Trade & Customs Oct 14, 2026 · 7 min read

Solar duties on India, Indonesia and Laos land on 2 November

Solar duties of over 100% hit India, Indonesia and Laos from 2 November. On 14 October the US International Trade Commission (ITC) cleared final anti-dumping and countervailing duties on solar cells and modules from India, Indonesia and Laos. Commerce issues the orders on 2 November. Cash deposits start after that. India’s rates are 123.04% anti-dumping and 126.09% anti-subsidy. Our view: this lane is finished, not repriced. In 2024 the US imported about $1.5 billion of these goods from the three countries, per Commerce. Forwarders should expect stricter origin checks on cells. Our call: monthly imports from the three countries fall more than 90% from 2024 levels by March 2027.

Solar’s third detour hits a wall on 2 November. The next one has already started.
On Wednesday 14 October the US International Trade Commission (ITC) voted on solar cells and modules from India, Indonesia and Laos. It found that these imports had harmed US manufacturers. This is called an affirmative final injury determination. It was the last step before duties become law. Solar Power World reports that Commerce “will issue its orders on November 2”. After that, US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) “will begin collecting cash deposits on imports of subject solar cells and modules from India, Indonesia and Laos.”
The duties are AD/CVD. AD stands for anti-dumping, a duty on goods sold in the US below fair value. CVD stands for countervailing duty, which offsets subsidies paid by a foreign government. A cash deposit is the estimated duty the importer pays at entry. The final amount is settled later.
Our view is simple. This is not a price increase that buyers will absorb. It closes a sourcing route. The three countries grew fast because earlier duties pushed production there. From 2 November that route is shut. The volume will move to the next country that is not yet covered, as it did last time.

The rates are prohibitive

Commerce published its final rates on 11 September. Its fact sheet lists the following.
India: a dumping margin of 123.04% for every listed producer and for “All Others”. The anti-dumping cash deposit rate is lower, at 107.17%. On top of that comes a subsidy rate of 126.09%. pv magazine USA puts India’s combined margin at “as high as 234%”.
Indonesia: a dumping margin of 94.36% across the board. Subsidy rates range from 73.20% for PT REC Solar Energy Indonesia and all others, to 173.70% for PT Blue Sky Solar Indonesia.
Laos: a dumping margin of 65.43%, with a cash deposit rate of 65.03%. Subsidy rates range from 82.03% for Solarspace Technology (Laos) and all others, to 153.67% for Vietnam Sunergy Joint Stock Company.
Several of the highest rates rest on what Commerce calls “facts available with adverse inferences”. In plain English, Commerce found that a company or government did not fully cooperate, so it used assumptions that work against them. India’s whole anti-dumping rate is built that way.
The rates also rose during the case. PV Tech reports that the preliminary anti-dumping margins in April were 123.04% for India, 35.15% for Indonesia and 22.46% for Laos. India’s stayed the same. Indonesia’s nearly tripled to 94.36%. Laos’s nearly tripled to 65.43%.
Once deposits pass 100% of the goods’ value, the maths no longer works for most buyers. Joe Hennessy of PV Tech Research told PV Tech: “The release of the final rates will likely stop cell imports from these countries.”

How fast these lanes grew

Commerce’s fact sheet includes US import data from the Census Bureau, via S&P Global Trade Atlas. It covers the two tariff lines for solar cells and modules.

India: $83.9 million in 2022, $760.8 million in 2023, $792.6 million in 2024.

Indonesia: $177.5 million in 2022, $171.9 million in 2023, $415.2 million in 2024.

Laos: zero in 2022, $6,694 in 2023, $335.7 million in 2024.

