Sunday, November 1, 2026
The news that moves freight
Ocean Nov 1, 2026 · 7 min read

Record autumn capacity is late ships, not new ones

Late ships are flooding November, and carriers’ price rises will not hold

Asia to the US West Coast is carrying more container capacity than at any point on Sea-Intelligence’s record. The analyst puts average weekly deployed capacity at nearly 393,000 TEU in October. TEU means twenty-foot equivalent unit, the standard container measure. It projects about 400,000 TEU a week in November. Asia–North Europe is above 350,000 TEU a week. Asia–Mediterranean is above 260,000. Sea-Intelligence says each is the highest October–November level in its 2012–2025 comparison.

Our view: this is not a wave of new ships or new services. It is ships that should have sailed in the summer, turning up late and all at once. That has two effects that matter to forwarders. It weakens the price rises carriers want for November. And it puts more boxes onto terminals, trucks and rail in the same few weeks.

What Sea-Intelligence found

The figures come from Sea-Intelligence’s Sunday Spotlight, issue 788, published on 29 October. Container News reported them on 31 October.

The normal pattern is clear. After China’s Golden Week holiday in early October, carriers usually trim capacity into the year end. Demand eases after the peak season, so they deploy fewer ships.

This year the opposite happened. Container News wrote that “average weekly deployed capacity in October and November 2026 has accelerated dramatically”. It described the market as “operating in an environment of unprecedented supply”.

The East Coast shows how sudden the change was. According to Container News, Asia–North America East Coast “was largely in line with historical years up until August 2026”. Sea-Intelligence says its October and November levels are now the highest of any year.

On Asia–Europe, the jump comes on top of a 2025 base that was already high. Sea-Intelligence notes that capacity on these lanes was raised all year by the Red Sea crisis, which forces ships on the longer route around Africa.

Why this is bunching, not new supply

Sea-Intelligence’s explanation is vessel bunching. Bunching happens when ships run so late that delayed sailings and on-time sailings land in the same weeks. On paper, more capacity shows up in those weeks. In reality, the same fleet is simply arriving out of order.

Container News put it plainly: “This is a direct symptom of severe vessel bunching”. Sea-Intelligence links it to port congestion and unreliable schedules in Asia. Ships meant to leave in the third quarter were badly delayed. Those delays then rolled into October and November.

The schedule data backs this up. Sea-Intelligence measures schedule reliability, the share of ships that arrive on time. In September only 50.6% of ships arrived on time, according to its Global Liner Performance report published on 28 October. That was a gain of just 0.9 points on the month. Late ships were 6.65 days behind on average. None of the 13 biggest carriers was more reliable than a year earlier. Maersk was the best of them at 64.8%. Wan Hai was the worst at 26.7%.

August was worse. FreshPlaza, reporting Sea-Intelligence data on 30 September, put August reliability at 49.9%, the lowest since September 2022. Late ships that month averaged 6.81 days behind, the highest since March 2022. Those August and September delays are the ships now arriving in the October and November weeks. The small September gain is not enough to unwind them quickly.

When half the fleet is late by nearly a week, bunching is the expected result. Our view is that the record capacity figure is mostly a measure of that disorder, not of carriers adding ships.

That matters for what comes next. Bunched capacity is temporary. Once the backlog of late ships clears, the weeks after can look thin. Carriers can also cancel sailings, known as blank sailings, to rebalance. So the shipper does not get a lasting surplus. They get a flood now and possible gaps later.

What rates are doing

The flood is arriving just as carriers try to raise prices for November. On the transpacific, it is already losing that fight.

Drewry’s World Container Index, a weekly composite of spot rates on major lanes, fell 3% to $4,429 per 40ft container on 29 October. That ended two weeks of increases.

The transpacific led the drop. Shanghai–Los Angeles fell 6% to $7,514 per 40ft. Shanghai–New York fell 5% to $9,631. Drewry’s outlook for the lane was one line: “Hence, Drewry expects rates to decrease next week.”

Demand is not coming to the rescue. Drewry cites a National Retail Federation forecast that US ocean imports will fall 11% from October to November.

Carriers are fighting back with blank sailings. Drewry counts six cancelled transpacific sailings for next week, up from five this week. It reads that as a sign of tight capacity. Our view: six blanks will not offset a bunch on this scale. When nearly 400,000 TEU a week is scheduled to land on the West Coast, a handful of cancellations trims the edge, not the bulk.

Asia–Europe is steadier for now. Shanghai–Rotterdam rose 1% to $3,686 per 40ft. Shanghai–Genoa held at $4,151. Drewry expects rates to stay stable next week. Carriers have announced higher November FAK rates on the lane. FAK means freight all kinds, the standard tariff rate for general cargo. Drewry says it is unsure those increases will stick, given the capacity on offer and weak demand. Blank sailings on Asia–Europe are falling, from eight this week to four next week. Fewer cancellations means more ships actually sailing.

The congestion bill

Bunching does not only hit price. It also hits the landside.

When several late ships arrive with on-time ones, terminals have to work far more boxes in the same window. Yard space fills up. Truck appointments get scarce. Rail ramps back up. That is when demurrage and detention charges start to stack up. Demurrage is the fee for leaving a box at the terminal too long. Detention is the fee for keeping the carrier’s container too long outside it.

The US West Coast faces an added risk. ILWU Local 26, the union for about 250 port watchmen at Los Angeles and Long Beach, has warned it could strike. The original 1 November deadline has been pushed back: on 30 October the two sides signed an extension through 5pm Pacific on Wednesday 4 November, gCaptain reported. The union’s notice lists eight terminal locations. The Pacific Maritime Association (PMA), which bargains for employers, says the affected terminals handle about 85% of Long Beach’s cargo and 33% of Los Angeles’ cargo. PMA does not expect other ILWU members to cross picket lines.

The Maritime Executive, also reporting on 27 October, said a strike could affect about half of the facilities at the twin ports. It noted the terminals are busier than they have ever been, with holiday shipments still flooding in. PMA said “significant differences” remain, even after federal mediation.

Local 26 President Luisa Gratz wrote that “nothing of value has resulted from the Union’s commitment to bargaining in good faith”. PMA says it “remains committed to reaching a fair agreement with ILWU Local 26 at the bargaining table” and will keep talking past the deadline if needed.

Our view: even a short stoppage would land at the worst moment. A bunch of late ships needs terminals running at full speed. Any lost shifts would push waiting times and storage charges up fast.

What forwarders should do now

Our view on practical steps for November:

  • Push back on November rate increases on the transpacific. Quote spot business on short validity, a week or two, not the whole month. The index is moving down, and carriers have less leverage while their own late ships fill the market.
  • On Asia–Europe, treat the new FAK levels as an opening offer. Drewry itself doubts they will hold.
  • Plan for landside delay, especially at Los Angeles and Long Beach. Book trucks and rail early. Check free time at the terminal and push for extensions where ships arrive late.
  • Watch December closely. Once the bunch clears, carriers may blank more sailings. Space could tighten quickly.
  • Warn shippers that late arrival dates are likely to persist. With half of ships late in September, transit times on quotes should carry a buffer.

Our call

We think the transpacific spot market will keep falling through November as the bunched capacity lands. Our specific call: Drewry’s Shanghai–Los Angeles rate will be below $7,000 per 40ft container by its last November assessment. That is a fall of more than 6.8% from the $7,514 published on 29 October. We expect Shanghai–Rotterdam to stay below $4,000 per 40ft through November, despite the announced FAK increases.

Sources