Geopolitics Oct 18, 2026 · 8 min read

Hormuz: two claimed mine strikes, and the worst attack week of the war

Hormuz mines are a claim. The attack count is not. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard says two supertankers hit mines in Hormuz on 16 and 17 October. Neither ship has been named. The UK’s maritime security office (UKMTO) says at least 10 vessels were attacked in one week, the most of the war. In our view, the confirmed count matters more than the claims. The risk now covers the whole Gulf: two tankers were hit off Saudi Arabia’s Al Jubail, and a tug was hit off the UAE. Iran says it would reopen the strait “on the sixth day” if its terms are met. Our call: Gulf emergency surcharges stay in place through November.

Hormuz attacks hit a war high. A reopening, if it comes, will be slow
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) says two supertankers hit naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz within 24 hours. The first, it says, exploded and caught fire on Friday 16 October. The second was fully laden. The IRGC says it was carrying “more than 2 million barrels of crude oil” when a mine caused “a major explosion in the vessel’s engine room” on Saturday 17 October, according to Anadolu. The IRGC says the ship was left without propulsion.
Here is our view. The mine claims are not the story for freight. Nobody has named either ship. The story is the confirmed numbers. Attacks on shipping are at their highest level of the war, and they have spread well beyond the strait. Iran is now offering a reopening, but we think it will take weeks to turn into normal Gulf container service, not days.

What is confirmed and what is not

Start with what nobody has confirmed. The IRGC gave no names, flags, owners or crew details for either tanker, HNGN reports. Anadolu notes the IRGC “did not identify the vessel or provide information about its crew, casualties, or possible environmental damage.” As of Saturday night, neither US Central Command nor UKMTO (UK Maritime Trade Operations, the Royal Navy office that logs attacks on merchant ships) had confirmed either incident. HNGN adds that traders have learned to discount IRGC claims until a ship is named.
The IRGC’s own story has a political edge. It says both tankers had switched off their positioning and radar, and were using an “unauthorized” route rather than one Tehran approved. Iran International reports the IRGC also said this was done “with deception” by the US military. The IRGC Navy’s Saturday statement said “the consequence of defying Iranian regulations in the Strait of Hormuz is burning in the fire of trust in the terrorist U.S. army,” as quoted by HNGN. Washington disputes the premise. A US military official told HNGN the strait “is controlled by the United States and our regional partners, not Iran,” and blamed the rise in attacks on “desperation” inside the IRGC.
Now look at what is confirmed. UKMTO counted at least 10 vessels attacked in or near the strait in the seven days through Saturday, HNGN reports. That is the most in any week since the war began. CBS quotes UKMTO saying “23 attacks were recorded since the start of the month, almost double the average.” UKMTO also told CBS it was “struggling to accurately report” the true number, because most ships now refuse to report attacks. So the real number is likely higher.

The risk is now Gulf-wide

The bigger shift for forwarders is where the attacks are happening. UKMTO reported two tankers hit about 68 and 78 nautical miles northeast of Al Jubail, on Saudi Arabia’s Gulf coast, HNGN reports. One was struck by an unknown projectile, and its crew was evacuated and reported safe. CBS quotes UKMTO on the other: “The master of a tanker has reported being attacked by an RPG (rocket-propelled grenade) from a small boat.”
On Sunday 18 October, a tug sailing south off the UAE coast “reported being struck by 2 unknown projectiles,” according to UKMTO via CBS. “The tug has sustained damage but is continuing on its route,” UKMTO said.
Container ships are in the line of fire too. The US military says the container ship GFS Pride, which sank on Thursday while under tow, was hit by an IRGC projectile, not a mine as Tehran claimed, HNGN reports. Further south, HNGN says the Houthis have declared the Bab el-Mandeb closed to Saudi-flagged tankers.
In our view, this matters more than any single mine claim. A forwarder could once treat Hormuz as one gate to get through. Now Saudi coastal waters, UAE waters and the approaches to the main box ports are all in play. That changes how carriers price the whole region.

