Monday, October 26, 2026
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Geopolitics Oct 26, 2026 · 7 min read

Russia claims hits on two more ships bound for Odesa and Chornomorsk

Russia says it hit two Odesa-bound cargo ships. No one has confirmed it. Russia’s Defence Ministry said on Sunday its drones hit two cargo ships, one bound for Chornomorsk and one for Odesa. It named neither ship. Reuters could not verify the claim. Our view: verified or not, the claim tells owners any ship serving Ukraine is a target. That lifts war-risk cover (extra insurance for war zones) across the corridor. War-risk cover for Black Sea port calls already costs about 1% of a ship’s insured value (Beinsure). Our prediction: by end of November, underwriters will quote Romanian anchorages, Sulina included, at a clear premium, and named war-risk charges will show up on Romanian calls.

Russia names Odesa and Chornomorsk as targets, and the whole corridor pays

Russia’s Defence Ministry said on Sunday 25 October that its drones hit two more cargo ships in Ukrainian trade. One was bound for Chornomorsk and was struck overnight. The second was heading for Odesa and was struck during the day. According to Reuters, as republished by gCaptain, “The ministry said the vessels were being used to supply the Ukrainian army.” The ministry also said it hit a logistics centre, a distribution centre and a logistics terminal in Kharkiv. It said these stored dual-use cargo (goods with civilian and military uses) for Ukraine’s forces.

Neither ship was named. No crew numbers, flags or positions were given. Reuters was plain about it: “Reuters could not independently verify the Defence Ministry’s information.” So treat this as a claim, not a confirmed event.

What we think it means

Our view: the claim matters even if it turns out to be false. Russia is telling shipowners, in public, that it regards any ship serving Odesa or Chornomorsk as a supply ship for the army. That is a threat aimed at the people who decide whether to fix a vessel (agree a charter) for a Ukrainian cargo. Owners, charterers and underwriters do not wait for a ship’s name before they reprice. They price the threat.

We also think the risk no longer sits neatly inside Ukrainian waters. The attacks this month have reached the sea lanes off Romania and Bulgaria, both NATO members. That is the route most Ukrainian trade uses to reach the Bosporus. A forwarder can no longer assume that a call at Constanta or a transit past Sulina is the safe half of the voyage.

The record since 5 October

The run of attacks this month is what gives Sunday’s claim weight. Details below are as reported by the outlets named.

  • 5 October. The St Kitts and Nevis-flagged Royad Mammadov caught fire and sank outside Romania’s territorial waters after last docking at Izmail in Ukraine. Two people died and 11 crew were rescued (Newcastle Herald, 6 October). Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called it “A horrific strike by two Russian drones on a civilian vessel in neutral waters carrying corn and owned by Türkiye.”
  • 5 to 6 October. Two general cargo ships were hit by aerial and sea drones overnight in Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ, the band of sea out to 200 nautical miles where a country controls resources). One sank. A vessel carrying rapeseed oil was damaged in the Odesa region, and one person died (gCaptain/Bloomberg, 6 October). Madeleine Overgaard of the data firm Kpler said both ships hit overnight were sailing to or from Ukrainian ports.
  • 13 to 15 October. AP reported the San Marino-flagged tanker Wine Trader struck by a drone and catching fire about 13 nautical miles south-east of Sulina, with seven crew missing. Off Bulgaria, the cargo ship HS Dignity was hit with 11 crew missing, and the Ukrainian-operated Chelsea 3 was hit, with all 15 crew evacuated (NY1/AP, 15 October).
  • 23 October. The Comoros-flagged Khoryv sank off Constanta after sending a distress signal about 13 nautical miles out, just beyond Romania’s territorial waters. One body was recovered, nine crew were rescued and three were missing (gCaptain/Reuters, 24 October). Romania’s President Nicusor Dan said: “It is part of Russia’s escalation process in its war in Ukraine.”
  • 25 October. Russia’s unverified claim of two more hits, on ships bound for Chornomorsk and Odesa.

By our count of those reports, that is at least eight merchant ships hit in three weeks, before Sunday’s two claims. Bulgaria’s Prime Minister Rumen Radev summed up the commercial cost on 6 October. He said the attacks drive “up insurance costs even further” (gCaptain/Bloomberg).

