Thursday, November 5, 2026
The news that moves freight
Trade & Customs Nov 5, 2026 · 8 min read

Democrats win Congress; tariff rates don’t move

Democrats now hold Congress. Your customers’ duty bill does not change.

Democrats won control of both chambers of the US Congress in the 3 November midterms. Al Jazeera put the party’s Senate total at 54 of 100 seats on Wednesday, with leads in two more races. In the House, Euronews counted 228 Democratic seats by 10:05 CET on Wednesday, against 139 for Republicans, with dozens of races still to be called. A House majority needs 218. Democrats took seven Senate seats from Republicans, Euronews reported, including Texas, Ohio, Kansas and Maine.

That is a big political result. For anyone moving goods into the US, it changed nothing on Wednesday. No duty rate moved. No tariff list changed. No effective date shifted.

Our view is simple. When customers ask whether tariffs are coming down now, the honest answer is no. Not this year, and probably not by spring. What has changed is the pressure on the White House, and that matters for how you plan, not for what you quote today.

Why the vote doesn’t touch the rates

The first reason is timing. The new Congress has not started yet. Al Jazeera reports that the Democratic Senate majority “will not take control of the Senate until January 3.” Canada’s trade minister, Dominic LeBlanc, made the same point on Wednesday: the newly elected members “won’t be seated until January,” Buffalo Toronto Public Media reported. Until then, the current Congress and the current administration run trade policy.

The second reason is the veto. Al Jazeera notes that a presidential veto “can only be overcome by a two-thirds supermajority in both the House and Senate,” and says Democrats have no two-thirds majority. Euronews reports that Trump “made clear he would use his veto to block the Democrats’ agenda.” CTV, via BNN Bloomberg, reported that he posted what appears to be an AI-generated image of a red MAGA-style hat with the word changed to “veto.”

The third reason matters most. Most of today’s tariffs never needed Congress. The Supreme Court struck down the emergency tariffs, issued under IEEPA (the International Emergency Economic Powers Act), in February. Euronews reports the administration then moved them under Section 301 of US trade law, which lets the president act without a vote by lawmakers. Section 232 (national security) duties on steel, aluminium and autos work the same way. So does Section 338, a 1930 law now used for the Canada duties.

James Smith of ING put it in one line, quoted by Euronews: “Like foreign policy, trade is another power the president can wield unilaterally without Congress.”

Josh Lipsky of the Atlantic Council was just as blunt: “Tariffs, meanwhile, are not likely to change.” He added: “But Trump will reject any attempt to limit the use of his favorite tool.”

The White House left no doubt either. Spokesperson Matthew Middleton said “President Trump will never waver from putting Americans and America First, whether in trade negotiations,” CTV reported via BNN Bloomberg. Trump himself said of the result, per Euronews: “I don’t view it as a hit on me.”

What Democrats will try anyway

Democrats are not going to sit still. Lipsky writes that they are “planning a hundred-hour legislative blitz in January,” which includes rolling back tariffs, “which, based on exit polls, were among the least popular policies.” He adds: “The markets assume Trump will veto the full package.”

Representative Jamie Raskin was direct: “We’re going to put an end to these tariffs.” He also said: “Congress controls taxes and tariffs under the Constitution.” Buffalo Toronto Public Media reports he hopes Democrats will act on tariffs within the first 100 days.

Jörn Fleck of the Atlantic Council expects the new majority to “claw back trade and tariff powers that Congress has ceded to the executive branch.” But he adds: “Trump has stated a willingness to use his veto, and hard limits on the president’s power are unlikely.”

There is a recent test of how this plays out. In February this year, the House voted 219–211 for a resolution to end the Canada tariffs, investingLive reported, with six Republicans joining Democrats. It did not lift a single duty. A House vote alone cannot. The measure still needed the Senate, and then it faced a veto that two-thirds of each chamber would have to override.

A bigger majority makes that route easier, not easy. Moving from 219 votes to two-thirds of the House means finding about 290. In the Senate, 54 seats is still 13 short of 67. On these numbers, override needs dozens of Republicans to break with their president on his signature policy.

