Wednesday, November 11, 2026
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Trucking & Rail Nov 11, 2026 · 8 min read

US truck spot rates hit 2022 highs while diesel falls

Tracker Air cargo rates · 3.93 USD/kg

Fewer loads, a dollar more a mile: truck supply, not demand, now sets US rates

The average US dry van spot rate rose to $3.05 a mile in October. That is the highest monthly average since February 2022, according to DAT data released on 10 November. A dry van is the standard enclosed trailer. The spot rate is what a shipper or broker pays for a one-off load on the open market. It is 98 cents higher than a year ago.

Contract rates, the prices agreed with shippers for months at a time, moved too. DAT’s van contract rate rose 4 cents to $3.28 a mile. That equals the record set in May 2022.

Our view is simple. This is a market short of trucks, not one flooded with freight. Volumes are lower than last year, yet rates are about a dollar a mile higher. Cheaper diesel this week will not fix that. Forwarders should plan for record inland trucking costs through the winter and into 2027 contract season.

Fewer loads, higher prices

The DAT figures show how unusual this is. In a normal upswing, rates rise because more freight chases the same trucks. This time, freight is flat to down.

DAT’s Truckload Volume Index tracks truckloads moved on hauls of 250 miles or more in the US and Canada. In October the van index was 254. That is down 1% on September and 2% on a year ago. The reefer index, for refrigerated trailers, was 184, up 1% on the month but down 9% on the year. The flatbed index, for open trailers carrying steel, machinery and building materials, was 298. That is down 1% on the month and 7% on the year.

Rates went the other way. The reefer spot rate was $3.60 a mile, up $1.12 on the year. Flatbed spot was $3.61, up $1.10. Reefer contract rates hit a record $3.62 for the second month in a row. Flatbed contract hit a record $4.05 for the third month running.

Dean Croke, DAT’s principal industry analyst, put it plainly. “Brokers moved fewer loads than a year ago and paid carriers about a dollar a mile more to move them last month,” he said.

He also explained where the trucks went. “Equipment posts on DAT One are running about 22% to 26% below last year depending on the equipment type,” Croke said. Equipment posts are carriers advertising empty trucks on DAT’s load board. Fewer posts means fewer trucks looking for work.

Croke added that “carriers are heading into the holiday freight season in a position to be selective and negotiate better rates.”

This did not start in October. In August, Heavy Duty Trucking reported Croke saying that “we haven’t seen a capacity-driven market quite like this one.” FTR’s Avery Vise said then: “We expect the market to be favorable for carriers throughout our two-year forecast horizon.” ACT Research linked the shrinkage to a contraction in driver supply, stricter enforcement of electronic logging and hours-of-service rules, and new carrier registration requirements.

Carriers are still saying no

The second sign of a tight market is how often carriers refuse contract work. When a shipper sends a load to a carrier under contract, that is a tender. When the carrier turns it down, that is a tender rejection. The shipper then moves down its routing guide, the ranked list of backup carriers, or goes to the spot market.

FreightWaves SONAR data, reported on 10 November, puts truckload tender rejections near 12.8%. That is roughly double the 6% at the same point last year. In plain terms, carriers are turning down about one contract load in eight.

Reefer is worse. Reefer tender rejections are running at 21%, against 12.6% a year ago, according to the same report. That is one in five refrigerated loads, ahead of Thanksgiving food shipping and the winter produce season.

There is a twist. The rejection rate has slipped only about one point in 20 days, and FreightWaves analysts say the usual pre-peak tightening is missing. Julie Van de Kamp, a FreightWaves analyst, said she would like to see more pressure as a sign of strength for 2027. “We’re not seeing it yet,” she said.

Meanwhile, FreightWaves’ Craig Fuller pointed to demand on his own measure. “We are seeing 12% more demand this year than last November, and we’re up about 3% from October,” he said. November’s Outbound Tender Volume Index, which counts shipper tender requests, is averaging 11,434.