What cover costs now

War-risk insurance is a separate policy that covers a ship against war, mines, drones and similar threats. Normal hull insurance excludes them. When a ship enters waters on the London market’s Joint War Committee (JWC) “Listed Area”, the owner usually has to tell insurers and pay an additional premium for that voyage. The premium is quoted as a percentage of the ship’s insured value.

On 16 September the JWC widened its Listed Area to cover most of the Black Sea. The territorial waters of Türkiye, Bulgaria, Romania and Georgia stayed outside it (Beinsure, 23 September). Territorial waters run 12 nautical miles from the coast. Both the Khoryv and the Wine Trader were hit about 13 miles out, just past that line.

Beinsure reported that “War-risk premiums for Black Sea port calls climbed to about 1% of a vessel’s insured value”. It said that compared with roughly 0.6% to 0.8% in late December. Marelis Navigation estimated extra war-risk cost at “roughly $25,000 per day for a large vessel” calling at Greater Odesa. Beinsure put that at about $150,000 for a six-day call, or about $2 to $3 per tonne of cargo.

For history: in December 2025, market sources told Insurance Business that additional war-risk premiums “for a standard seven-day voyage to Ukrainian ports have moved up to about 0.5%”. That was up from around 0.4% a little over a week earlier. The measures differ, so they are not a neat like-for-like series. But the direction since late 2025 is one way: up. Our view is that every new attack makes the next quote harder to bring down.

There is a catch in the 1% figure. Insurers charge for time in the risk area, then adjust. As Beinsure put it, “Insurers usually charge cover for an initial period, then adjust the amount against actual time spent in the risk area.” Any delay waiting at anchor costs more.

What it means for forwarders and shippers

Our read for each lane:

Ukrainian grain and bulk from Odesa, Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi. Fewer owners will offer tonnage, and those who do will want more. Expect owners to pass war-risk premiums to charterers as a separate line, and to add crew war bonuses. If you sell on delivered terms such as CIF (cost, insurance and freight, where the seller pays freight and insurance), that cost lands on you. Check who carries war-risk in your sale contracts and charter parties now, not after the next strike.

Project and breakbulk cargo into Ukraine. These moves need specific ships with cranes or heavy-lift gear. That pool is small. A credible threat to “supply” ships hits it hardest, because Russia’s language covers almost anything that is not grain. Allow more lead time and get firm quotes with a war-risk clause that says who pays if the rate changes after booking.

Danube ports, Sulina and Constanta. These have been the fallback when the Odesa ports looked too risky. Bloomberg, via gCaptain, said Romanian and Bulgarian ports including Constanta, Varna and Burgas “have provided important alternatives”. It added that growing risks around those routes threaten to narrow those options, “with potential consequences for freight costs and grain prices.” We agree. The Khoryv and Wine Trader hits show the waters just outside Romania’s 12-mile line are now in play.

Containers out of the Black Sea. Separately, MSC will add an Emergency Operations Surcharge (EOS) of $200, €200 or £200 per container from Greece, Türkiye, the Black Sea and non-Italian Adriatic ports to North-West Europe, the UK and Scandinavia-Baltic. It applies from 1 November 2026 by bill of lading date. Container News reported that “The surcharge will remain in place until further notice.” According to MSC, as reported by Container News, it “reflects additional costs arising from the current market and operational environment”. It does not cite the attacks, so we would not read it as a war-risk charge. But any quote you have issued for November loadings on these lanes needs the $200 added.

Our prediction

We think Sunday’s claim supports this call. By end of November 2026, war-risk underwriters will quote Romanian anchorages, including Sulina, at a clear premium to the rest of the western Black Sea. Owners will pass that on as surcharges on Danube and Constanta bulk cargo.

We expect the first visible sign to be owners and carriers adding a named war-risk charge on Romanian calls within weeks, before the end of November. If Russia follows Sunday’s claim with a named, verified hit inside Ukrainian port limits, we would expect owners to start asking for that charge on Odesa and Chornomorsk calls as well, on top of the roughly 1% Black Sea rate.

Sources