Transpacific rates keep sliding as carriers double their blank sailings
Tracker Blank sailings · 46 sailings
Tracker Carrier surcharges and GRIs this month · 4,305 $/FEU
Carriers doubled transpacific blank sailings, and the rate slide carried on
Drewry’s World Container Index fell 2% on Thursday 12 November to $4,305 per 40ft container. The WCI is a weekly average of spot rates on eight major east–west lanes, and it is one of the most quoted benchmarks for what it costs to move a box right now. This week the drop came mainly from the transpacific. Shanghai–New York fell 3% to $9,020 per 40ft, its lowest level since August 2026. Shanghai–Los Angeles fell 2% to $7,416, its lowest since September.
Here is our view. The transpacific peak season is over, and carriers are now trying to defend prices by taking ships out of the market. That is a sign of weakness, not strength. They doubled next week’s blank sailings and rates still fell. We think that slide has further to go before Christmas. Asia–Europe is a different story, and we would not treat the two trades as one market.
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The capacity cuts are not holding the price
A blank sailing is a scheduled voyage that a carrier cancels. It removes space from the market and is the main tool lines use to stop rates falling when cargo dries up. Drewry says “carriers are attempting to manage capacity through blank sailings.” On the transpacific, it counts “eight blank sailings have been announced for next week, compared with four this week.”
That should have firmed prices. It has not. Drewry notes that transpacific rates have followed a downward trend over the past three weeks. Its outlook is blunt: “However, with demand remaining weak, Drewry expects freight rates to decrease further next week.”
This is not a one-week blip. On 4 November, Green Worldwide’s weekly market update reported that the WCI fell 3% in the week of 29 October, with Shanghai–Los Angeles down 6% and Shanghai–New York down 5%. The same update relayed Drewry’s view that it “expects additional downward pressure on Trans-Pacific rates as U.S. import demand softens.” The same update said Drewry expected 56 blank sailings out of 715 scheduled voyages in weeks 45 to 49. That is about 8%, and the update put the transpacific eastbound share at 36%.
Other indices agree on direction. Freightos’s 10 November update showed its Asia–US West Coast index (FBX01) down 1% and its Asia–US East Coast index (FBX03) down 2% on the week. Freightos put spot prices at about $8,200 per FEU (a 40ft container) to the West Coast and about $9,700 to the East Coast. Those levels sit above Drewry’s because the two indices measure different routes and methods. The direction is the same.
FreightWaves, reporting on 12 November, said transpacific rates “fell slightly this past week as carriers’ planned general rate increases failed to take hold.” A GRI, or general rate increase, is a price rise a carrier announces across a trade. When GRIs fail, carriers have usually lost pricing power for the season.
Why demand is running out of road
The cause is simple. US importers brought cargo in early this year and kept it coming for longer than usual. Freightos’s Judah Levine described “the unusually early and then unusually long transpacific ocean peak season that has kept US container import volumes elevated since May.” He added: “Slowing demand may be one factor in transpacific container rates easing slightly last week.”
The numbers show the turn. According to the National Retail Federation, as cited by FreightWaves, US loaded imports hit 2.37 million TEU in September. TEU means twenty-foot equivalent unit, the standard measure of container volume. The NRF forecasts 2.26 million TEU for October and 2.05 million TEU for November, about 14% below the September high. It expects the full year at 26 million TEU, about 2% above 2025.
FreightWaves cites the NRF linking the early surge to “renewed tariff pressures in the second quarter, which encouraged frontloading by importers.” Frontloading means pulling shipments forward to beat a cost increase. The catch is that cargo moved early is cargo that will not move later. We think December and early January will be thin.
C.H. Robinson made the same point in its November market update, published 5 November. It said “lower seasonal import volumes should gradually improve booking flexibility.” It also flagged that steadier schedules and lower vessel use “could create rate relief as November progresses.”
