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Ocean Nov 8, 2026 · 7 min read

LA/Long Beach watchmen deadline moves to 20 November

LA and Long Beach strike risk moves to 20 November. The 35,700-box rail queue matters more

The strike threat at the busiest container port complex in the United States has been pushed back two weeks, to Friday 20 November.

The Pacific Maritime Association (PMA) and ILWU Local 26 extended the watchmen’s contract while talks continue. The PMA is the employers’ group for the terminal operators and ocean carriers on the US West Coast. Local 26 is the branch of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union that represents about 250 watchmen at Los Angeles and Long Beach. JOC reported on 7 November that the two sides “negotiated late into Friday night ahead of the latest deadline of midnight PT.” The PMA said more talks are scheduled, according to Reuters.

This is the third time the deadline has moved. Bloomberg reported that talks were first extended from 1 November to 4 November, then to midnight on 6 November, and now to 20 November. No time of day has been published for the new deadline.

Our view is simple. The strike risk has not gone away, but it is getting smaller each time both sides choose another round of talks over a picket line. The delay forwarders can already measure at San Pedro Bay is not a strike. It is the queue of import boxes waiting for trains.

What is at stake on 20 November

The watchmen are a small group with a lot of leverage. Reuters describes their job: they control and inspect truck and employee entries at terminal gates, provide terminal security, and guard and track critical cargo. Local 26 is about 2% of the ILWU workforce at the two ports, according to FreightWaves.

The leverage comes from who else might stop work. The PMA has warned that dockworkers and marine clerks, who work under separate contracts and are not part of this dispute, are expected to stand with the watchmen if they strike (Bloomberg) and to honour Local 26 picket lines (FreightWaves). Honouring a picket line means refusing to cross it. If that happens, FreightWaves reported, vessel loading, container yards and truck gates could all be disrupted.

The PMA says a strike would hit terminals handling about 85% of Long Beach cargo and 33% of Los Angeles cargo (Reuters). Together, the two ports handle about a third of US seaborne containerised goods, according to Bloomberg.

The bigger West Coast deal is not in play. The main longshore contract covers about 22,000 workers at 29 ports and runs to 2028, FreightWaves reported.

Where the talks stand

Neither side has said much in public about the detail. The watchmen’s previous agreement expired in July 2025, and Local 26 authorised a strike after more than a year of bargaining (FreightWaves). The Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service, a US government agency that helps settle labour disputes, has been helping with the talks (Bloomberg).

The Long Beach Post, via LAist, reported on 29 October that wages and pensions are on the table. The PMA said then that it had “put a strong economic package on the table,” and that “significant differences remain.” The PMA’s latest line is that it “remains committed to reaching a fair agreement at the bargaining table” (Bloomberg via gCaptain).

The union has stayed quiet. Local 26 did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the extension, Reuters reported. Local 26 President Luisa Gratz did not respond to Bloomberg ahead of the previous deadline, according to Insurance Journal, which carried that Bloomberg report.

In our reading, a two-week extension is a signal in itself. The last two extensions were for three days and two days. This one is for 14 days. Parties who expect to walk out do not usually buy themselves two more weeks of talks. That is our interpretation, not a statement from either side.

The delay you can already measure: rail

While the strike deadline keeps moving, the rail backlog keeps growing. “On-dock rail” means loading import containers straight onto trains inside the terminal, for inland cities like Chicago, Dallas or Memphis. “Dwell” is how long a box sits at the terminal before it leaves.

FreightWaves reported that 35,688 import containers were waiting for on-dock trains on 26 October. Of those, 10,562 had been at the terminals for at least nine days. The split was uneven:

  • Los Angeles: 19,626 boxes waiting, 8,133 of them for nine days or more (41.4%).
  • Long Beach: 16,062 boxes waiting, 2,429 of them for nine days or more (15.1%).

Average dwell for rail-bound containers rose to 7.19 days in September from 6.75 days in August, FreightWaves reported. ICIS, citing Pacific Merchant Shipping Association data, had already called the 6.75-day level the highest in 12 months. Boxes leaving by local truck averaged 3.18 days in September, up from 2.95 days (FreightWaves).

The cause is volume. Both ports set all-time cargo records in September, Reuters reported, with holiday retail goods, AI data-centre equipment and auto parts in the mix. Long Beach handled 997,177 TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units, the standard container measure) that month, according to FreightWaves. A Union Pacific spokesperson said: “Strong international volumes have tightened rail car supply” (FreightWaves).

There are signs of help arriving. Port of Los Angeles executive director Gene Seroka said: “But in the past three weeks we’ve seen a six-, eight-, and tenfold increase in the westbound train assets coming our way.” (FreightWaves). That means more empty rail equipment heading west to load.

But the volume is not about to drop. Long Beach CEO Noel Hacegaba told Bloomberg: “We expect to be busy at least through the first month of the new year and possibly through the first quarter”.

This has happened before. In October 2024, CNBC reported that almost half of rail-bound containers at Los Angeles were waiting nine or more days to leave the port, and that rail dwell at Long Beach had reached seven days. Today’s Los Angeles figure, 41.4% at nine days or more, is not far off.

What it means for forwarders

Key strike plans to Friday 20 November. That is six days before Thanksgiving, which falls on 26 November this year. If there is a stoppage, it would land on the last full week of import flow before the holiday. Because no time of day has been published, plan as if the risk starts at the beginning of that day, not midnight.

Don’t pay to divert yet. In our view, moving cargo to Oakland, Seattle-Tacoma or East and Gulf Coast ports on strike fear alone is poor value with a deal or another extension the most likely outcome. Diversion makes sense only if a stoppage actually starts and drags on.

Know which terminal your box is at. The exposure is concentrated. About 85% of Long Beach cargo goes through affected terminals, against 33% at Los Angeles (PMA via Reuters). A box at a Los Angeles terminal outside the dispute is far less exposed to a picket line, but more exposed to the rail queue, where Los Angeles is clearly worse.

Treat rail as the live risk. If a box is bound for an inland rail ramp and is sitting past a week, ask whether a truck to a nearby transload warehouse (where goods are moved from a marine container into a domestic trailer or 53-foot box) is cheaper than waiting. Check free time, the days before storage and detention charges start, against the current dwell figures.

Expect late-night news. The last two decisions came late, close to a deadline. Have someone watching the PMA’s statements on the evening of 20 November, and a plan for the Monday after.

Tell shippers the honest picture. A strike is possible but, in our view, unlikely. Rail-bound cargo through San Pedro Bay is already taking about a week on terminal on average, and longer at Los Angeles. That should be in every delivery promise for late November and December.

Our call

Our prediction: a deal or another extension is announced before the 20 November deadline expires. If picket lines do go up, we expect no stoppage at the named terminals to last longer than 72 hours before 30 November. We also expect the rail backlog, not the strike, to be the main source of delay and extra charges at Los Angeles and Long Beach through the end of November.

Sources

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