Sunday, October 25, 2026
The news that moves freight
Geopolitics Oct 25, 2026 · 8 min read

Houthis aim at Yanbu, the Saudi bypass around Hormuz, as Egypt votes Monday

Houthi missiles aimed at Yanbu put Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea bypass in play. On Saturday the Saudi-led coalition said it shot down two Houthi ballistic missiles aimed at Yanbu and Taif, plus one aimed at Riyadh. The Houthis say they hit the East-West crude pipeline, which ends at Yanbu. That claim is unconfirmed. Our view: this is the target that matters most. Aramco says the pipeline can now carry 7 million barrels a day around a shut Hormuz, up from 2 million. Brent was already over $117. Expect fuel surcharges to follow. Egypt votes Monday on sending troops. Our call: if Saudi Arabia launches a ground offensive, a major carrier pauses or drops a Jeddah call by early December.

Yanbu is in the crosshairs, and Saudi Arabia’s way around Hormuz runs through it

On Saturday 24 October the Saudi-led coalition said its air defences had “intercepted and destroyed two ballistic missiles” fired by the Houthis at Taif and Yanbu, in the kingdom’s west (Gulf News). Earlier that day, coalition spokesman Turki al-Malki said: “Air defences intercepted and destroyed a ballistic missile launched by the Houthi terrorist militia toward Riyadh.” Saudi civil defence later said debris from the two western missiles fell at several places, including “Wadi Al Mughammas in Mecca.”

The Houthis, the Iran-backed group that controls much of northern Yemen, made bigger claims. Spokesman Yahya Saree said they had hit King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh “in two phases”, airports at Dammam and Najran, the Khamis Mushait air base, and “crude oil pumping stations and the crude oil pipeline from east to west” (Gulf News). None of that damage has been confirmed by Saudi Arabia or anyone independent.

Our view is simple. Of everything the Houthis have aimed at so far, Yanbu and the East-West pipeline matter most to freight. Airports and air bases are painful. But this pipe is how Saudi Arabia keeps exporting oil while the Strait of Hormuz is closed. If it stops, the oil shock that forwarders are already paying for through fuel surcharges gets worse fast.

Why Yanbu matters more than another airport

Yanbu sits on Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coast. CBS News describes it as a “major oil export hub on the Red Sea coast” that has helped Riyadh bypass Hormuz for much of its crude. The East-West pipeline carries crude across the kingdom from the east to Yanbu.

That pipe has become central. On 23 October CBS News reported Aramco president Amin Nasser as saying the pipeline’s capacity has risen from 2 million to 7 million barrels a day, more than tripling the volume that bypasses Hormuz. Aramco has been using drones to assess Houthi damage to its infrastructure.

Yanbu is not untouched. On 1 October “an unidentified projectile struck inside Yanbu port”, starting a fire and briefly halting loading of a Liberian-flagged tanker, according to DefenceWeb. Loading later resumed. Nobody established where the projectile came from. DefenceWeb also reported that the incident followed an earlier drone attack that disrupted the East-West pipeline.

Saturday’s missiles were stopped. But the pattern is now clear: the Houthis are probing the one route that keeps Saudi crude flowing to the world.

The oil price is already doing the talking

The market has priced a lot of this in. CBS News reported Brent crude “rose 3.5% to over $117” on 23 October, its highest since March. It was under $97 at the start of October. That is a rise of more than 20% in about three weeks.

Hormuz itself shows no sign of opening. Iran’s armed forces chief Ali Abdollahi said on Saturday: “We will not allow US military ships in the Arabian Gulf under any circumstances and at any time” (Gulf News). Iran’s ambassador to Islamabad said Tehran could reopen the strait if Washington lifted its naval blockade. The IRGC Navy also claimed two supertankers carrying more than 4.5 million barrels of crude between them hit mines on Friday while using what it called an “unauthorised southern route”. Those claims are not independently confirmed.

Shipping across the region is under fire too. DefenceWeb reported that “Twelve vessels were attacked between 5 and 11 October”, which it called the largest weekly number reported to UKMTO (UK Maritime Trade Operations, which logs attacks on ships) since the war with Iran began. The Houthis declared a blockade on Saudi-linked shipping through Bab el-Mandeb, the narrow strait at the southern end of the Red Sea, in July.

So both of the Gulf’s exits are now under fire. Iran says Hormuz is shut. The Saudi bypass ends on a Red Sea coast the Houthis are shooting at.

