What’s going on in freight

Ocean carriers are cashing record prices while the forecasts turn down: Maersk lifted its 2026 outlook and still lost 11% of its share price, and Xeneta expects spot rates to fall 30% in 2027. Around them, war risk keeps shifting, from Iran’s conditions on Hormuz to Houthi missiles at Saudi Arabia and owners refusing Black Sea calls, while CBP tightens who can act as a foreign importer of record.

War, chokepoints and disruption

• Iran’s security chief Mohsen Rezaei says the Strait of Hormuz stays shut until the US meets “seven conditions”, and Iranian forces claimed on 5 November that at least five tankers and a tug were damaged in and near the strait; the claims are unverified. Maersk has filed a $2,000 per 40ft peak season surcharge from Asia to the Gulf from 16 November. (Jerusalem Post, Al Jazeera, Maersk) Our story →
• About 34 commercial ships a day passed Bab al-Mandab from 1 to 4 November, up from about 28 the week before, Gulf News reports. On 5 November Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea oil port of Yanbu got a danger alert and the Saudi-led coalition said it shot down a Houthi missile aimed at Medina. (Gulf News, Dawn) Our story →
• France’s national strike day stopped Le Havre’s container terminals for 24 hours from 06:00 on 5 November, and tug crews slow towage from 08:00 Friday to 08:00 Saturday, nearly 50 hours in all. It is the country’s second port strike in a week. (Deep Arrival, Kuehne+Nagel) Our story →
• Some shipowners are trying to refuse orders to Romanian and Bulgarian ports, gCaptain reported on 5 November, after Ambrey logged 10 Russian strikes on ships between 5 and 28 October. A storm has shut Constanta since 2 November, and CMA CGM adds a $35 per TEU Black Sea war-risk charge from 9 November. (gCaptain, Trans.info, SteelOrbis) Our story →

Rates and markets

• Xeneta forecasts global ocean spot rates will fall 30% in 2027 and contract rates only 5%, with fleet growth of 6.8% outrunning demand growth of 2.5–4%. Drewry’s World Container Index slipped 1% to $4,389 per 40ft on 5 November, with Shanghai–Los Angeles flat at $7,539. (Xeneta, Drewry) Our story →
• DHL says tight international air capacity added about €100m to Express profit in the third quarter, and Emirates SkyCargo grew cargo revenue about 50% on 1% less tonnage. Air rates are splitting: in the week to 2 November Shanghai rose 2.8% while London Heathrow fell 23.2%. (DHL Group, Air Cargo News, STAT Times) Our story →

Tariffs, customs and policy

• From 5 January 2027, a foreign importer of record can clear US goods only if it is CTPAT-validated or files through a CTPAT-validated broker, under a CBP rule publishing on 6 November. CBP says 32% of foreign importers don’t meet that today, and it has separately warned some CTPAT importers their numbers may be voided from 18 November. (Federal Register, STR, GHY) Our story →

Forwarders, carriers and deals

• Maersk raised its 2026 underlying EBITDA guidance to $14.0–14.5bn on 5 November, but its shares fell about 11% because Q3 EBITDA of $4.7bn missed the $5.04bn analysts expected. Its earnings are coming from price: spot rates rose 46% on the previous quarter while ocean volumes were largely flat. (Maersk, Yahoo Finance, The Private Banker) Our story →

Software, AI and automation

• Kodiak AI signed a binding deal on 5 November to put its driverless system in 75 trucks owned by DTL Transport, and named IKEA Supply as its first driverless long-haul customer on Dallas–Houston. Q3 revenue was $2.97m and free cash flow was minus $38.0m, against $113.6m in cash. (GlobeNewswire) Our story →
• Warehouse humanoid maker Agility Robotics started trading on Nasdaq as AGLT on 5 November, opening at $11.26 and falling nearly 10% in its first hours. It booked $1.8m of revenue in 2025 and is valued at $2.5bn. (TipRanks, Runtime Wire) Our story →

Coming up

• Friday 6 November: CBP’s foreign importer of record rule is published in the Federal Register Our story →
• Friday 6 November, 08:00 to Saturday 7 November, 08:00: tug slowdown at Le Havre Our story →
• Monday 9 November: CMA CGM’s $35 per TEU Black Sea war-risk surcharge starts Our story →
• 16 November: Maersk’s Asia–Gulf peak season surcharge starts (19 November from Vietnam, 22 November from South Korea) Our story →
• Wednesday 18 November, 12:01am ET: CBP may void some CTPAT importers’ IOR numbers Our story →
• Around 19 November: Drewry’s week-47 World Container Index Our story →
• End of 2026: Kodiak’s target for launching driverless long-haul service Our story →
• 5 January 2027: CBP’s CTPAT requirement for foreign importers of record takes effect Our story →
• 6 May 2027: all customs brokers must fully comply with the new verification duty Our story →