How much is still moving

The traffic numbers depend on who is counting. Straits.live, a tracking site, cites IMF PortWatch as recording 2 transits on 11 October, against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 a day. It also counted 172 vessels visible on AIS (the automatic identification system ships use to broadcast their position) holding position away from berth in its Gulf watch area on 17 October, excluding ships near working ports. UKMTO’s figures, as reported by HNGN, show more movement: 125 outbound and 129 inbound transits over the week, mostly dry bulk ships, product tankers and general cargo.
Part of the gap is that many ships now sail with AIS switched off. Either way, traffic is well below the 85-a-day baseline. A senior Iranian commander told HNGN that “traffic is very, very limited.” US warships have escorted tankers out of the Gulf in convoys, HNGN reports. Iran is still blocking unescorted traffic, and the US blockade of Iranian ports has largely kept Iran’s oil exports bottled up.
Oil has noticed. Straits.live put Brent crude at $109.86 on 17 October, up 3.72% on the session. HNGN says Brent closed the week higher, but well below its spring peak.

The price of moving a box

For forwarders, the cost shows up in two places: insurance and carrier surcharges.
War-risk insurance is extra cover that ship owners buy to sail through conflict zones. Before the war began on 28 February, Hormuz war-risk cover cost about 0.25% of a ship’s hull value, according to Insurance Business. In late August, the same outlet cited market estimates of 3% to 8% for Hormuz transits. It cited Marcus Baker of Marsh, the insurance broker, saying rates surged to between 3% and 10% within weeks of the first strikes. On a $150 million tanker, 10% is $15 million for one transit, Insurance Business calculated. “There was always and there remains sufficient capacity, with cover available for a price,” Neil Roberts of the Lloyd’s Market Association told the publication. “That price reflects the risk.”
Carriers pass that cost on. Container News reported in September that Maersk set an emergency freight rate of $1,800 per 20-foot dry container and $3,000 per 40-foot dry container. Reefer, special and dangerous goods boxes pay $3,800 per container. Ships that transit the strait pay an extra $1,000 per container. Back in June, The Loadstar reported that Hapag-Lloyd’s Middle East emergency surcharge reached $7,200 per 40-foot box from Mundra or Nhava Sheva to Kuwait, relayed via Salalah in Oman. Landbridges (moving cargo by truck or rail from ports outside the Gulf, such as Jeddah) had become “the new industry mantra”, it said.

What happened last time things eased

Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, made an offer on Sunday. “If they comply with our conditions, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen on the sixth day,” he said, as quoted by CBS. Talks would start on the seventh day. CBS reports that lifting the US blockade of Iranian ports is a condition. It says Iran’s earlier seven-day proposal also called for lifting oil sanctions and a ceasefire on all fronts.
Washington wants something different first. In an interview with Reuters on 5 October, reported by The Korea Times, Vice President JD Vance said Iran should “do something meaningful on their enrichment capacity.” He added: “We’re not going to trade words for actions.” President Trump has said he will not resume strikes on Iran before the 3 November election, and that the war will probably end “right after the midterms,” HNGN reports.
The track record is not good. Vance brokered a provisional peace agreement in September, which quickly collapsed, The Korea Times reports. Before that, war-risk premiums began retreating from their peaks after a ceasefire in June. Then three vessels were attacked in the first week of July, and rates ticked back up, Neil Roberts of the Lloyd’s Market Association told Insurance Business. Each pause has been short, and the insurance market reacts fast to the next attack.

What this means for forwarders

Our read is that the Gulf stays a premium, high-paperwork trade for the rest of the year. Expect war-risk clauses, emergency surcharges and landbridge options via Jeddah or Salalah to stay on every quote into Jebel Ali, Dammam, Hamad or Kuwait. Shippers with Gulf-bound cargo should get surcharge validity in writing. Contracts should spell out who pays if a carrier diverts or relays cargo mid-voyage.
If a deal does come, we think the “sixth day” will not mean normal service on the seventh. In our view, insurers will want proof the waterway is clear of mines before cutting rates. Carriers will want insurers to move first. And 172 ships holding position, plus whatever cargo is waiting at relay ports, will all try to move at once. That means a backlog at Gulf terminals and a scramble for space in the first weeks.
Forwarders should prepare now. Know which customers’ cargo is stuck at Salalah, Jeddah or Khor Fakkan. Know which bookings would switch back to direct calls. Have a priority list ready before the first carrier reopens bookings.
Our prediction: no major carrier withdraws its Gulf emergency surcharge before 30 November 2026. Even if a deal is agreed after the US election, we expect direct, unescorted container calls into Gulf ports to take at least four weeks from signing to return at scale.

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