be fuel. If the base linehaul is also up sharply, ask why. Linehaul is the main rail haul, before fuel and other extras. The data say the railroads’ own pricing is up only about 5% on transcon lanes.

Second, check which fuel table applies. FreightWaves compares its index with a common published fuel schedule and concludes: “That suggests many larger shippers have negotiated their own, less aggressive tables.” Forwarders buying on published tariffs may be paying more fuel per mile than big direct shippers on the same lane. That is worth raising at the next contract review.

Third, re-price IPI moves now. IPI, or inland point intermodal, is an ocean booking that runs on one bill of lading through a port to an inland rail ramp. On Maersk import boxes, the jump from $200 to $350 adds $150 per dry container on cargo priced from 16 November. Quotes already issued for late-November arrivals may not cover it.

Fourth, do not switch to truck because of these headlines. FreightWaves’ Intermodal Contract Savings Index still shows rail about 30% cheaper than comparable truckload. That is down only slightly from a 33% peak in June. Our reading: trucks pay the same diesel bill, so the gap has held.

Fifth, plan for friction on the ground. Maersk’s market update says railcar supply is tight in some markets and warns: “Some elevated dwell is expected during November as high volumes and weather-related vessel bunching affect cargo flows.” Dwell is the time a container sits at a terminal or ramp. Maersk also says Houston and Los Angeles have tighter drayage, the short truck move between port and ramp or warehouse. It says Northeast reefer trucking is tight through November and advises booking transatlantic cargo, including Canada-bound boxes, three to four weeks ahead. Its view of demand: “Import volumes are expected to remain strong through Q4 2026.”

FreightWaves also flags that rail has its own risks. It cites the recent weather-related BNSF washout in New Mexico and the CSX technical outage as reminders that rail can be disrupted too.

Where this goes next

Diesel has eased from its September record. Futures prices have fallen since mid-October, according to Energy News Beat. But diesel swings reach the index a few weeks late, and in our reading the September peak is only now feeding into contract rates. Maersk’s increase lands after the peak, not before it.

Our view: the fuel-driven gain will stay in the numbers through the holidays. The base-rate story will stay dull until the next bid season. A real squeeze would show up as the ex-fuel number rising, not the headline.

Our prediction: the SONAR transcontinental intermodal contract rate will still be more than 10% above its year-ago level on 31 December 2026. The ex-fuel increase will stay below 6% over the same period. We also expect Maersk’s import charge to stay at $350 per dry container or higher until at least the end of January 2027. Distillate stocks are too low, and the IEA’s recovery timeline too long, for a quick cut.

Sources

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