Companies & Markets Oct 14, 2026 · 7 min read

DSV and K+N open forwarder Q3 season under pressure

DSV opens Q3 season with its Road unit on trial. DSV reports third-quarter results on 21 October, a day before Kuehne+Nagel. J.P. Morgan has just cut its Q3 profit forecast for DSV’s Road division to DKK 412m from DKK 715m. Our view: Road, not air or sea, will decide how this quarter is judged. J.P. Morgan says it has “lost conviction” in the Schenker deal’s earnings story. DSV’s own management told analysts to “take a couple of percentage points off” Road. Expect sharp European road pricing as DSV fights to win back lost volume. Our call: on 21 October DSV keeps its 2026 profit range but points to the lower half.

DSV’s Road unit, not the ocean market, will set the tone for Q3
DSV reports third-quarter results on Wednesday 21 October at 07:30 CEST, with a call at 11:00, according to Börse Express. Reuters, as cited by Trading-Treff, says DSV will open the sector’s Q3 reporting season. Kuehne+Nagel (K+N) follows on Thursday 22 October, according to The Loadstar. These are two of the world’s biggest forwarders. What they say sets the mood for Q4 tenders.
The number that matters most this week is not an ocean or air figure. It is a road one. On 9 October J.P. Morgan cut its forecast for DSV’s Q3 Road EBIT (earnings before interest and tax, a standard measure of operating profit) to DKK 412m. Its previous forecast was DKK 715m.
Our view: this quarter will be judged on DSV Road. That is where the DB Schenker takeover is hurting most. Air and sea will matter, but the story is the European truck network.

What the analysts changed

J.P. Morgan cut DSV from Overweight to Neutral on 9 October, Investing.com reported. It cut its price target from DKK 2,165 to DKK 1,400. It also took DSV off its Analyst Focus List.
The bank said it had “lost conviction” in the strong earnings growth it had expected from DSV buying Schenker. It said the pressure on earnings started in Air & Sea and has now spread to Road. It was unusually frank about its own call. “We acknowledge this has been a disappointing stock call,” the bank said.
The detail is stark. According to Investing.com, J.P. Morgan now assumes:

Road gross profit falls 7% year on year in both Q3 and Q4 2026.

Q3 Road EBIT of DKK 412m, down from a forecast of DKK 715m.

Q4 Road EBIT of DKK 580m, down from DKK 1.08bn.

2027 savings from merging Road with Schenker of DKK 750m, down from DKK 3.0bn.

Group 2026 EBIT of DKK 24.23bn, about 5% below its previous forecast.

Group 2027 EBIT of DKK 26.40bn, about 14% lower.

The bank also halved the earnings gains DSV is targeting under its “DSV 3.0” programme. It still expects earnings growth of around 20% a year, helped by a share buyback it assumes restarts in Q1 2027. And it still calls DSV its preferred freight forwarder.
Jefferies also cut its DSV price target earlier in the same week, Börse Express reported. It blamed weak organic growth and slower cost savings at Schenker. It kept a Buy rating.
The market had already moved. DSV shares hit a 52-week low of EUR 151.90 on 8 October, Börse Express said, and were down 29% for the year.

What DSV itself has said

The most telling line came from DSV. On Road’s outlook, management told analysts: “If I was sitting with your spreadsheet, I would probably take a couple of percentage points off.” That is Investing.com’s report of what J.P. Morgan heard. The article ties J.P. Morgan’s view to group calls held in mid-September.
Management also said on-time-in-full delivery reached 93% in mid-September. On-time-in-full, or OTIF, measures the share of shipments delivered on the agreed day and in the right quantity. DSV said 93% was good enough to start winning back lost volume.
Put simply: Road service slipped during the integration, customers moved freight elsewhere, and DSV now thinks service is good enough to ask for it back.
Customers are less sure. J.P. Morgan surveyed more than 300 DSV customers in late September. The result was a net promoter score of 2.5, according to Investing.com. A net promoter score subtracts the share of unhappy customers from the share of keen ones. It runs from minus 100 to plus 100. A score of 2.5 means fans and critics are roughly level. J.P. Morgan read it as a sign that operating problems are not fully fixed.

