J.B. Hunt opens the 2027 intermodal bid season asking for more

Rail is the last cheap leg of US inland freight. J.B. Hunt plans to reprice it in 2027
J.B. Hunt reported third-quarter revenue of $3.68bn on 15 October, up 20.4% on a year earlier. Operating income barely moved. It rose 1.8% to $247.1m. Diluted earnings per share were $1.82, against $1.76 a year ago (company release).
The headline number flatters the business. Fuel surcharge revenue was $670.8m, up from $385.6m. Strip fuel out and revenue rose 12.7%. In intermodal, the company’s biggest unit, revenue per load rose 10.8%. Without fuel it rose 2% (FreightWaves).
Intermodal means moving a container long distance by rail, with a truck at each end. It is usually cheaper than putting the same box on a truck for the whole trip. J.B. Hunt is one of the biggest names in it.
Our view: that 2% will not last. The truck-to-rail price gap is unusually wide. J.B. Hunt’s costs are rising. And it has told customers it wants more. The rail leg has been the cheap part of US inland freight in 2026. In our view it will be the next part to get expensive.

What J.B. Hunt said

The 2027 bid season is the round of annual contract tenders in which shippers set next year’s rates with carriers. It has started. On the earnings call, intermodal president Darren Field set out the timing. The company will “reprice or implement about 10% of the volume in the fourth quarter.” After that, “30% of the volume receives new pricing each of the first three quarters of the year” (Investing.com transcript).
Field was direct about what he wants. J.B. Hunt is “asking for larger rate increases certainly than what we’ve shown so far.” He said the company “realized low single-digit increases in pricing during the last bid season.” And: “our focus during the 2027 bid season is on repairing our margins.” He did not give a number. He said only that the rises are “more than what it has been.”
The reason is cost. Field pointed to “increased inflationary cost pressures in our business, primarily related to driver availability.” Chief financial officer Brad Delco said driver costs, claims and medical costs “impacted operating income by over $50 million versus the second quarter of this year.” Group medical costs alone were more than $16m of that.
The company had warned of this. In mid-September, at a Morgan Stanley conference, management said profits could fall 5% to 10% from Q2 to Q3. The shares dropped about 10% before the market opened on 16 September. Barclays cut its price target to $285 from $300. BofA cut its target to $302 from $340 (Stocktwits). FreightWaves says the stock fell 14% from that update to the close on 15 October. In the end, EPS of $1.82 beat analysts’ revised forecasts by one cent (FreightWaves). The shares closed at $235.31 on 15 October, then fell 2.47% after hours to $229.50 (Investing.com).
Field also signalled there is more volume to come. Loads rose 8.5% in the quarter (company release). “I don’t want the 8% volume growth in the third quarter to represent that that’s all we can do,” he said.

The gap between truck and rail

The strongest signal came from Spencer Frazier, who runs sales and marketing. He said the price gap between truckload and intermodal is “more than double what the historical norm is of, say, around 15%” (Investing.com transcript).
Put simply, rail is now much cheaper than truck. Usually it is about 15% cheaper. Now the gap is above 30%. That gives J.B. Hunt room to raise prices and still win freight from trucks.
C.H. Robinson, the freight broker, sees the same thing. Its October market update calls “the widening gap between truckload and intermodal pricing” “one of the most significant transportation trends of 2026.” It says intermodal “Pricing is expected to be steady to higher heading into 2027.” West Coast pricing is rising faster than most other regions.
Frazier also said shippers are paying for service, not just price: “reliability today is winning over the lowest rate.”

