Tuesday, October 20, 2026
The news that moves freight
Geopolitics Oct 12, 2026 · 9 min read

The Gulf’s back door is now in range

Tanker attacks reach the anchorages that let freight dodge Hormuz. A drone hit the tanker Petro Dolphin at Sohar anchorage in Oman on Sunday 11 October. Two Indian seafarers are missing (Marine Insight). Two days earlier a 302,000-tonne tanker was hit off Sharjah (Splash247). Our view: the ports that let cargo avoid the Strait of Hormuz are no longer safe ground. Fujairah, Khor Fakkan and Sohar have been taking diverted Gulf cargo (AGBI). Only 4 ships crossed Hormuz on 4 October, against 85 a day before the crisis (IMF PortWatch via straits.live). Our call: by mid-November, at least one major container line adds or raises a surcharge for Gulf of Oman ports.

The Hormuz workaround is now a target: what attacks at Sohar and Sharjah mean for Gulf freight
A drone struck the tanker Petro Dolphin at Sohar anchorage, off Oman, on Sunday 11 October. Eleven Indian seafarers were aboard, India’s shipping minister Sarbananda Sonowal said. Nine were rescued and two are missing (Marine Insight, 12 October). The local coast guard is leading the search.
It was not a one-off. Over three days, ships were hit at anchor off the UAE, outbound from the Strait of Hormuz, and off Oman. At the same time, a US fighter jet disabled a bulk carrier in the Gulf of Oman for running the US blockade of Iranian ports.
Our view is simple. The attacks have moved from the strait to the anchorages that freight has been using to avoid it. Fujairah, Khor Fakkan, Sohar and the anchorages off Sharjah and Ras Al Khaimah were the back door. That door is now in range. Forwarders should stop treating the UAE east coast and Oman as a safe bypass and start pricing them as part of the risk zone.

What happened, ship by ship

Gem No.2, Friday 9 October. The Panama-flagged VLCC (very large crude carrier) of 302,000 dwt, or deadweight tonnes, was hit by a projectile while anchored about 13 nautical miles west of Al Jazeera, UAE. A fire was put out (Splash247; gCaptain). Sonowal said it was hit by a drone at Sharjah anchorage and all 22 Indian crew were safe (Splash247). Splash247 reported that this followed another tanker attack off Qatar.
Valthera, weekend of 10–11 October. The Marshall Islands-flagged Suezmax tanker was hit on its port side by an unknown projectile while leaving the Strait of Hormuz. A fire broke out. All crew were reported safe (Marine Insight).
Ocean Molica, Saturday 10 October. US Central Command (CENTCOM) said a fighter jet struck the stern of this Panama-flagged bulker, also called Arika Sun, in the Gulf of Oman, disabling its propulsion with no crew hurt (Maritime Executive). It is a 70,000 dwt ship built in 1996, owned and run from Hong Kong. Pole Star tracking data suggests it anchored off Fujairah for weeks and tried to leave at least three times before (Maritime Executive).
Ras Al Khaimah, Saturday 10 October. UKMTO, the UK’s maritime trade security office, said shipmasters near Ras Al Khaimah received VHF radio messages telling them to leave their anchorages. The sender was not identified (gCaptain; Marine Insight).
Angola Prosperity and Petro Dolphin, Sunday 11 October. The Sinokor-operated VLCC Angola Prosperity was hit on its port side while outbound from Hormuz. It was damaged and all crew are safe (Marine Insight). Then came the drone strike at Sohar on Petro Dolphin.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards had warned that ships using routes Tehran considers unauthorised would face punishment it called “definitive” (Marine Insight). Splash247 reported that the Guards said they would pursue such ships anywhere in the region, not only in Hormuz. Iran also claimed a supertanker hit a naval mine. That has not been independently verified.

Why the anchorages matter more than the strait now

Hormuz is close to shut. IMF PortWatch counted 4 transits on 4 October, against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 a day (via the straits.live tracker, 12 October). The same tracker counted 131 ships visibly holding position in its Hormuz and Gulf watch box on 12 October.
With the strait largely closed, the trade found other routes. AGBI reported that cargo for the Gulf was being moved through Fujairah and Khor Fakkan in the UAE and Sohar and Salalah in Oman. It quoted Neil Dekker of Infospectrum: “There’s been an enormous shift of cargo to these other outlier ports.” AGBI also cited The Wall Street Journal: daily container moves at Jebel Ali fell from about 40,000 to 1,000 after the conflict began. DP World says Jebel Ali remains fully operational with no damage.
Container lines built their workarounds on that east coast. Maersk said some cargo booked for Khor Fakkan would instead be discharged at Fujairah and trucked under bond to Jebel Ali (Seatrade Maritime, 14 September). “Under bond” means the goods move through the UAE without paying duty until they reach their final customs point.
So the anchorages now being hit are where the workaround lives: Sharjah, Ras Al Khaimah and Sohar. Ships wait there for berths, swap cargo from ship to ship, and take on fuel. When they are no longer safe, the cost of the bypass goes up.