For forwarders, this lands as cost. Carriers pass fuel prices through BAF (bunker adjustment factor, the fuel surcharge on ocean freight) and, when prices jump, through emergency bunker surcharges added at short notice. Our opinion: a confirmed hit on Yanbu’s terminals or the pipeline would push Brent higher again, and carriers would move surcharges within days, not months.

Egypt votes on Monday

The second thread runs through Cairo. Egypt’s parliament is due to vote on Monday 26 October on letting President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi send forces to defend Saudi Arabia, according to NewsCord, which aggregates AFP and other reporting. Under Article 152 of the constitution, a combat mission abroad needs a two-thirds majority of parliament.

Sisi has framed it narrowly. “We’re talking only about defence,” he said. Gulf News reported he has said Egypt would defend Saudi territory but “would not participate in any attack on Yemen.”

Not everyone is comfortable. The Egyptian Social Democratic Party told its lawmakers to abstain, saying parliament had not been told enough about “the mission’s objectives, duration, cost, or the risks to Egyptian troops.” The party has nearly a dozen seats, and two of its MPs told AFP that most of its lawmakers support the measure anyway.

Egypt has its own freight stake. According to its foreign minister, the Suez Canal has lost about $11bn since the Houthis began attacks in the Bab al-Mandeb strait in 2023 (NewsCord). Analyst Thomas Bonnie James put it bluntly: “the Houthi security threat to Saudi Arabia also threatens the Suez Canal.”

Our view: Egypt is likely to pass the vote, framed as defence only. But Egyptian forces in Saudi Arabia would give the Houthis a reason to treat Egypt as a party to the war. That matters for the canal at exactly the moment carriers are coming back to it.

Carriers are still edging back to Suez

While all this happens, the biggest alliance on the Asia-Europe trades is still returning services to the Red Sea. Gemini, the Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd partnership, is moving its Asia-Med Loop 1 (Maersk calls it AE12, Hapag-Lloyd SE1) back through Suez in both directions, according to The Loadstar. The first westbound Suez sailing was Hapag-Lloyd’s 14,500 TEU Umm Qarn, scheduled to leave Tanjung Pelepas in Malaysia on 17 October. That makes it the fourth mainline Gemini service back on Suez. The three Asia-North Europe loops stay on the Cape of Good Hope.

The gain is real. Using Xeneta’s eeSea data, The Loadstar said the round voyage drops from 98 days to 84, and the ships needed for a weekly service fall from 14 to 12.

But the carriers have hedged every step. Hapag-Lloyd said: “Each transit remains subject to a thorough security review and will take place under naval protection.” It added: “This remains a gradual, service-specific approach, and does not constitute a strategic return.” Marine Insight, reporting on Maersk’s September announcement, said: “Any changes to Gemini services will depend on there being no escalation in conflicts in the region.”

Missiles aimed at Yanbu, on the same sea these ships sail through, look like escalation to us. We do not think Gemini will reverse AE12 on Saturday’s events alone, because the missiles were stopped. But the condition the carriers set themselves is now being tested every day.

What forwarders should do now

Three practical points.

First, fuel. If you quote all-in rates on any lane, build in room for an emergency bunker surcharge. Brent has moved more than $20 a barrel this month. A confirmed hit at Yanbu would add to that.

Second, Saudi Arabia by sea. Jeddah, the kingdom’s big container gateway on the Red Sea, sits on the same coast as Yanbu. The Houthi blockade of Saudi-linked shipping is already in place. If Egypt sends troops and Saudi Arabia escalates on the ground, carriers will look hard at whether a Jeddah call is worth the war-risk premium and the crew risk.

Third, Saudi Arabia by air. Indian carriers have extended their Saudi suspensions several times this month. On 16 October Gulf News reported IndiGo’s Riyadh, Jeddah, Dammam and Madinah flights cancelled to 24 October, and Akasa Air’s Riyadh flights suspended to the same date. By 24 October Akasa had pushed its Riyadh suspension to 30 November (Gulf News). Riyadh’s airport said on Saturday it would resume flights “effective Sunday” (CBS News). We read that as a partial reopening, not a return to normal capacity. Book Saudi air freight via Dubai or Abu Dhabi with buffer, and do not assume belly space on direct passenger flights comes back quickly.

Our calls

These are our predictions. Saturday’s events make them more likely, not less.

At sea: if Saudi Arabia launches a ground offensive against the Houthis, we expect at least one major container carrier to pause or drop a Jeddah call by early December.

In the air: King Khalid International in Riyadh stays on restricted, prior-permission operations, with no European belly capacity back, until at least mid-November. Over the four weeks to mid-November, we expect Saudi-bound air rates via Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Dammam to rise as freight squeezes through fewer gateways.

Sources