Ocean Oct 10, 2026 · 8 min read

The Panama Canal rides out a 7.7 quake and adds transit slots from 15 October

Panama Canal shrugs off a 7.7 quake and goes to 33 daily slots from 15 October. A magnitude 7.7 earthquake hit southern Panama at 12:56pm on Friday, about 200 km from Panama City. Ships kept moving and the canal said operations were unaffected, according to Splash247. Our view: the quake is a footnote. Water is the story. From 15 October the canal adds one slot for the biggest ships, taking the total to 33 a day, according to the Panama Canal Authority. That is still three short of the 36 a day before September’s cuts, according to Kuwait Times. Ships without bookings still risk “indefinite delays”. We expect 33 to hold through November, then tighten again in the dry season.

The Panama Canal came through a 7.7 quake undamaged. Water, not seismic risk, still sets its capacity
A magnitude 7.7 earthquake struck southern Panama at 12:56pm local time on Friday 9 October. The epicentre was about 200 km from Panama City, at a depth of 12.6 km, according to US Geological Survey data reported by Splash247. The canal kept running, and its operator said shipping was unaffected.
That is the headline, but in our view it is not the story. For anyone moving freight through Panama, the number that matters this week is 33. That is how many daily transit slots the canal will offer from Thursday 15 October, up from 32. It is still three short of where the canal was before September’s cuts. The limit on this waterway is water, and the quake did nothing to change that.

What happened on Friday

The shaking was severe. The USGS event page, as shown by Earthquake Tracker, rates the strongest shaking as “violent” and carries a red PAGER alert, the agency’s top warning, meaning widespread severe impact is likely. Thousands of people fled buildings in Panama City, according to Splash247. More than 40 aftershocks followed. Roads, homes and public buildings were damaged across several provinces. Tsunami warnings along parts of Central America’s Pacific coast were later lifted.
The Panama Canal Authority (ACP) activated its emergency protocols and sent technical teams to inspect the locks, dams and other critical infrastructure, according to Splash247. It confirmed “shipping operations were unaffected.” The damage it did report was away from the shipping channel: minor damage to four office buildings on the Pacific side, and structural damage to elevated water tanks at the Monte Esperanza water treatment plant in Colón.
The ACP also denied local rumours that a gate at the Agua Clara locks had been dislodged. Agua Clara is the Atlantic-side set of neopanamax locks, the larger, newer locks that take the biggest container ships. A gate failure there would have been a real problem. It did not happen.
This is not the first time the canal has been tested this way, though Friday’s quake was far larger than most. When a magnitude 6.2 quake hit near the Costa Rica border in June 2019, FreightWaves reported: “While earthquakes and tremors are common in this area, a Panama Canal spokesperson told FreightWaves that they have never had an impact on the Panama Canal.” Friday’s event keeps that record intact.

Why water is the real constraint

Every ship that passes through the locks uses fresh water from Gatun Lake, the man-made lake in the middle of the canal. When rain is short, the lake drops. When the lake drops, the ACP has two levers. It can cut the maximum draft, which is how deep a ship is allowed to sit in the water. A lower draft means ships carry less cargo. Or it can cut the number of daily transits.
This year it has pulled both. On 5 August the ACP announced that the neopanamax draft limit would fall to 48 feet, then 47.5 feet. It said at the time: “The draft adjustment will not affect the number of daily vessel transits.”
That changed two weeks later. On 20 August the ACP said “current watershed conditions, including below-expected precipitation in the Canal watershed, require additional action”. It cut the neopanamax locks to 9 daily slots and the older Panamax locks to 25 from 3 September, then to 23 from 15 September. Daily transits fell from 36 to 32, according to Kuwait Times.
The last comparable cut came in the 2023 drought, when El Niño forced the canal down to 22 crossings a day, according to Kuwait Times. Gatun Lake fell to just over 79 feet that year, according to Maritime Executive.

