Tuesday, November 10, 2026
The news that moves freight
Geopolitics Nov 10, 2026 · 8 min read

Russia names container ships as Black Sea targets

Russia now calls container ships targets, and Ukraine’s feeder lifeline is in the way

Russia’s Defence Ministry said its forces hit three cargo ships in the Black Sea overnight into Sunday 8 November. Two of them, it said, were container ships. One was “delivering weapons and military equipment to the Black Sea port of Odesa”, according to the Reuters report carried by SRN News. The other was in the port of Chornomorsk, also in the Odesa region. A third ship, a dry cargo vessel, was hit southwest of Odesa, the ministry said.

TASS quoted the ministry’s wording for the Chornomorsk ship: “in the port of Chernomorsk - a container ship carrying properties and dual-use cargoes to Ukraine”. Dual-use means goods that have both civilian and military uses, such as electronics, vehicles or some machinery.

No ships were named. Reuters said it “could not independently verify the ministry’s claims”. Ukraine gave no immediate comment. The same night, Russia said it hit two power substations. Ukrainian utility DTEK said more than 600,000 people in Dnipropetrovsk region lost power, and that “Important energy facilities in the region were damaged in an overnight attack”.

Why the word “container” matters

Our view: whether these strikes happened as described matters less than what Russia chose to say. Much of the Black Sea risk debate has been about tankers and grain bulkers. Russia has now publicly put box ships, and the cargo inside them, on its list of legitimate targets.

That changes the risk for every party in a Ukraine container move. A container ship can carry thousands of boxes from hundreds of shippers. If one declared item is “dual-use” in Moscow’s eyes, the whole ship can be painted as a military target. That is a problem no single shipper can fix by declaring its own cargo correctly.

It is also a pattern, not a one-off. Maritime security firm Palaemon counted Russian claims of strikes on cargo ships in or near Odesa, Pivdennyi and Chornomorsk on 3–4, 6 and 8 November. Palaemon did not count any of them in its own tally, because none was independently confirmed. Its weekly report rated the Black Sea “Quiet” for confirmed attacks on merchant ships. So there is a gap between what can be proven and what is being claimed. Insurers and carriers price the claims, not the proof.

What insurers are quoting

War-risk insurance is the extra cover a ship buys for each voyage into a listed war zone. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the ship’s value. On 9 November, UkrAgroConsult, republishing Splash247 and citing The Insurer, reported that premiums for some of the most exposed Black Sea voyages have reached 20% of a vessel’s value. The report said that is “exceeding even the peak levels recorded during the Iran-Iraq tanker war in the 1980s”. In that conflict, rates reached 7.5% and occasionally went above 10%, the report said.

Two caveats matter. First, the 20% quotes apply to some ships calling at the CPC oil terminal at Novorossiysk, a Russian port. Second, the report said “most insurance quotations remain substantially below this level”. So 20% is the ceiling, not the going rate for a feeder into Odesa.

Still, the direction is clear. The Joint War Committee, the London market group that lists high-risk waters, widened its Black Sea listing in circular JWLA-035 on 16 September, according to Palaemon. The listed area is now the Black Sea “excluding territorial waters of adjoining countries other than Russia and Ukraine”. Ships entering a listed area typically have to notify their war-risk underwriters, who can charge extra premium or set conditions. The US Maritime Administration’s advisory 2026-012 on the Black Sea and Sea of Azov runs from 23 September 2026 to 22 March 2027, Palaemon noted.

Carriers have already started charging

CMA CGM’s war-risk surcharge on Black Sea cargo took effect on 9 November. Its customer notice, published by AJOT on 30 October, sets the charge at $35 per TEU (one 20-foot container) on all cargo to and from Black Sea countries. The notice says it follows after “the Black Sea maritime area was designated a war risk zone by the Joint War Committee”. Shipments subject to filing rules in the US, Australia, New Zealand and Latin American countries pick it up on 1 December. UkrAgroConsult’s report lists Constanta, Varna, Burgas and Poti among the ports covered.