Asia–Europe is not following the same script
On Asia–Europe, the picture is mixed. Shanghai–Rotterdam fell 3% to $3,504 per 40ft. Shanghai–Genoa was flat at $4,168. Freightos showed Asia–North Europe at about $3,400 per FEU, down 5% on the week, and Asia–Mediterranean at about $4,300, down 1%. Levine wrote that “Carriers seem to have abandoned November 1st GRI hopes for Asia – Europe lanes as well.”
But carriers are trying again. Drewry says lines have announced higher FAK rates and PSS on Asia–Europe and Mediterranean routes from the second half of November. FAK means freight all kinds, a carrier’s standard spot tariff for general cargo. PSS means peak season surcharge. Drewry also counts eight blank sailings on these routes next week, up from five this week. On that basis it says it “expects rates to increase slightly in the coming weeks.”
The backdrop is the reopening of the Suez route. Drewry counted 53 Suez Canal transits last week and just one through the Strait of Hormuz. More ships using Suez means shorter voyages and more effective capacity, which keeps a lid on Asia–Europe rates.
We take Drewry’s outlook seriously, but timing matters. Most of the new FAK and PSS rounds start in the second half of the month. Drewry’s next reading comes on 19 November, before most of them take effect. We think Rotterdam stays below $3,522 at that reading. After that, the test is whether the late-November filings actually stick. Drewry’s outlook suggests some of the increase may stick, but on the record this autumn we doubt it will in full.
Two risks that could change the picture fast
The first is Shanghai itself. Drewry says congestion at Shanghai port rose to 49 hours last week from 36 hours the week before, “reversing the easing trend observed over the previous 11 consecutive weeks.” Congestion here means the average time ships wait for a berth. Longer waits can push vessels off schedule, cause rolled cargo (boxes bumped to a later sailing) and make cut-offs harder to hit. If it keeps rising, it could tighten capacity on certain loops even while the overall market stays soft. C.H. Robinson’s update warned that rollovers and limited departures on single services “may contribute to firmer spot rates” in pockets.
The second is labour at the San Pedro Bay ports. Freightos reports that ILWU Local 26, the union representing watchmen at Los Angeles and Long Beach terminals, has extended its contract deadline to 20 November while talks continue with employers. FreightWaves noted that “A strike would threaten further disruption.” Freightos added that most holiday goods have already landed, but plenty still has to move inland, where a rail backlog is already slowing importers. A walkout would hit inland moves first, not ocean rates.
Politics adds some noise. FreightWaves points to the Democratic sweep in last week’s US midterms and “an expected meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in China later this month.” It also notes that US–China reciprocal port fees are suspended until 10 January 2027. None of this changes demand this month. It does make 2027 contract planning harder.
What forwarders should do now
For transpacific spot cargo, the advantage is moving to the buyer. Weak demand, failed GRIs and a carrier side that is cutting sailings rather than holding prices all point the same way. Forwarders should ask for fresh quotes for December sailings rather than locking in today’s levels. They should test carriers that have blanked fewer sailings, since those lines have the most space to fill.
Blank sailings cut both ways. Fewer departures mean less choice of dates. Book early on the sailings that remain, and confirm vessel schedules closer to departure than usual. Build an extra day or two into Shanghai cut-offs while congestion is rising.
On Asia–Europe, budget for the late-November surcharges, but do not assume they will be charged in full. Ask carriers which filings they are actually applying to your bookings. Keep contingency plans for Los Angeles and Long Beach inland moves until the 20 November deadline passes.
Our call
We expect Drewry’s Shanghai–Los Angeles rate to print below $7,416 per 40ft in its 19 November reading, and Shanghai–New York to stay below $9,020 on the same date. We expect Shanghai–Rotterdam, at $3,504 now, to stay below $3,522 at that 19 November reading, and Shanghai–Genoa to stay below $4,500. We do not expect November FAK filings on Asia–Europe to be realised in full. We expect Drewry’s composite WCI to stay below $4,485 through late November.
Sources
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