Monday, October 26, 2026
The news that moves freight
Companies & Markets Oct 26, 2026 · 7 min read

US freight earnings week: UPS, Werner, XPO and C.H. Robinson report

UPS opens a US earnings week where fuel, not demand, is the test. UPS reports third-quarter results on Tuesday 27 October. Analysts expect earnings per share of $1.63, against $1.74 a year ago. Our view: this week tests whether diesel is eating freight margins. Werner has already warned of adjusted EPS of 15 to 16 cents, citing about 18 cents a share of cost headwinds, including fuel. AAA puts US diesel at $6.35 a gallon, up 74% on a year ago. For forwarders, expect fuel surcharges to stay high. Our call: at least two of UPS, XPO and C.H. Robinson will name fuel as a third-quarter drag on this week’s calls.

Who passed the diesel bill on? Four US freight results this week will show

UPS reports third-quarter results on Tuesday 27 October. It is the first of four big US freight names to report this week. Analysts expect revenue of about $22.14bn and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.63, according to Fiscal AI figures cited by Stocktwits on 7 October. NextEarningsDate, updated on 23 October, lists the date as confirmed. It shows the same $1.63 EPS figure and a slightly higher revenue estimate of $22.27bn. Stocktwits puts the call at 8:30am Eastern.

Werner, a large US truckload carrier, reports later the same day. XPO, one of the biggest US LTL carriers, reports on Thursday 29 October. Earnings Whispers expects C.H. Robinson, one of the largest US truck brokers, on the same Thursday. Expeditors follows on 3 November, according to MarketScreener. Maersk reports on 5 November.

What we think this week is really about

Our view is simple. This week is not mainly about freight demand. It is about cost, and above all fuel. The question for each company is how much of a much higher diesel bill it managed to pass on to shippers, and how fast.

That matters to forwarders because the answer shapes what you will be quoted next. A company that kept its margins will defend its pricing. A company that did not will push harder on fuel surcharges and 2027 contract rates. Either way, the shipper pays more.

The numbers behind that view

Start with UPS. A year ago, in the third quarter of 2025, UPS reported revenue of $21.4bn and adjusted EPS of $1.74, according to its earnings release filed with the SEC. “Adjusted” means the company strips out one-off items such as restructuring costs.

Last year’s quarter was already a story of shrinking volume. UPS’s US domestic average daily volume fell to 16.15 million pieces from 18.41 million a year earlier, a drop of about 12%. UPS called the fall expected. Its plan included cutting volume from what it called “our largest customer”. Higher revenue per piece only partly offset the drop. It also leaned on a cost-cutting programme that had saved about $2.2bn by the end of September 2025. Chief executive Carol Tomé said then: “We are executing the most significant strategic shift in our company’s history”. This year, fuel is the cost that cutting cannot easily offset.

Now compare that with this year’s estimates. Revenue of $22.14bn would be about 3.5% higher than last year. But EPS of $1.63 would be about 6% lower. In plain terms, the market expects UPS to sell more and keep less. That gap is what we will be watching on Tuesday.

Citi has already marked down its expectations. On 7 October it cut its UPS price target to $122 from $132, while keeping a Buy rating, Stocktwits reported. Citi’s view, as relayed by Stocktwits, was that “higher fuel prices and rising interest rates are likely to keep many investors cautious”. The same report said Citi saw a silver lining: “recent declines in transportation stocks have created a more favorable risk/reward”. Shares were trading near $93 before the market opened that day.

Then there is Werner, which has already told us much of its story. On 19 October it issued early figures for the quarter. It now expects revenue of about $946m to $951m and adjusted EPS of about 15 to 16 cents. On a standard accounting basis, it expects EPS of about 10 to 11 cents.

Werner explained why. It said the quarter’s results “were negatively impacted by approximately $0.18 per share of cumulative cost headwinds” compared with the second quarter. It named three causes: rapidly rising fuel prices, spending to recruit and keep drivers, and a late-quarter top-up to its insurance reserves for past claims. Werner will release full results after the market closes on 27 October and hold its call at 4:00pm Central time.