Trucking is tight, and it shows

J.B. Hunt’s other units show why rail looks cheap. Its asset-light truckload unit grew revenue per load 32.6% to $2,183, or 29% excluding fuel. Its brokerage unit, ICS, which arranges trucks it does not own, grew revenue per load 29.2% to $2,638. Brokerage revenue rose 57% to $433.8m (company release). FreightWaves notes brokerage booked “a second straight operating profit after 13 quarters in the red.”
Frazier summed it up: “Capacity remains constrained, operating costs continue to move higher.”
C.H. Robinson’s numbers point the same way. It forecasts dry van truckload costs per mile up 30% year on year in 2026 and another 10% in 2027. Refrigerated spot rates hit “a record $3.60 per mile during September,” it says. Carriers report “elevated tender rejections.” A tender rejection is when a contracted carrier turns down a load at the agreed rate. C.H. Robinson also says federal enforcement on commercial licences, visas and English-language proficiency is “expected to further reduce the available driver pool.”
The squeeze reaches J.B. Hunt’s own dedicated fleet. Dedicated revenue rose 11.1% to $960.2m. But operating income fell 21.6% to $81.7m. Its operating ratio, which is costs as a share of revenue, worsened by 360 basis points to 91.5% (company release; FreightWaves for the operating ratio). A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point.

At the ports: Houston shows where it bites

Drayage is the short truck move between a port or rail ramp and a warehouse. It is where tight trucking hits importers first.
The Loadstar reported on 15 October that there is no post-peak easing at US container gateways. Some importers have moved cargo from California to Houston. Houston’s loaded imports were up about 5% through August. Asia-origin volume rose nearly 12%. Dray rates in Houston were up 34% year on year, according to Drayrates, against an 18% national average.
Paul Brashier of ITS Logistics told The Loadstar that Houston dray rates had risen 40% over four months, “albeit from a low base.” The problem is not the terminals. “We’re not seeing a significant amount of dwell,” he said. Dwell is how long a box sits at the terminal before pickup. “It’s just not having enough trucking capacity,” he said. He also noted: “Houston is adding another [container] terminal. That speaks volumes to what they see on the horizon.”
The national picture is softer but heading the same way. The National Drayage Spot Market Index was up 9.8% year on year in early October, from 8.2% in late August. Descartes put US containerised imports up 10.3% in September (both via The Loadstar).
C.H. Robinson flags a related risk. “Localized chassis and container shortages are becoming more common in faster-growing markets,” it says. A chassis is the wheeled frame a container sits on for the road. It names New York/New Jersey, Baltimore, Chicago, Atlanta, Memphis and Charlotte among the pressure points.

What this means for forwarders

First, the inland leg is now the moving part of the US landed cost. Ocean rates get the attention. But a forwarder quoting door delivery to a US inland point should treat 2026 dray and rail rates as a floor, not a guide.
Second, shippers who moved freight from truck to rail to save money will keep saving money. A gap of more than 30% leaves room. But the saving will shrink as rail contracts reset. Any 2027 budget that assumes flat intermodal rates is, in our view, too low.
Third, the timing matters. Only about 10% of J.B. Hunt’s book reprices this quarter. The bulk moves in Q1 to Q3 2027. Forwarders running tenders for US importers now have a short window to lock rail capacity before the bigger rises land.
Fourth, service will beat price. J.B. Hunt says it will not chase volume at any cost. “We will not deploy capital simply to grow,” said Delco. Customers that bid only on the lowest rate risk losing capacity in a tight market.
Fifth, gateway choice is now a cost lever. Houston’s growth shows shippers will move ports. But a cheaper ocean leg can be eaten by a dray market up 34%. Forwarders should price the full door-to-door move, port by port.

Our call

Our prediction: when J.B. Hunt reports Q1 2027 results in mid-April, intermodal revenue per load excluding fuel will be up at least 4% year on year, double the 2% it showed this quarter. We also expect Houston dray rates to still be at least 20% above year-earlier levels at the end of December. Peak season will end. The driver shortage will not end with it.

Sources

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• J.B. Hunt via SEC — Third quarter 2026 earnings release (Form 8-K Ex. 99), 15 Oct 2026 \
• FreightWaves — First look: J.B. Hunt’s Q3 earnings, 15 Oct 2026 \
• Investing.com — Earnings call transcript: J.B. Hunt Q3 2026 revenue beats, stock slips after hours, 15 Oct 2026 \
• Stocktwits — J.B. Hunt warns near-term earnings will fall, 16 Sep 2026 \
• The Loadstar — No post-peak easing at US container gateways, despite drayage woes, 15 Oct 2026 \
• C.H. Robinson — Truckload freight market update, October 2026, 1 Oct 2026 \
• C.H. Robinson — Intermodal and U.S. ports freight market update, October 2026, 1 Oct 2026