What changed on 28 September

Then conditions improved a little. In advisory ADV-36-2026, dated 28 September, the ACP raised the neopanamax draft limit to 14.94 metres (49.0 feet) “effective immediately and until further notice.” From 15 October the neopanamax locks go back to 10 daily transits, for 33 slots across both sets of locks.
The ACP pointed to “close to average precipitation in the watershed” and to water-saving measures in the locks, according to Maritime Executive. Gatun Lake stood at 84.7 feet, up from about 84 feet at the start of September. The ACP’s projection shows the level stable through October, with a possible rise of up to one foot in November. The Panamax locks stay at 23 daily transits.
The warning has not changed. In the ACP’s words: “Vessels without a reservation may therefore face indefinite delays.” Its booking system remains the only way to guarantee a transit date.
The cost of skipping the queue shows how tight things have been. In August a 10,100 TEU containership, the Seaspan Benefactor, reportedly bid nearly $4 million at auction to move up the line, according to Maritime Executive. Argus put the average neopanamax bid at $2.5 million, and said average prices “have surged more than 16-fold compared to the same period last year.” By late September the backlog was limited, because nearly all vessels were booking ahead, though some auctions still reportedly set record prices, according to Maritime Executive.

What this means for forwarders and shippers

The canal handles 5% of global maritime trade and around 40% of US container traffic, according to Kuwait Times. The lanes that feel it most are Asia to the US East Coast and Gulf, and west coast South America to the US East Coast and Europe.
Our read on the 15 October change:

The extra slot goes where container lines need it. The biggest container ships can only use the neopanamax locks. Since 3 September, the ACP’s slot allocation has given priority at those locks to fully laden containerships with the highest TEU capacity, according to Container News. One more slot a day at those locks is worth more to liner shipping than its size suggests.

The extra foot is cargo. A higher draft limit lets ships load deeper. On full Asia to US East Coast strings, that means more boxes per sailing and less need to leave cargo behind or shift it to other ports.

Booked strings are fine. Ad hoc sailings are not. Most liner services book their transits. The risk sits with extra loaders, tramp ships and any service that leans on the auction. Ask carriers directly whether the strings you use hold reservations.

Auction costs flow into surcharges. When a carrier pays millions to jump the line, that cost tends to come back to shippers. Check what Panama-related surcharges your contracts allow before peak-season cargo is booked.

Build buffer into East Coast delivery dates. For time-sensitive freight, keep the US West Coast plus rail option priced, so you can switch if the canal tightens again.

There is one more date to watch. On 5 October the ACP announced its long-term slot allocation programme, LoTSA, for the 2027 dry season. It lets customers reserve transits months ahead for 3 January to 3 April 2027. The neopanamax round, 270 slots or three daily transits, goes to sealed bids on 17 November. The Panamax pilot follows on 24 November. Carriers that win those slots get certainty through the driest months. Carriers that do not will depend on the daily booking system, whatever it offers by then. Forwarders should ask which group their carriers fall into.

What happens next

November is the month that decides the dry season. “Historically, it is the wettest month of the year in the Panama Canal Watershed,” the ACP said on 11 September. If it delivers, the lake refills and the canal can hold its current settings. If it does not, the lake starts the dry season low.
The forecasters are cautious. Luz Graciela de Calzadilla, director of Panama’s meteorological institute IMHPA, warned that forecasts point to a strong El Niño that “could initiate the start of the dry season in the second half of November”, according to the ACP. Steve Paton, director of physical monitoring at the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, said: “It is a year marked by uncertainty, due to a particularly intense El Niño that continues to strengthen.”
Put that together and the 15 October increase looks like a pause, not a recovery. The ACP is giving back capacity it can afford now, while it watches a lake that has gained less than a foot since early September.
Our call: the 33-slot schedule and the 49-foot draft hold through November. The quake will not cause a single lost transit. But unless November’s rain is strong, we expect the ACP to announce a new cut to draft or daily slots by the end of January 2027. Shippers on Asia to US East Coast lanes should plan their first-quarter contracts with that in mind.

Sources