Laos is the clearest case. It went from almost nothing to $335.7 million of shipments in a single year. That is not organic growth. It is a factory move. The petitioners, the Alliance for American Solar Manufacturing and Trade, said the same thing. Solar Power World reports that the Alliance’s petition, filed in July 2025, alleged that manufacturers had moved operations to these countries to avoid existing tariffs.
Together the three countries shipped about $1.54 billion of cells and modules to the US in 2024, based on those Commerce figures.
India’s own industry plays down the hit. Prabhakar Sharma of JMK Research told PV Tech: “we export only 2GW to 3GW of modules to the US annually, which is relatively marginal”. Vinay Rustagi of Premier Energies was less relaxed. He told PV Tech: “The US has been a prime export focus for Indian cell and module manufacturers but the market has become unpredictable”.

What happened last time

This is the fourth round of US solar trade cases, which pv magazine USA calls Solar IV. The third round, Solar III, targeted Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. pv magazine USA reports that its duty orders took effect in June 2025. Shipments from those four countries then fell “from $12.2 billion in 2023 to $1.3 billion in 2025.”
That is a drop of almost 90% in two years. The volume did not disappear. It moved, and some of it moved to India, Indonesia and Laos. Those countries are now covered too.
The ITC result itself was no surprise. At the preliminary stage in August 2025, the ITC’s news release recorded that Chair Amy A. Karpel and Commissioners David S. Johanson and Jason E. Kearns all voted in the affirmative. The petitioners’ lawyer is confident. Tim Brightbill of Wiley Rein, lead counsel to the Alliance, said after the vote: “Today’s vote confirms that U.S. solar manufacturers and workers have been harmed by dumped and subsidized imports from India, Indonesia and Laos.” He added: “U.S. manufacturers are ready to compete, and now they can.”

Where the cargo goes next

The supply chain has already moved. pv magazine USA reports that cell supply for US module assembly “has largely migrated away from the target nations”. It says the main volumes now come from “South Korea, the Philippines, and emerging African manufacturing hubs including Kenya, Nigeria, and Ethiopia.”
Two of those are already in the firing line. Solar Power World reports: “Commerce is also considering tariffs on solar imports from Ethiopia and South Korea, and those investigations are ongoing.” pv magazine USA adds that a separate petition by American Manufacturers for Energy Resilience is aimed at South Korean cells.
There is also a policy change underway. pv magazine USA reports that new Section 232 rules set minimum import prices. It lists them as $0.22 per watt for cells and $0.38 per watt for modules. The outlet says observers believe this “may lessen significantly” the legal basis for future AD/CVD cases. Our read: if price floors replace trade cases, the cat-and-mouse game of moving factories slows down. That would not happen in time to help India, Indonesia or Laos.

What forwarders and importers should do now

First, the scope follows the cell, not just the module. Commerce’s case covers cells “whether or not assembled into modules”. A module put together in a fourth country can still be caught if its cells came from India, Indonesia or Laos. Expect CBP to ask for supply chain paperwork that traces cells to their factory.
Second, entries change. Goods covered by AD/CVD are filed with case numbers, and the importer pays cash deposits at entry. At rates above 100%, a single container can need a deposit larger than the value of the cargo. Customs bonds are the guarantee an importer posts to CBP. Check that they are large enough, and expect sureties to ask for more collateral.
Third, watch for a short-term rush. Some buyers will try to clear goods before the orders take effect. Space on the Indian west coast and Southeast Asian loops that carry these cargoes may see a brief bump in October. After that, expect a sharp fall.
Fourth, plan for the new lanes. Freight from South Korea, the Philippines and East Africa to US ports and inland solar sites is the growth area. With Ethiopia and South Korea under investigation, those lanes carry the same risk in 12 to 18 months.

Our call

We expect this round to follow the last one closely. Our prediction: by March 2027, US Census data will show monthly solar cell and module imports from India, Indonesia and Laos combined at less than a tenth of their 2024 monthly average. That average was about $129 million.
We also expect the next detour to show up quickly. Our second call: by the end of Q1 2027, at least one new country with little or no US solar export history in 2024 will rank among the top ten suppliers of cells to the US.

Sources