What a Democratic Congress can do is make noise that matters. Committee hearings, investigations and scrutiny of how the IEEPA tariff money gets refunded are all within reach. Al Jazeera notes that whether the government must return tariff money already collected, and how much, is still in dispute. Al Jazeera also says a Democratic Congress “could push for exceptions” giving exporters temporary relief. That is a suggestion, not a plan anyone has filed.

Canada and Mexico: the deals didn’t land

Cross-border shippers had a second hope going into the vote: that deals with Canada or Mexico would arrive around the election. Neither did.

Mexico’s economy secretary, Marcelo Ebrard, said on 4 November that the new Congress will not automatically change tariffs. “Las facultades sobre aranceles corresponden o las tiene en buena medida el presidente, o sea, eso no cambia,” he said, per Tribuna. That means: tariff powers belong largely to the president, so that doesn’t change. On the trade pact, he said: “El tratado puede ser que sí cambie, pero eso es muy pronto para podértelo decir.” The treaty may well change, but it is too early to say. The fourth round of talks, pushed back until after the election, still has no date, Tribuna reports.

Latin Times reports that both governments had looked at a bilateral deal before 3 November, but no announcement came. President Claudia Sheinbaum pointed to progress on non-tariff barriers. But no agreement yet covers relief from Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminium and autos. Goods that meet USMCA rules of origin (the regional content rules in the US-Mexico-Canada trade deal) still enter duty-free. Goods that don’t still pay an extra 10%.

In Canada, LeBlanc said: “Our focus hasn’t changed.” Prime Minister Mark Carney said of the talks: “They’re asking less and they’re offering more, but we’re not quite there,” BNN Bloomberg reported. Ontario Premier Doug Ford said he was “doing cartwheels down the street” and called a tariff on Canada “nothing more than a tax on the American people.”

The Canada duties stay where they are. Under CBP’s CSMS message 70314289, from 12:01 a.m. Eastern on 30 October, listed Canadian goods carry a “50% additional ad valorem rate of duty.” Ad valorem means a percentage of the goods’ value. CBP removed 22 tariff lines from the 50% list and said 100 more would fall under it. Steel, aluminium, copper, certain vehicles and parts, wood, semiconductors and patented drugs sit in a separate heading, 9903.03.15, at 0% under this action. Other duties on those goods still apply.

Trump has also threatened more tariffs on Canada in January if no deal is reached, Buffalo Toronto Public Media reports.

What forwarders should do now

Quote landed costs on today’s rates. Treat “post-midterm relief” as unpriced. If a customer wants to hold stock in a bonded warehouse waiting for a cut, tell them storage costs are certain and relief is not.

Keep classifying Canadian goods against the 30 October Section 338 list. A line that moved on or off that list changes the bill by half the goods’ value. Check every Canadian entry against the new list, not last month’s.

Plan for a busy December on the Canada border. A January tariff threat, with no deal and no relief from Congress before then, gives Canadian buyers and sellers a reason to move goods early. Book truck and rail capacity ahead of the holidays.

For Mexico, check USMCA rules of origin. The 10% gap between compliant and non-compliant goods is the one lever shippers control. A certificate fixed now saves money whatever happens in Washington.

Watch three things in January. First, whether the Democratic tariff bill passes both chambers and how many Republicans sign on. Second, any hearings on IEEPA refunds, which affect cash owed to importers. Third, whether the White House uses January to push Canada and Mexico into deals before Congress builds momentum.

Markets took the result calmly. On Wednesday morning the Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.8%, the euro gained 0.5% to $1.1247, and the US 10-year Treasury yield fell 3.7 basis points to 4.93%, Euronews reported. Brent crude traded near $104 a barrel. None of that is a tariff signal.

Our call

The new facts change one part of our view. With Democrats now holding both chambers, and planning a January push, a tariff-repeal bill may well reach the president’s desk in early 2027. So the test is no longer whether a bill gets there. It is whether any repeal becomes law.

Our prediction: no tariff repeal becomes law by 31 March 2027. Trump vetoes whatever arrives, and the veto stands. The overall US duty stack will be the same or higher on 31 March 2027 than it is today. If anything lowers it before then, our bet is a court ruling or a White House deal with Canada or Mexico, not a vote in Congress.

Sources

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