MSC already charges extra on Asia to Black Sea cargo, but not for war risk. Its 3 September advisory added a $55 per TEU piracy risk surcharge and a $36 per TEU Suez Canal surcharge from 15 September. Constanta, Varna, Burgas and Odesa are on its destination list. That shows how surcharges stack. A shipper booking Asia to the Black Sea can now face piracy and Suez charges and a Black Sea war-risk charge on the same box, depending on the carrier.

History: how containers got back to Ukraine

Ukraine’s container trade has been rebuilt slowly and on thin margins. In April 2024, the first containers to reach Ukraine’s Black Sea ports since Russia’s 2022 invasion arrived on the T-Mare. That was a 373 TEU general cargo ship chartered by Turkish forwarder Sea Pioneer Denizcilik to run a feeder between Constanta and Odesa, India Sea Trade News reported at the time. A feeder is a small ship that moves boxes between a big hub port and smaller ports. The first call carried mostly Maersk boxes.

That model has already been tested this year. On 22 July, Maritime Executive reported that Maersk had temporarily suspended its service to Chornomorsk as attacks on ports and ships increased. Its feeder, the 1,162 TEU Medkon Mira, was diverted to Constanta to land its boxes there. Maersk asked customers to request inland transport rates between Ukraine and Romania, or change the destination. On 31 July, Maritime Executive reported that Hapag-Lloyd had halted feeder calls to Chornomorsk, Odesa and Pivdennyi “until further notice”. It named Reni, a Ukrainian port on the Danube river, as its preferred alternative, with Romania or Poland as case-by-case options.

So the fallback is already known. When the Ukrainian ports get too risky, boxes stop at Constanta and go overland or up the Danube. Our view: the new Russian language puts pressure on that fallback too. The feeders that cross from Constanta to Odesa are exactly the ships now being described as targets. If owners refuse that last leg, Constanta has to absorb more Ukrainian volume by truck and rail.

What this means for forwarders

Here is what we expect forwarders to see in the next few weeks.

Cargo insurance gets harder on Ukraine-bound goods. Expect underwriters to ask for fuller cargo descriptions on project cargo, machinery, vehicles and electronics. Some dual-use shipments will be declined or priced up. Build that time into quotes.

Quote validity gets shorter. With war-risk premiums moving voyage by voyage, carriers and feeder operators will hold rates for days, not weeks. Do not promise customers a fixed all-in rate into Odesa for a December sailing.

The Constanta-plus-overland routing becomes the base case for planning. Get truck and rail rates from Constanta to Ukrainian destinations now, before more volume competes for them. Check what the Danube option via Reni costs on your lanes.

Watch the surcharge stack on Black Sea bookings. CMA CGM’s $35 per TEU is small next to freight, but the US filing date of 1 December means US-origin shippers have not seen it yet. Other lines will look at the same Joint War Committee listing and reach the same answer.

There is one swing factor. Reuters, via Al-Monitor, reported on 2 November that US-mediated talks between Ukraine and Russia are set for Abu Dhabi on 10–11 November. US envoy Steve Witkoff said they would cover “post-war security agreements, de-escalation, humanitarian measures, and ending the war”. Black Sea shipping was not named. A separate Turkey and UN effort on a Black Sea truce for grain was launched in September, gCaptain reported on 1 October. But Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov called a return to the 2022 grain deal “completely unacceptable and unrealistic”. Our view: a deal that makes insurers relax before year end is unlikely.

Our call

Our call: by 30 November, at least one container or feeder service will skip, suspend or reroute a call at Constanta, Varna or Burgas, citing security. We also expect another of the ten biggest container lines, besides CMA CGM, to announce a war-risk or emergency charge on bookings to Constanta, Varna or Burgas by 30 November. If the Abu Dhabi talks produce a named Black Sea shipping truce before then, we would expect the surcharge half of that call to slip, but not the rerouting half.

Sources

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