The blockade is the other half of the squeeze

The pressure is not only coming from Iran. The Ocean Molica strike shows the US blockade being enforced with force against dry cargo ships, not just tankers.
CENTCOM’s statement, as carried by Maritime Executive, said: “CENTCOM forces resumed America’s blockade against all ships entering or departing Iranian ports on July 14.” It added: “Four commercial vessels have been disabled and 135 ships have been turned around during three months of strict enforcement.” CENTCOM also said US forces had destroyed 10 tankers linked to the Revolutionary Guards’ shadow network. And it warned: “All mariners are advised to heed blockade warnings from CENTCOM forces.”
For forwarders, that turns vessel screening into a safety question as well as a compliance one. A ship with a recent Iranian call, or a long gap in its AIS signal (the automatic position beacon ships broadcast), can now be stopped by force. Cargo on such a ship faces long delays. It can also face general average, where cargo owners share the cost of saving a ship in trouble.

What the insurance market tells us

War-risk insurance is the extra cover a ship needs to enter a listed conflict zone. It is charged per voyage as a share of the hull’s value, and shippers end up paying for it through freight rates and surcharges.
Before the conflict, the extra premium for a Gulf transit was about 0.25% of a vessel’s insured value (Breakbulk News, 1 March). Insurance Business reported in late June that rates peaked at up to 10%, according to Dylan Saunders-Mortimer of Marsh, and that industry estimates put them at 3% to 8% of vessel value. On 26 August it gave the same 3% to 8% range as the current estimate. Cover is still there, but at a cost. “There was always and there remains sufficient capacity, with cover available for a price,” Neil Roberts of the Lloyd’s Market Association told Insurance Business. “That price reflects the risk.”
Our view: the price is set by where the attacks land. Until now, east-coast anchorages benefited from sitting outside the strait. This week’s strikes off Sharjah and Sohar remove that argument. We expect underwriters to treat waiting time at those anchorages as exposed time and to price it that way.
Freight costs are already high. Maersk’s Emergency Operational Cost Recovery Surcharge adds $500 per container on Gulf-bound contract bookings, except those from the Far East. It took effect for the UAE from 15 September, and for Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and Iraq from 17 September (Seatrade Maritime). Brent crude stood at $105.95 a barrel at 12:06 UTC on 12 October, up 1.17% over 24 hours, according to straits.live. That feeds through to bunker (ship fuel) costs.

We have seen this before, and it lasted

The last tanker war ran from 1984 to 1988, during the Iran-Iraq war. “Between 1984 and 1988, a total of 451 ships were hit in the Gulf,” wrote Alex Yacoubian for the US Institute of Peace’s Iran Primer. “More than 400 civilian sailors were killed.” Commercial shipping first fell by 25%, and the US ended up escorting 259 ships in 127 convoys over 14 months under Operation Earnest Will (Iran Primer).
The lesson for today: a tanker war that spreads to anchorages and side routes rarely ends in a few weeks. In the 1980s, trade did not stop. It got slower, more expensive and more dependent on escorts and insurance. Our view is that 2026 is following the same pattern.
There is also a crew angle. India is a major supplier of seafarers. Its foreign ministry called the attacks “deeply concerning and risk further aggravating an already volatile situation” (AP via The Federal). The UAE’s Anwar Gargash called for “joint Gulf action” and said “we are all targeted and that our security is indivisible” (AP via The Federal). If crew-supplying nations push back on manning ships headed into the Gulf, crewing becomes another bottleneck.

What forwarders should do now

  • Stop treating east-coast UAE and Oman ports as a safe bypass. Fujairah, Khor Fakkan and Sohar still work, but plan for anchorage delays and possible short-notice moves like the Ras Al Khaimah radio orders.
  • Read surcharge clauses before you quote. Contract bookings already carry Maersk’s $500 emergency charge. Make sure your customer contracts say who pays when the next one lands.
  • Screen vessels, not just cargo. Ask about recent port calls and AIS gaps on any ship chartered or booked out of Fujairah or the Gulf of Oman. The blockade is being enforced with weapons.
  • Pad transit times. Trucking under bond from Fujairah to Jebel Ali is now a normal leg. Build the extra days and costs into quotes rather than absorbing them.
  • Check your cargo insurance. Confirm whether policies cover war risks at anchor and on the inland leg, and whether general average is covered.

Our call

By 13 November 2026, at least one top-five container line will announce a new or higher surcharge aimed at Gulf of Oman ports such as Sohar, Fujairah or Khor Fakkan, citing security or insurance costs. We also expect Hormuz transits to stay below 20 a day on the IMF PortWatch count through the end of October. That is less than a quarter of the pre-crisis 85. If the attacks on east-coast anchorages continue at this week’s pace, the cost of the workaround will move closer to the cost of going through the strait.

Sources