That looks like it clashes with DAT’s falling volumes. In our view, it mostly does not. The tender index counts requests, and when carriers reject loads, shippers send the same load out again. High rejections can push the request count up without more freight moving. DAT counts loads that actually moved. Both point to the same thing: shippers are working harder to get each load covered.

Flatbed may have the longest run. FreightWaves reported that C.H. Robinson’s 2026 flatbed cost-per-mile forecast is up 28% year on year, with another 10% projected for 2027. Fuller cited the company’s earnings commentary for those figures.

Diesel falls, but only a little help

The one piece of good news is fuel. The DOE/EIA weekly average retail diesel price fell 16.5 cents to $6.127 a gallon. The figure is dated Monday 9 November and was published on Tuesday 10 November, FreightWaves reported. It is the second straight weekly fall and the lowest level since 12 October. The record was $6.529 on 22 September.

This matters because most fuel surcharges are tied to that weekly number. A fuel surcharge, or FSC, is the extra charge per mile that covers diesel above a base price. DAT estimated the October van fuel surcharge at 83 cents a mile, down a cent from September’s record. DAT put the October national average diesel price at about $6.25 a gallon, about $2.60 higher than a year earlier.

Futures point lower still. CME ultra-low sulphur diesel futures settled at $4.4216 a gallon at the start of November and $4.2148 on 9 November. They were trading near $4.1409 on Tuesday morning, according to FreightWaves.

Traders are betting on less US military action against Iran after the Democratic election wins. Amrita Sen, director of market intelligence at Energy Aspects, told Bloomberg Television, as reported by FreightWaves: “People were positioning for an imminent strike.” She added: “When that didn’t happen, you definitely started to see the selloff.”

Not everyone thinks the fall will last. A Bank of America team led by Francisco Blanch described a market that “has successfully absorbed an enormous physical shock so far,” but with less protection against the next one. John Kingston, FreightWaves’ energy markets reporter, said: “I just don’t think we’re done here.”

The US government’s own forecast has gone up, not down. The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook, released on 10 November, now puts the 2027 average retail diesel price at $5.03 a gallon. The previous forecast was $4.49. That is still well below today’s $6.127.

Here is what the drop is worth. Many surcharge tables assume about 6 miles per gallon. On that basis, our estimate is that a 16.5-cent fall cuts the surcharge by under 3 cents a mile. That is small next to a spot rate that is 98 cents higher than last year. DAT’s own linehaul figure, which strips out fuel, makes the same point. The van spot linehaul rate rose 5 cents in October to $2.22 a mile, even as fuel eased.

What this means for forwarders

For a forwarder, the trucking leg is often the part of an import move you control least. Here is how we see the next few months.

Inland legs will cost more. Drayage from the port is only the first mile. The truckload move from a port or a transload warehouse inland is priced off the same tight market. Quotes that rely on last year’s contract rates will lose money.

Routing guides will break more often. With one in eight contract loads rejected, and one in five for reefer, expect more loads to fall to the spot market. Budget for spot exposure on time-sensitive and refrigerated freight, especially around Thanksgiving and the December holidays.

Contract renewals will start from records. Shippers that bid early in 2027 will face carriers who have set records on contract rates for months. Do not expect the diesel fall to soften those talks. Carriers will point to linehaul, which excludes fuel, and that is still rising.

Push for the lower fuel surcharge. The DOE number fell this week, and many invoices should reflect it from now on. Check drayage and truckload bills to make sure the new rate is applied.

Watch flatbed if you move project cargo. FreightWaves says AI data centre construction and industrial activity are keeping flatbed rates at a premium. If C.H. Robinson’s numbers hold, flatbed costs will rise again next year.

Our prediction

We expect the SONAR van contract rate to still be above $2.80 a mile at the end of January 2027. October’s DAT data makes us more confident in that call, not less. Contract rates are at records while volume is falling, and lower diesel removes only a few cents a mile.

We also expect DAT’s November van contract rate, due in early December, to print at or above $3.25 a mile, despite cheaper fuel. If it falls below that, it will be because diesel kept dropping, not because trucks came back.

Sources

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