Sunday, November 1, 2026
The news that moves freight
Trucking & Rail Nov 1, 2026 · 8 min read

Russia keeps most diesel exports banned through January

Russia’s diesel stays behind a permit desk until February, and US truck fuel stays above $6

Russia has extended its general ban on diesel exports by producers to the end of January. Bloomberg reported the decision on 31 October, citing a government statement. The decree had not yet been published. Some diesel will still leave the country. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the government is preparing exemptions that let certain suppliers ship abroad. Under exemptions already in place, Russia exported about 510,000 tonnes of diesel in October. It plans about 2.15 million tonnes in November, Novak said.

Our view is simple. This is not a reopening of Russian diesel. It is a permit desk. Moscow decides, month by month and supplier by supplier, how much leaves. That makes Russian barrels a poor basis for any forwarder or shipper hoping for cheaper road freight this winter. We expect US truck fuel costs to stay where they are, above $6 a gallon, through November.

What Moscow actually decided

The ban covers producers, which means refiners. Russia first loosened the terms earlier in October. That came after President Trump said he was working with Vladimir Putin to return Russian diesel to world markets, according to the Bloomberg report carried by gCaptain. The October deal, agreed on 9 October, set out 300,000 tonnes at first, 500,000 tonnes in November and then 1 million tonnes a month, gCaptain reported separately.

The new extension keeps the general ban until February. The exemptions sit on top of it. Moscow is clear about its priority. The government statement said the decision was taken to maintain stability in the domestic fuel market, according to Bloomberg.

Novak also flagged a supply risk at home. Regular Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries may reduce export volumes, he said, though he added that the effect would not be significant.

By late October, four tankers had left Baltic ports carrying Russian diesel, Novak said, according to Bloomberg. That is a start. But those cargoes moved under exemptions that Moscow sets month by month.

Why the numbers stay high

Start with the US pump. The EIA (US Energy Information Administration) put the national on-highway diesel average at $6.352 a gallon for the week of 26 October. That was up 7.6 cents on the week and up $2.634 on a year earlier. The EIA weekly figure matters to freight because it is the benchmark most US truck fuel surcharges are tied to. FreightWaves calls it “the diesel price used for most fuel surcharges.”

The price has been heading the wrong way for anyone hoping for relief. EIA had the average at $6.199 for the week of 5 October and $6.179 in its 14 October release, according to Energy News Beat and FleetOwner. It is now back above $6.35. The record was $6.529, set on 21 September (EIA data via Energy News Beat).

Now look at what Russia can add. About 2.15 million tonnes in November is roughly 16 million barrels, or a little over half a million barrels a day, on our rough conversion of about 7.5 barrels a tonne. That is a world figure, not a US one. Russian diesel also goes to many other buyers. By comparison, global diesel exports in September were 700,000 barrels a day lower than a year earlier, according to the IEA (International Energy Agency), as reported by Energy News Beat. The IEA said the diesel market “will remain tight well into 2027.”

Europe shows how far there is still to fall. Diesel hit all-time highs of around $220 a barrel in Europe and the US in September, according to the IEA. European diesel margins, the gap between the diesel price and crude, then eased from about $100 a barrel to about $60 by early October (IEA, via Energy News Beat). That is lower, but the gap is still wide. In our view, Europe and the US are chasing the same spare cargoes, so any Russian barrels that do leave will be bid for on both sides of the Atlantic.

The US share is far smaller. The first Russian cargo publicly linked to a US port is the Malta-flagged tanker Agioi Fanendes, according to Oilprice.com. It loaded about 40,000 tonnes of ultra-low-sulphur diesel at Primorsk on 22 October and is due in New York on 7 November, gCaptain reported. Oilprice.com put that at about 300,000 barrels. gCaptain said the identities of the buyer and seller were not immediately known.

Analysts have said the same thing since the deal was announced. “In my opinion, there’s no impact, given it’s such a tiny amount in the big scheme of things,” Dean Croke of DAT Freight & Analytics told FleetOwner. Michael Lynch of the Energy Policy Research Foundation was blunter: “It’s kind of shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic.”

The legal fight on the US side

Even the small US flow is contested. The Treasury issued General License 135, which authorises Russian diesel transactions until 7 April 2027. Critics say it clashes with the Ending Importation of Russian Oil Act, a 2022 law that bars imports of Russian-origin petroleum products, including diesel.

On 24 October, a bipartisan group led by Senator Jeanne Shaheen wrote to six large banks and to port authorities in Houston, Beaumont, Corpus Christi and New York/New Jersey. They warned them against handling Russian diesel and asked them to keep records. The lawmakers contend that the administration cannot simply waive those statutory restrictions, gCaptain reported. The Treasury says the deal is legal. The White House says it is needed to ease energy costs.

On 27 October, Senator Richard Blumenthal wrote to the owner of the Agioi Fanendes, Greek company Eastern Mediterranean Maritime (EASTMED), asking it to recall the ship. “Reverse course while there’s still time,” he said in a statement. He asked EASTMED to reply by 31 October, naming the cargo’s seller, buyer, charterer and insurer.

The US midterm elections are on 3 November. Several of the Democrats who signed the letter could chair powerful committees if their party wins Congress, gCaptain noted. So the legal risk around these cargoes could grow, not shrink, after the vote.

One caution on reporting. A widely shared story that a second Russian diesel cargo would reach Norfolk on 2 November was retracted by gCaptain on 28 October. The ship’s operator said it carried liquid fertiliser. Treat any “Russian diesel arriving” headline with care until a cargo is confirmed.

What it means for forwarders and shippers

The supply that might have eased costs now sits behind two gates. Moscow can shrink exemptions. Washington’s courts, Congress or nervous banks can slow US imports. Neither gate is in a shipper’s control, and both can move within days.

For forwarders, this has four practical effects.

First, fuel surcharges stay high and keep moving. A fuel surcharge, or FSC, is the extra charge carriers add on top of the base rate to cover fuel. Most US truckload and LTL (less-than-truckload) FSC tables step up or down with the weekly EIA figure. At $6.35, those tables sit far above where they were a year ago, when the EIA average was about $3.72.

Second, Q1 quotes need a fuel basis. Price road legs off the current EIA level, not a hoped-for drop. Show the FSC as its own indexed line, tied to the weekly EIA figure, rather than building a fixed fuel number into an all-in rate. That protects the margin if diesel climbs, and keeps the customer onside if it falls.

Third, East Coast drayage and inland legs are the most exposed. The Agioi Fanendes is heading for New York. The ports warned by lawmakers include New York/New Jersey and three Gulf ports. Any local supply relief from Russian cargoes would show up there first, and so would any disruption if a cargo is blocked or held.

Fourth, do not read Russian volume targets as a price signal. A plan of 2.15 million tonnes for November is a ceiling set by Moscow, not a promise. October’s actual figure, about 510,000 tonnes, was far below that. Watch the monthly exemption figures as Russia publishes them, and the weekly EIA price every Monday.

Our call

The EIA’s own October outlook, published on 6 October, expected US diesel to average $5.79 a gallon in November, according to Energy News Beat. We think that is too low. The weekly figure has risen since, and the export ban extension removes the hope that Russian barrels might fill the gap before the year ends.

Our prediction: the EIA weekly diesel average stays above $6 a gallon through the end of November. DAT van linehaul, the truckload rate excluding fuel, holds above $2.20 a mile over the same period. The risk is to the upside. If Ukrainian strikes cut Russian refinery output, or Moscow trims the exemptions, diesel climbs again. If a court or the new Congress blocks US imports, the little Russian relief there is will vanish too.

Sources