How we got here

This is a sharp turn from the summer. On 22 July DSV reported Q2 EBIT before special items of DKK 6,255m, up 32.5% year on year, in its H1 report. Its CEO, Jens H. Lund, said “we delivered earnings growth, supported by the Schenker integration”.
Road looked strong on paper then. Q2 Road EBIT before special items was DKK 999m, up 90.5%. But DSV said that figure was helped by Schenker and by gains from selling property. In the same report it flagged lower productivity and weaker volume growth than expected in some European countries. It also said it had changed management there during the quarter.
Air & Sea was steadier. Q2 EBIT before special items was DKK 3,776m, up 9.4%. Its conversion ratio, the share of gross profit that turns into operating profit, rose to 42.4%. DSV said that was the first rise since the Schenker integration began.
DSV narrowed its 2026 EBIT outlook to DKK 23.5–25.5bn, from DKK 23.0–25.5bn. J.P. Morgan’s new DKK 24.23bn sits inside that range, but in the lower half.
K+N had a good summer too. Its Q2 EBIT was CHF 381m, up 11%, Container News reported on 23 July. Air Logistics EBIT rose 35% to CHF 154m. Road Logistics EBIT rose 29% to CHF 36m. K+N raised its 2026 recurring EBIT guidance to CHF 1.35–1.55bn.
Sea was the quieter part of K+N’s quarter. Sea Logistics made Q2 EBIT of CHF 140m on net turnover of CHF 2.2bn, Container News reported. K+N handled 2.1 million TEU (twenty-foot equivalent units, the standard container measure) in the first half. It moved 1.1 million tonnes of air freight over the same period. Those are the baselines to compare against on 22 October.

K+N’s CEO plays it cool

Ahead of his own results, K+N’s CEO Stefan Paul spoke to staff on 14 October, according to The Loadstar. Per the publication’s sources, he told them: “Our culture is second to none, our culture is really important in the company.”
The Loadstar added its own read: “The boss felt relieved, it seemed, that rival DSV is still lagging in the league tables”. That is the reporter’s interpretation, not something Paul is quoted as saying.
The headline frames K+N as aiming for leadership by 2030. The contrast with DSV is clear. One firm is talking about culture. The other is talking about fixing a truck network.

What it means for forwarders and shippers

Here is what we expect, and these are our views.
European road rates. A Road business that wants volume back tends to compete on price. DSV says its service is now good enough to win back customers. The quickest way to do that is with sharp quotes. Expect DSV to bid hard in European groupage (shared-load) and full-truckload tenders through Q4. Rivals, including K+N, DHL and smaller regional players, will feel it.
Service versus price. Shippers should take advantage, but carefully. A 93% OTIF rate means about one in fourteen shipments still misses the agreed day or quantity. Ask any new road partner for lane-level OTIF data, not a network average. Build service penalties into contracts.
Air and sea tenders. If DSV’s Air & Sea numbers on 21 October are soft too, pressure will build to protect margin there. That usually means less appetite for low-margin, high-volume ocean contracts. Mid-sized forwarders may find more room in big shipper tenders as a result.
People and accounts. Integrations on this scale lose staff and customers. Both K+N’s culture message and DSV’s customer survey point to the same thing: the fight is for account managers and the shippers who follow them. Expect more hiring approaches in Europe’s road sales teams this quarter.
Watch the tone, not just the numbers. The headline profit figure matters less than three things. First, whether DSV keeps the DKK 23.5–25.5bn range. Second, what it says about Road volumes since mid-September. Third, whether it repeats its DKK 9bn annual synergy target for the Schenker deal, with the full benefit due in 2027. DSV still expected that in July, Container News reported.

Our call

Our prediction for 21 and 22 October:

DSV reports Q3 Road EBIT below DKK 715m, J.P. Morgan’s old forecast.

DSV keeps its 2026 EBIT range of DKK 23.5–25.5bn but guides toward the lower half. If it cuts the range, the cut will come from the top.

DSV pushes back the timing of part of the Road savings beyond 2027, rather than dropping the target outright.

K+N holds or narrows its CHF 1.35–1.55bn guidance on 22 October, helped by air.

Beyond results week, we expect European road tender rates from DSV to come in visibly below incumbent rates on contested lanes by the end of Q4 2026. If DSV’s Road volume has not stabilised by its Q4 results in early 2027, we expect a further management change in that division within six months.

Sources