Thursday, November 5, 2026
The news that moves freight
Ocean Nov 5, 2026 · 7 min read

ONE doubles its profit forecast, and budgets for falling rates

Tracker Red Sea and Hormuz: are ships going through? · 36 ships/day

ONE’s $2bn forecast is a bet on falling rates. Use it at the negotiating table

Ocean Network Express (ONE) raised its full-year net profit forecast from $900m to $2bn on 4 November. The Singapore-based carrier’s fiscal year runs from April 2026 to March 2027. The upgrade followed a July–September quarter in which it earned $1.318bn, up from $285m a year earlier, according to FreightWaves. WorldCargo News reported the new guidance at 07:52 UTC on 4 November.

On the surface, this is a carrier doing very well. Our reading is different. The forecast is more useful than the result, and it says the good times are fading. ONE is planning for falling freight rates over the next five months. Forwarders heading into 2027 contract talks should hold carriers to that.

What ONE reported

The second fiscal quarter, July to September, was the strongest of the year so far. FreightWaves gives the main figures:

  • Net profit of $1.318bn, against $285m a year earlier.
  • Revenue of about $6.27bn, up about 41%.
  • Liftings (containers loaded and carried) of 3.396m TEU (twenty-foot equivalent units), up 6.3% year on year.
  • An average freight rate of $1,709 per TEU, against $1,252 a year earlier.

That rate is a blended average across all ONE’s trades and its contract and spot business. Our calculation puts the rise at about 36%. Volume grew by just over 6%. Almost all the profit jump came from price, not from carrying more boxes.

For April to September, revenue reached $10.812bn and net profit $1.35bn, against $371m a year earlier, FreightWaves reports.

The speed of the change is striking. In the April–June quarter, ONE earned only $31m, down from $86m, which FreightWaves put down to higher fuel costs in its 4 August report. At that point ONE lifted its full-year forecast “sharply to $900 million from the prior $300 million guidance.” Three months later the forecast has more than doubled again. Breakbulk News notes that the July–September quarter accounts for about 98% of first-half profit.

Breakbulk News also sets the two quarters side by side. Revenue rose from $4.54bn in April–June to $6.27bn in July–September, about 38% in three months. The net margin (profit as a share of revenue) went from under 1% to about 21%. That is the swing a carrier gets when rates jump and most of its costs stay fixed. Every extra dollar of rate drops almost straight to profit.

It also works in reverse. The same fixed costs that turned a modest revenue rise into a more than forty-fold profit jump (from $31m to $1.318bn) will turn a modest revenue fall into a sharp profit drop. That is exactly what the new forecast describes. For forwarders, the lesson is that carrier profits move much faster than the rates you pay. A halving of carrier profit does not mean a halving of freight rates. It can come from a fall of a few hundred dollars a box.

CEO Till Ole Barrelet said: “The second quarter delivered a strong financial performance, contributing to a solid first half of FY2026.” He added: “Looking ahead, we will adapt our network in response to evolving conditions, with safety remaining our top priority.”

FreightWaves says trans-Pacific demand was helped by US inventory restocking and shipments of data centre and industrial equipment. Asia–Europe was weaker. Those routes “faced greater pricing pressure as available capacity increased.”

The number that matters: about $650m

Here is the part the headline skips. If ONE earned $1.35bn in the first half and expects $2bn for the year, the second half is worth about $650m. Breakbulk News calculates the implied figure at about $652m; the gap is rounding.

So ONE expects to earn in October–March roughly half of what it earned in April–September. Compare it with the last quarter alone. Six months of expected profit is less than half of what ONE made in the three months to September.

Revenue tells the same story from another angle. ONE raised its revenue forecast from $19.4bn to $21bn. With $10.812bn already booked, that leaves about $10.2bn for the second half. By our calculation, that is only around 6% less revenue than the first half, but about 52% less profit. A carrier’s costs (ships, fuel, terminals, crews) do not fall much when rates do. When revenue dips a little and profit halves, the plan assumes lower prices per box, not fewer boxes.

To be fair to ONE, the forecast is also cautious by design. It has now been raised twice from a $300m start, which suggests to us that management has been guiding low. But even a cautious forecast reflects what management expects. ONE is telling investors that the July–September level does not last.

What ONE says about rates

ONE’s outlook, as reported by FreightWaves, sets out its assumptions plainly:

  • Seasonal demand moderates and spot rates ease in the second half.
  • Rates stay above ONE’s previous forecast, with “a modest increase ahead of Chinese New Year.”
  • Current conditions in the Strait of Hormuz persist to the end of the fiscal year.
  • Suez transits recover gradually.

And the risk it flags: “A return of more services to the Suez route could increase available capacity and put further pressure on freight rates.”

That last line matters. Routing ships around the Cape of Good Hope instead of through the Suez Canal adds days to each Asia–Europe voyage. That ties up ships and reduces the capacity available each week. When services return to Suez, that hidden capacity comes back to the market. ONE is telling investors that this is the main threat to its numbers.

Spot rates remain high for now. Drewry’s World Container Index stood at $4,585 per 40ft container on 22 October, up 2% on the week. Shanghai to Rotterdam was $3,632, and Shanghai to Los Angeles $8,007. Drewry said “the outlook remains dependent on demand, capacity adjustments and developments in regional security.” That is the same set of variables ONE lists. The Asia–Europe rate was also lower than in August: Drewry had Shanghai to Rotterdam at $4,401 on 20 August.

What this means for forwarders

The 2027 contract season is approaching. Asia–Europe annual deals are typically negotiated around the turn of the year, and trans-Pacific deals in the spring. Carriers will arrive with record half-year profits and argue that rates must hold. Their own guidance says otherwise.

Our view is that forwarders and shippers should treat ONE’s outlook as evidence. Practically, that means:

  • Quote the carrier’s guidance back to it. If a carrier expects spot rates to ease and Suez capacity to return, a flat or rising contract rate is hard to justify. ONE’s statement is public and specific.
  • Keep contracts short or indexed on Asia–Europe. That is the lane where ONE already reports pricing pressure, and the lane most exposed to a Suez return. A deal linked to a spot index, or a shorter term, lets you benefit if rates fall.
  • Expect a pre-Chinese New Year bump, and plan around it. ONE expects a modest rise before the holiday, which falls on 6 February 2027. Book January cargo early, and do not treat a short spike as a new trend.
  • Watch Suez announcements closely. Each carrier that moves services back through the canal adds weekly capacity on Asia–Europe. That is the clearest signal that rates will drop further.
  • Do not assume a collapse. ONE still expects rates to stay above its earlier forecast, and it assumes Hormuz disruption continues. This is a softening, not a crash. Shippers who wait for 2023-level rates may end up waiting through the contract window.

The trans-Pacific looks more resilient for now, given the restocking demand FreightWaves describes. Forwarders with US-bound cargo have less leverage than those on Asia–Europe, at least until Suez capacity changes the global picture.

Our prediction

ONE’s guidance points to an average of roughly $325m a quarter for October to March. Some of that will come before Chinese New Year, so October–December is likely to be the stronger of the two quarters. Even so, the drop from July–September will be steep.

Our call: when ONE reports its October–December results in early February 2027, net profit will be below $660m, less than half of the $1.318bn it earned in July–September. We also expect Drewry’s Shanghai–Rotterdam spot rate to be below $3,632 per 40ft by the end of March 2027, once the pre-holiday rise has passed.

Sources

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