An 18-cent hit is larger than the 15 to 16 cents Werner now expects to earn for the whole quarter. In our view, that is the clearest sign yet of how much cost pressure US trucking has absorbed.

And the fuel itself: AAA puts the US national average diesel price at $6.3474 a gallon on 25 October. A week earlier it was $6.3224. A month ago it was $6.5019. A year ago it was $3.6567. That is about 74% higher than last year. Diesel has eased slightly over the month, but it is still far above any level that carriers built into budgets a year ago.

What C.H. Robinson and XPO add to the picture

C.H. Robinson is the one to watch for forwarders who buy US trucking through brokers. A broker sits between shippers and carriers. It makes its money on the gap between what it charges the shipper and what it pays the truck. When truck costs rise faster than shipper contracts, that gap shrinks.

In the second quarter, Robinson showed how it has been coping. Its earnings release, dated 29 July, reported revenue up 19.3% to $4.9bn, mainly from higher pricing across truckload, LTL, air and ocean. Adjusted gross profit, the money left after paying carriers, rose 6.5% to $738.0m. Adjusted EPS was $1.61, up 24.8%. Average headcount fell 10.8% from a year earlier. The company credits its productivity gains to what it calls its “Lean AI” strategy.

Volumes barely moved. Robinson said its North American truckload volume rose 0.5% and LTL volume rose 2.0%. Chief executive Dave Bozeman framed the quarter this way: “Despite being in the trough of the freight market demand cycle”. He pointed to the Cass Freight Shipment Index, a common US measure of freight shipped, “declining on a year-over-year basis for the 15th consecutive quarter”.

So in the second quarter, Robinson grew profit through price and cost cuts, not through more freight. Our view is that the third quarter tests whether price can keep pace with fuel. If its gross profit growth slows sharply from 6.5%, that tells you brokers are absorbing costs they cannot yet pass on.

XPO tells a different part of the story. LTL means less-than-truckload: shipments too small to fill a trailer, shared with other customers’ freight. LTL carriers tend to have firmer pricing than truckload carriers because the networks are harder to build. XPO’s own release says it will publish results early on 29 October, before an 8:30am Eastern call. If any US carrier has passed fuel through cleanly, we would expect it to be an LTL carrier like XPO.

What it means for forwarders and shippers

Here is how we expect this to land on your desk.

First, fuel surcharges. Most US carriers and brokers adjust fuel surcharges weekly against a published diesel index. With diesel near $6.35, those surcharges are already a large share of a US inland quote. Expect them to stay high and to be defended in negotiations. Carriers that missed numbers this quarter will not give ground on them.

Second, 2027 contracts. Many US shippers are starting annual trucking bids now. Companies that report squeezed margins this week will go into those talks wanting higher base rates, not just fuel recovery. Werner’s driver costs and insurance charges are not fuel. They will not fall if diesel does.

Third, parcel and small-package air. UPS is the bellwether for US parcel and express. If it reports falling profit on rising revenue, expect it to protect margin through surcharges and pricing rather than volume. That matters for forwarders who move e-commerce or urgent freight into US final-mile networks during peak season.

Fourth, the wider earnings run. Expeditors on 3 November and Maersk on 5 November will add the international side. MarketScreener lists a forecast for Expeditors of $2.23 EPS on net sales of $3,596m. Maersk says it will publish its third-quarter report around 8:00am Copenhagen time on 5 November, with a call at 11:00am. Taken together, these results will show whether cost pressure is a US trucking problem or a wider one.

Our call

These are our predictions, not company guidance.

UPS will report adjusted EPS below last year’s $1.74 on Tuesday. Given where the consensus sits, the real question is whether it lands at or below $1.63. We think fuel will be a named reason either way.

By the end of this week, at least two of UPS, XPO and C.H. Robinson will name fuel as a drag on third-quarter results on their calls.

And by the end of Q4, shippers renewing US trucking contracts should expect carriers to hold fuel surcharges firm and ask for higher base rates as well. Forwarders who quote US inland legs should build that into 2027 pricing now, rather than wait for diesel to fall.

Sources