Friday, October 30, 2026
The news that moves freight
Companies & Markets Oct 30, 2026 · 7 min read

COSCO’s Q3 profit jump

Long voyages paid COSCO 17.2bn yuan. Carriers won’t give that back in a hurry

COSCO Shipping Holdings said on Thursday 29 October that its third-quarter net income rose 81% to 17.2bn yuan, about $2.6bn. Bloomberg, reporting the filing, called it the company’s biggest earnings jump in two years.

This is one of the first major carriers to report the July to September quarter. Others will follow over the next few weeks. Our view is that COSCO has just shown the rest of the industry the payoff from long voyages and high spot rates. Carriers now have a clear financial reason to protect those rates. Forwarders hoping for a soft November or an easy 2027 contract season should plan for the opposite.

What drove the jump

Bloomberg’s report, carried by gCaptain, names transpacific sailings as the main driver of the gain. That is the Asia to North America trade.

The second factor is distance. Ships moving between Asia and Europe are still sailing round Africa’s Cape of Good Hope to avoid the Middle East. A longer route means each ship spends more days on each round trip. That soaks up capacity. Fewer ships are free to compete for cargo, and rates stay higher than they would otherwise be.

Briefs Finance summed it up in one line: “Cosco posted its biggest earnings jump in two years as disruptions to trade lanes tied up vessels for longer.”

Rates show it. Drewry’s World Container Index, a weekly average of spot prices for a 40ft container on main east-west lanes, stayed near a two-year high for most of the quarter, according to both Bloomberg and Briefs. Briefs reports that index is up 73 percent so far this year.

Bloomberg’s report gives no revenue or volume figures for COSCO’s quarter, so it is not clear how much came from price and how much from cargo. The headline number is profit.

Why the 81% flatters

An 81% rise sounds huge. It is partly a story about how bad last year was.

In Q3 2025, COSCO Shipping Holdings’ net profit attributable to shareholders fell 55.14% to 9.53bn yuan, Baird Maritime reported at the time. Operating revenue that quarter fell 20.42% to 58.5bn yuan. Baird quoted the company as “reporting a significant decline in profitability due to lower market freight rates.” FilingReader noted that the profit fall came even though COSCO’s container volumes for the first nine months of 2025 rose 6.01% to 20.18m TEU (twenty-foot equivalent units, the standard container measure).

Run the numbers forward. 9.53bn yuan plus 81% gives roughly 17.2bn yuan, which matches this year’s figure. Run them back, and our own arithmetic puts Q3 2024 profit at about 21bn yuan. On that basis, this quarter is still around a fifth below two years ago.

So this is a strong recovery from a slump, not a new peak. That matters. Carriers that remember 2024 will see room to push rates higher, not a reason to ease off.

It also shows how fast this business turns. In late October 2025, Drewry’s index stood at $1,822 per 40ft box and Drewry said “the uptrend is expected to be temporary,” according to MTS Insights. A year later, rates are up 73 percent on the year to date and profits have nearly doubled. Rates can move that much in twelve months, in either direction.

What the rest of the market is saying

COSCO is not alone. Bloomberg reports that analysts’ earnings estimates for A.P. Moller-Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have risen since July. Japan’s Nippon Yusen (NYK) raised its outlook on the same Thursday, above analyst expectations. Taiwan’s Evergreen Marine is set for its most profitable quarter since 2024 when it reports next month.

On the outlook, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Lindsay Chen expects container spot rates to stay near current levels. She sees transpacific rates anchored near post-pandemic highs amid “resilient US trade flows,” in Bloomberg’s words.

Briefs adds that if prices and transpacific demand hold, carriers with North American exposure could keep posting strong results. That is a fair reading. Most of the upside sits on the US lanes, and US demand is the thing to watch.

The terminal side: busy, but not richer

COSCO’s terminal company, COSCO Shipping Ports, released its own Q3 figures the same week. They add a useful angle.

Total throughput, meaning all containers handled at its terminals, rose 8.4% to 42,266,553 TEU in the three months to 30 September. Equity throughput, its share based on ownership stakes, rose 8.1% to 12,884,563 TEU. Revenue rose 13.0% to $484.3m.

Profit attributable to shareholders barely moved. It rose 0.1% to $82.6m. Busier terminals did not turn into a bigger bottom line this quarter.

The split by region is the bigger story. Terminals in China handled 30.9m TEU, up 4.9%. Overseas terminals handled 11.3m TEU, up 19.4%. Piraeus in Greece rose 11.4% to 1,090,284 TEU. Chancay in Peru, a newer terminal, rose 24.9% to 139,669 TEU. Overseas now makes up 26.8% of total throughput.

The company credited “its global layout and prudent operations” for the quarter. In plain terms, growth is coming from outside China. That fits a trade pattern where more cargo is being moved, transshipped or reorganised through hubs abroad.

What it means for forwarders

Start with November. Carriers file GRIs (general rate increases) and FAK rates (freight all kinds, the standard spot tariffs) for the month. A quarter like this gives sales teams cover to push those increases and to let fewer of them slip. Expect less flexibility on spot quotes into December.

Next, 2027 contracts. Annual transpacific tenders mostly settle in spring, but the positioning starts now. Carriers holding fresh profit numbers and analyst forecasts of steady rates will open high. Shippers that waited for a fall in 2026 have not had one. Forwarders should tell clients plainly that a soft 2027 contract round is not the base case.

Third, capacity. As long as Asia to Europe ships keep going round the Cape, effective capacity stays tight. Watch the Suez Canal. Drewry counted 62 transits last week, its highest weekly level this year. A full return of Asia to Europe services would release ships quickly and is the single biggest risk to today’s rate levels.

Fourth, routing. The ports data shows volume growing much faster at overseas terminals than in China. Forwarders with transshipment cargo through Piraeus, the Middle East or Latin America should expect those hubs to stay busy and plan buffer time.

Finally, the risk Bloomberg Intelligence points to: US demand. The transpacific is what made this quarter. If US imports soften after the peak season, that is where rates will crack first.

In practice, that suggests a few steps for the next six weeks. Get carrier space commitments for December and January sailings in writing, not just verbal holds. Price spot quotes to clients with a shorter validity window, so a mid-month increase does not land on your margin. Where clients are weighing a short-term contract against staying on spot, show them both sides with numbers. A year ago, staying on spot looked smart. This year it has cost them.

What could prove us wrong

Three things would change this view.

The first is a reopening of the Suez route at scale. If carriers send Asia to Europe ships back through the Red Sea, the extra sailing days disappear. Capacity that has been tied up comes back on the market at once. Rates on Asia to Europe would fall first, and the transpacific would feel it as carriers move ships around.

The second is a drop in US imports. Lindsay Chen’s outlook depends on US trade flows staying resilient. A weak holiday season, or a new tariff move that pulls cargo forward and then leaves a gap, would hit the transpacific hardest.

The third is the carriers themselves. When profits rise, lines tend to chase market share. If one big carrier decides to fill ships at lower prices in the slack weeks after the peak season, others usually follow. Last year showed how fast earnings can turn when rates slip: COSCO’s Q3 2025 profit fell 55% on lower freight rates, even as its nine-month volumes grew.

None of these look likely to bite before the end of the year. They are the things to watch in the first quarter of 2027.

Our call

We think carriers will hold rates firm through the end of the year. We expect COSCO’s Q4 2026 net income, due with its annual results around the end of March 2027, to come in below Q3’s 17.2bn yuan as seasonal demand eases. But we expect it to stay above Q4 2025. And we expect Drewry’s World Container Index to still show a year-to-date gain of more than 50% at its last reading of 2026.

Sources