Trade & Customs Oct 19, 2026 · 7 min read

Russia oil tariffs signed, then switched off: keep India and China lanes on watch

Trump signs 100% Russia-oil tariffs and waives them in the same order. On 16 October, Trump signed an order adding 500% to duties on Russian goods and 100% on goods from the top five buyers of Russian oil and gas (White House). Section 4 of the same order waives them all, with no end date. Our view: this is a threat put on hold, not a repeal. The order names no countries. Reporting points to China and India (RFE/RL). Our prediction: no Graham Act duty is charged on Indian or Chinese cargo before 31 December. But a breakdown in Ukraine talks would bring the threat back.

Signed and waived: the Russia-oil tariff that can come back without warning
On 16 October, President Trump signed an executive order that sets three large new tariffs. Then, a few paragraphs later, the same order switched all of them off.
On paper, the order raises the duty on goods from Russia by 500%. It adds 100% on goods from the top five importers of Russian crude oil and natural gas, if they “knowingly” make new purchases on or after 18 October 2026. It adds another 100% on goods from the top five “facilitators” of Russian oil-sanctions evasion (White House).
Section 4(a) then reads: “I hereby waive the application of any duties provided for in sections 112 and 113 of the Graham Act or this order.”
Our view is simple. This is not the end of the Russia-oil tariff. It is a tariff that has been loaded, signed and put on a shelf within easy reach. Forwarders handling India and China cargo into the US should plan as if it can come back.

What the order actually does

The order implements the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026. Trump signed that law on 18 September. The Senate passed it 86-11 and the House 262-159, according to IndraStra. The law itself does not impose tariffs. It gives the President the power to impose them, and the power to waive them.
The order uses both powers at once. The rates it sets are large.

Russia: “The rate of duty on goods from the Russian Federation shall be increased by 500 percent ad valorem.” Ad valorem means a percentage of the goods’ value.

Top 5 buyers: plus 100% for countries that keep buying Russian crude or gas from 18 October.

Top 5 facilitators: plus 100% for countries USTR (the Office of the US Trade Representative) identifies as helping Russia dodge oil sanctions.

These would stack. The order says they apply “in addition to any other duty, fee, tax, exaction, or charge”. That includes Section 301 duties (US trade-practice tariffs), Section 232 duties (national-security tariffs on goods like steel), Section 201 and 122 duties, and duties under Title VII of the Tariff Act of 1930, which covers anti-dumping and countervailing duties (White House).
The waiver goes beyond tariffs. Section 4 also waives most of the law’s sanctions sections. The order states that existing Russia sanctions are not affected.
The only reason the order gives is that the President certified the waiver “is in the national interests of the United States”. It sets no end date. The waivers stay in force until the President or the Secretary of State, consulting the Treasury and USTR as needed, decides “further action is appropriate”.
The order does not name any country. It also does not mention CBP, the agency that would collect the duties.

Why we call it a loaded gun

Three things keep this threat alive.
First, the duties are written down. A future change does not need a new law or a new order. It needs a decision to lift a waiver.
Second, USTR keeps working. The order tells USTR to monitor purchases of Russian oil and gas, report to the President, recommend further action, and name the top five facilitators. Before the order, USTR head Jamieson Greer said of the reporting duty: “We have to name names — so we’ll be doing that.” (Morung Express/IANS) Once a list exists, the target is clear.
Third, the reason given for the waiver is tied to diplomacy. On 18 October, Trump defended it in a Truth Social post. Outlook India reports he said he did not want to put talks to end the war in Ukraine at risk or push Moscow away from the table. He also said he could sign the sanctions-related document later (Outlook India). If the talks fail, the stated reason for the waiver goes with them.
Critics noticed the open-ended terms. “Shockingly, these waivers don’t even have an expiration date,” Mykola Murskyj of Razom for Ukraine said, according to RFE/RL. Rep. Don Bacon said: “The President is prolonging the war, not ending it.” RFE/RL also reports, citing sources, that the administration missed an 8 October deadline to give Congress the written justification the law requires before tariffs start. The White House has argued the waiver serves the national interest and keeps a path to talks open.

Who would have been hit

The order names no one. But the law’s targets are not hard to guess. RFE/RL describes the law as authorising tariffs of up to 100% on major buyers of Russian oil and gas, “including China and India”. IANS reports India is the second-largest buyer of Russian crude after China on unofficial rankings (Morung Express/IANS).
The volumes are large. The National reported that Russian crude rose to nearly 50% of India’s imports by July, or 2.96 million barrels per day. China’s Russian imports were 1.89 million barrels per day. About 800,000 barrels per day of that comes by pipeline under long-term contracts.
So is the trade at stake. In the first seven months of 2026, the US bought $58.9 billion of goods from India, according to US Census Bureau data cited by The National. The US deficit with China over the same period was $91.2 billion.
Analysts doubted buyers would simply stop. “Replacing Russian crude at current volumes would be challenging or impossible,” said Sumit Ritolia, lead analyst at Kpler. Janiv Shah of Rystad Energy said “China and India are the key pressure points”. He expected refiners to seek exemptions, cut spot purchases and push for wider discounts rather than stop buying (The National).
India’s own finance ministry flagged the risk in its September review: “Trade relations with the United States remain unsettled with the passage of the Graham Bill through the Congress” (Swarajya).

What happened last time

India has been here before. In August 2025, an order under IEEPA (an emergency-powers law) added a 25% duty on Indian goods over Russian oil purchases. On 6 February 2026, Trump removed it, saying India had committed to stop buying Russian oil. On 20 February, the Supreme Court ruled that IEEPA does not authorise tariffs (IndraStra).
The lesson for us: Russia-oil tariffs on India have already gone on, come off and lost their legal footing once. The Graham Act gives the White House a firmer legal basis than IEEPA did, because Congress passed it for this purpose. That makes any comeback harder to challenge in court.
Today Indian goods face a 10% Section 301 duty, IANS reports. Any Graham Act duty would come on top. IndraStra reported in late September that US-India trade talks were continuing. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is scheduled to visit Mumbai and Jamnagar from 19 to 22 October (Morung Express/IANS). Jamnagar is home to Reliance Industries’ refinery complex.

What forwarders should do now

Nothing changes at the border this week. The duties are waived, so no Graham Act tariff applies to any entry today.
But we think three steps are worth taking.

Run the numbers. Show your India and China customers what an extra 100% on customs value would do to landed cost, on top of current 301 and 232 duties. Most shippers have not modelled a duty of that size.

Watch USTR, not just the White House. The first sign of trouble is likely to be a USTR report naming the top five buyers or facilitators. That list turns a general threat into a specific one.

Read the warning period carefully. The law asks for written justification to Congress before duties start; IANS puts that at least 10 days ahead. But that notice goes to Congress, not the public. Do not count on 10 days of public warning.

There is also a front-loading risk. Ziemba Insights’ Rachel Ziemba said the threat “could incentivise more purchases from Russia to get ahead of any future risks” (The National). The same logic applies to US importers. If the threat returns, expect a rush to ship India and China cargo before any start date. That would mean tight space and higher spot rates on transpacific and India–US lanes for a few weeks.

Our call

We expect the waiver to hold through 31 December 2026. No Graham Act duty will be charged on Indian or Chinese goods before then. The White House has tied the waiver to Ukraine talks, and Rubio’s India visit points to a trade deal, not a tariff.
The risk sits in the first quarter of 2027. If Ukraine talks break down, we expect USTR to publish its top-five list within weeks. A short pre-tariff shipping rush on India–US lanes would follow. Forwarders who have priced that scenario for their customers will be ready for it.

Sources